000
FLUS42 KJAX 170751
HWOJAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
351 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
INLAND SECTIONS. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO ONE TO THREE MILES IN
SOME LOCATIONS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION WHEN DRIVING
THROUGH FOG. USE LOW BEAMS... REDUCE DRIVING SPEED...AND ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER CARS. YOU CAN OVERTAKE
ANOTHER VEHICLE QUICKLY IN POOR VISIBILITIES...SO SLOW DOWN AND
DRIVE DEFENSIVELY.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SURF
AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO THE AREA BEACHES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT TRAINS OVER COASTAL AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

000
FXUS62 KJAX 170734
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER WILL REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MID LEVELS
TODAY WILL TRIGGER STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING MAX HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
ONCE SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT MORE ON
THE ORDER OF GARDEN VARIETY TSTM ACTIVITY ON THU AND FRI...AND
AGAIN MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TODAY BUT WILL TURN A BIT
COOLER ON THU/FRI AS ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. 

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE AND ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVES ALOFT TO PROMOTE
RAINFALL IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
FORECASTS TO REFINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE
LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER INLAND
AREAS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE TEMPO LIFR DUE TO BKN005 CIGS AT ALL SITES 
THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR THIS MORNING AT SSI...JAX AND CRG WITH LOW 
CIGS FOLLOWING FROPA. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH GNV BY MID-MORNING. 
VCTS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN. 

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC LEVELS THU OVER 
OUR GA WATERS...WITH SCA LIKELY OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A 
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  65  84  62 /  40  20  30  20 
SSI  82  71  82  72 /  40  30  40  30 
JAX  86  70  83  68 /  50  30  40  20 
SGJ  86  74  83  73 /  50  40  50  30 
GNV  88  69  85  67 /  50  30  40  20 
OCF  89  69  86  67 /  60  40  40  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ENYEDI

000
NWUS52 KJAX 081345
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 AM     TROPICAL STORM   PALM COAST              29.57N 81.21W 
09/05/2008                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            A HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A 49 MPH GUST TO EMERGENCY 
            MANAGEMENT. HE IS LOCATED IN A CANAL FRONT HOME IN PALM 
            COAST AND WAS USING A DAVIS WEATHER STATION INSTRUMENT. 
            THIS INSTRUMENT WAS MOUNTED ON HIS ROOF WITH AN ELEVATION
            OF APPROXIMATELY 25 FEET.

0745 AM     TROPICAL STORM   FLAGLER BEACH           29.47N 81.13W 
09/05/2008                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            FLAGLER BEACH FIRE DEPARTMENT HAD A MEASURED WIND GUST OF
            43 MPH AT 745 AM.

1200 PM     HIGH SURF        FLAGLER BEACH           29.47N 81.13W 
09/05/2008                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            FLAGLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY REPORTED SURF 
            OF 5 TO 6 FEET WAS OCCURRING NEAR NOON.

1250 PM     HIGH SURF        JACKSONVILLE BEACH      30.28N 81.39W 
09/05/2008                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC          

            JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER REPORTED 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS 
            WITH AN OCCASIONAL 8 FOOTER. 

1250 PM     HIGH SURF        ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH     29.84N 81.27W 
09/05/2008                   ST. JOHNS          FL   PUBLIC          

            A SURF SHOP REPORTED SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH AN 
            OCCASIONAL 8 FOOTER.

0125 PM     HIGH SURF        2 SE ST. SIMONS         31.16N 81.36W 
09/05/2008                   AMZ450             GA   PUBLIC          

            OCEAN MOTION SURF SHOP IN SAINT SIMONS ISLAND REPORTED 
            WAVES 4 TO 4.5 FEET AT SAINT SIMONS ISLAND.

0131 PM     HIGH SURF        JACKSONVILLE BEACH      30.28N 81.39W 
09/05/2008                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC          

            JACKSONVILLE BEACH LIFESAVING STATION REPORTED NEARSHORE 
            WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. OFFSHORE WAVES OF 10 FEET AND A 
            STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH CURRENT.

0145 PM     HIGH SURF        FERNANDINA BEACH        30.66N 81.45W 
09/05/2008                   NASSAU             FL   COUNTY OFFICIAL 

            NASSAU OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED 6 TO 8 FOOT BREAKERS ON 
            AMELIA ISLAND WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS SET UP.

0500 AM     RIP CURRENTS     JACKSONVILLE BEACH      30.28N 81.39W 
09/06/2008                   DUVAL              FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AT LEAST 10 RIP CURRENT RESCUES WERE REPORTED AT 
            SATURDAY.

0500 PM     RIP CURRENTS     JACKSONVILLE BEACH      30.28N 81.39W 
09/06/2008                   DUVAL              FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AT LEAST 10 RIP CURRENT RESCUES WERE REPORTED ON SATURDAY
            BY LIFEGUARDS.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171157
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTUS82 KJAX 060248
HLSJAX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...HANNA MOVES AWAY FROM COASTAL WATERS...

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-060400-
/O.CAN.KJAX.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
WITH HANNA MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN REPLACED
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR MARINE
INTERESTS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATERS...OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE 
BEYOND 20NM OFFSHORE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS OF 7 TO 12 FEET
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE REGARDING TROPICAL STORM HANNA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON MARINE HAZARDS.

$$

WOLF

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170608
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 18W S OF 19N 
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED E OF 
24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 
15W-18W. 

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 13N 
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PREDOMINATELY ALONG 
THE ITCZ FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 32W-42W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W/63W S 
OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
PRODUCT FROM CIMMS DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST 
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR 
21N62W MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W S OF 
20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 
10N-16N BETWEEN 71W-78W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 21N 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.  

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N40W 10N62W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 
21W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 46W-56W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 
30N82W 26N86W 24N93W 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. 10-15 NLY WINDS ARE N 
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...WHICH DOMINATES THE W GULF 
W OF 90W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 90W.  
EXPECT... LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE 
FRONT STALLS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...EXPECT 
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER 
HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
17N84W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
NEAR 17N66W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 23N72W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 57W-60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N60W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 
31N63W...30N55W...AND AT 25N42W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N46W. EXPECT THE 
TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA

000
ACUS01 KWNS 170552
SWODY1
SPC AC 170549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAMS RESIDE ALONG 1) THE FAR SRN TIER OF THE U.S. AND
2) N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WHILE DIFFUSE/POSITIVELY-TILTED SRN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NRN
CA AT 12Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW.  A BROAD AND DIFFUSE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN STATES
REACHING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF
PERIOD.

...SERN GA/NRN AND CENTRAL FL...
SURFACE FRONT RESIDING ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER AT 12Z TODAY SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES S INTO NRN FL.  THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY SHOULD
INITIALLY BE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEN WITH
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.  SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST...WEAKLY
CAPPED AIR MASS AND BENEATH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -10
C AT 500 MB/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SRN GA SWD
ACROSS MUCH OF FL.  ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...STRONGER FLOW ABOVE 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 35 KT.  ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND THE NEED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...WRN CONUS...
NWD MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.  MEANWHILE...COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT
500 MB/ WITHIN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIABATIC
HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...BUT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER NW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRIMARILY
MID-LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW.  PWAT VALUES AOB
0.50 INCH WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED TCU/CBS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
GENERALLY DRY LIGHTNING/GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE NRN GREAT
BASIN INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW.

...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND SRN GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING PEAK HEATING.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING
FROM 6-6.5 C/KM SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION...DEEP ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2008

000
ACUS02 KWNS 170553
SWODY2
SPC AC 170552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
HIGHEST AMPLITUDE/STRONGEST WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER CANADA ON THU WITH
A BENIGN UPR FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE STATES.  SRN EXTENT OF AN ERN
CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH...MERELY A SHEAR AXIS/COLD TROUGH ALOFT...IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  INITIAL SURGE OF CP AIR THAT FOLLOWED IKE WILL MAKE IT
TO CNTRL FL BY THU AFTN.  THE FRONT AND SEA/LAKE-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL BE FOCI FOR DIURNALLY-BASED TSTMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA THU
AFTN/EVE.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER CNTRL/SRN FL AMIDST HIGHER PWAT
VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAIN PORTION OF A NEGATIVE-TILT UPR WAVE OVER NRN CA
TODAY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W ON THURSDAY WITHIN A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE AXIS.  SRN PARTS OF THE SAME TROUGH...ALBEIT
MUCH WEAKER...WILL TEND TO UNDERCUT THE WRN UPR RIDGE...LIKELY
ENHANCING HIGHER TERRAIN TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN GRT
BASIN AND THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES.  

A POLAR WAVE EJECTING FROM AN ALASKAN UPR LOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER 
YUKON AND DIG INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT. 
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CARRY THE LEE-TROUGH EWD INTO PARTS OF ND AND NW MN BY LATE
THU AFTN.  PALTRY MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND WEAK UPR
SUPPORT ARGUE AGAINST TSTMS ALONG MOST OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTN/EVE.  OVERNIGHT...A FEW ELEVATED NON-SVR TSTMS ARE PROBABLE IN
FROM ERN ND...NRN MN AND THE LKSUP AREA ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30-35 KT
SWLY LLJ TIED TO THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE.  HIGHER PROBABILITIES
WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO.

..RACY.. 09/17/2008

000
ACUS03 KWNS 170729
SWODY3
SPC AC 170727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE UPR AIR PATTERN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WELL N IN CANADA.  WITHIN THE
STATES...CONVECTIVE INTERESTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
POLAR DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NWRN CONUS.

...NWRN CONUS...
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT ON TIMING...DEPTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE CA/ORE LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY HEIGHT
FALLS/LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH PARTS OF NV/NW UT AND
INTO ID FRIDAY AFTN/EVE.  PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE...PRIMARILY VIA
MID-LVL MOISTENING...BUT IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP TRACKING FARTHER
S...LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE MORE ROBUST NWD FROM THE LWR
CO RVR VLY.  IF THAT OCCURS...ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND
REQUIRE ADDED SVR PROBABILITIES IN LATER FCSTS.

...LWR MS VLY...
INCREASING ESE LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL
IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY REGION FRIDAY. 
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT TSTMS AS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME STRONG TSTMS MAY BE PSBL ALONG THE
LA CST WHERE STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES /MINUS 8-10C AT H5/ BECOME
COINCIDENT WITH RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND 50-60 KTS OF
H3-H25 FLOW.  WILL AWAIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPR TROUGH AND NOT COMMIT TO SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..RACY.. 09/17/2008

000
ACUS11 KWNS 150624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150624 
VTZ000-NYZ000-150730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY INTO VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 150624Z - 150730Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS OF 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER ST. LAWRENCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES NY WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF
235/40 KT.  INSPECTION OF BUF...BGM...AND CXX VWPS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW NNW OF MSS.  RUC PROXIMITY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUITE SMALL OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
RATHER SUBTLE RADAR SIGNATURE AND RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS VIA IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  NONETHELESS...LOCAL BASE VELOCITY DATA INDICATE
45-55 KT ZONAL COMPONENT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LINE...WITH THESE VALUES CORROBORATED BY LOCAL VWP
DATA.

THE THREAT FOR A MORE CONTINUOUS WIND DAMAGE EVENT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY THE POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG...AMBIENT WIND
FIELDS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS THAT CAN TRANSFER THE HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE.

..MEAD.. 09/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...

44417506 45047472 45117319 45007230 44117216 43147321
42807404 43147490 43717513 

000
FNUS52 KJAX 170709
FWFJAX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LINGER OVER CENTRAL 
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MOIST 
AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH COASTAL SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT 
AND DURING THE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL 
BECOME NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH ALONG THE 
COAST AND WATERWAYS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. 


GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-172000-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           30           
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
TEMP                  84           64           84           
RH (%)                55           100          53           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     NE  3                     NE  6        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  5        NE  2        NE  7        
PRECIP DURATION       2            1            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   11 AM        
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 AM         CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.05         0.08         
LAL                   3            3            3            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 4500         200          4600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   N  8         NE  6        NE 13        
DISPERSION INDEX      19           2            54           
MAX LVORI                          10                        

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

GAZ153-154-165-166-172000-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           40           
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
TEMP                  83           67           83           
RH (%)                63           100          62           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     N  3                      NE  9 G15    
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  7        NE  4        NE 11 G15    
PRECIP DURATION       2            2            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.09         0.13         
LAL                   3            3            3            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 3900         200          4600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NE 13        NE  9        NE 20        
DISPERSION INDEX      28           2            56           
MAX LVORI                          9                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. 

$$

FLZ024-025-172000-
NASSAU-DUVAL-
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           40           
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
TEMP                  86           69           83           
RH (%)                58           98           61           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     N  2                      NE  9 G16    
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  8        NE  4        NE 12 G17    
PRECIP DURATION       2            2            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.12         0.18         
LAL                   3            3            3            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 4900         200          4700         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   N 13         NE  9        NE 21        
DISPERSION INDEX      29           2            51           
MAX LVORI                          8                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

$$

FLZ033-038-172000-
ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           40           50           
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
TEMP                  87           71           84           
RH (%)                57           92           63           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     SE  3                     NE 10 G17    
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  9        NE  6        NE 14 G18    
PRECIP DURATION       2            2            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.15         0.26         
LAL                   4            3            3            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6100         200          4400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   N 13         NE  8        NE 23        
DISPERSION INDEX      31           2            56           
MAX LVORI                          7                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

$$

FLZ032-037-172000-
CLAY-PUTNAM-
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           40           50           
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
TEMP                  88           69           84           
RH (%)                54           97           61           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     LGT/VAR                   NE  8 G15    
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  8        NE  4        NE 11 G16    
PRECIP DURATION       2            2            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          11 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.19         0.13         0.22         
LAL                   4            3            3            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6500         200          4400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   N 10         NE  5        NE 20        
DISPERSION INDEX      26           1            49           
MAX LVORI                          8                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-036-172000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           40           
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
TEMP                  87           67           85           
RH (%)                49           99           56           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     LGT/VAR                   NE  7        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  6        NE  2        NE  9        
PRECIP DURATION       2            1            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          11 AM        CONTINUING   8 AM         
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 AM         CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.09         0.14         
LAL                   4            3            3            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 5200         200          5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW  8        E  5         NE 16        
DISPERSION INDEX      24           1            41           
MAX LVORI                          8                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

FLZ040-172000-
MARION-
309 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           40           
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
TEMP                  89           69           86           
RH (%)                48           95           56           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     LGT/VAR                   NE  6        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     N  6         NE  3        NE  9        
PRECIP DURATION       5            2            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          11 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.24         0.15         0.20         
LAL                   4            3            3            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6500         200          5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   N  8         E  5         NE 16        
DISPERSION INDEX      20           1            44           
MAX LVORI                          7                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

ENYEDI

000
WWUS82 KJAX 100839
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FLZ020>022-102200-
/O.UPG.KJAX.FW.A.0069.080810T1800Z-080810T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.FW.W.0065.080810T1800Z-080810T2200Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-
439 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND
95 DEGREES WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO DROP TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT
WITH DURATIONS OF AROUND 4 HOURS. LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOWLING PARK TO LAKE CITY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ARS

000
FNUS72 KJAX 161557
SMFJAX

NORTHEAST FLORIDA DISPERSION FORECAST UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1157 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

FLZ024-025-033-038-161900-
DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
ST AUGUSTINE
1157 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     E  3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE  6
DISPERSION INDEX      2
MAX LVORI             9

$$

FLZ031-032-036-037-040-161900-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-MARION-PUTNAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...OCALA...
PALATKA
1157 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     N  2
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   E  5
DISPERSION INDEX      1
MAX LVORI             10

$$

FLZ020>023-030-035-161900-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CITY...LIVE OAK
1157 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     LGT/VAR
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   E  5
DISPERSION INDEX      1
MAX LVORI             10

$$

000
FZUS52 KJAX 170715
CWFJAX

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL
OUT TO 60 NM

AMZ400-171530-
SYNOPSIS FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM-
315 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER AND BECOME DIFFUSE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

$$

AMZ450-470-171530-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
315 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

.TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10
KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. WINDS AND
SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO
6 FEET. INLAND WATERS CHOPPY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.
INLAND WATERS CHOPPY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7
FEET. INLAND WATERS CHOPPY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. INLAND
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

AMZ452-454-171530-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
315 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

.TODAY...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INLAND
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO
5 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET. INLAND WATERS CHOPPY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

AMZ472-474-171530-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
315 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

.TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS AND SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO
6 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. SCATTERED
 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. SCATTERED
 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

ENYEDI

000
FZUS52 KJAX 170718
SRFJAX

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
318 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-180000-
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
318 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: LOW. RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ARE
LIKELY TO BE WEAK BUT MAY POSE A DANGER TO POOR SWIMMERS.
HOWEVER...THEY ARE STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT IN THE VICINITY
OF JETTIES...INLETS...AND PIERS. KNOW HOW TO SWIM AND HEED THE
ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

WIND: SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. 

SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 1 FOOT OR LESS. 

WATER TEMPERATURE: LOWER 80S. 

UV INDEX: 8...IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. 

$$

ENYEDI

000
FZUS72 KJAX 170830
MWSJAX

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

AMZ452-454-472-474-171000-
430 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS...

AT 430 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS... ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
11 NM EAST OF SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO 25 NM EAST OF BEVERLY
BEACH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES. YOUR BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IS TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR...BUT IF YOU ARE CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER...STAY BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 2967 8124 2974 8125 2976 8128 2988 8133
      2991 8131 2992 8129 2994 8129 3009 8133
      3020 8111 3021 8072 2948 8036 2948 8075
      2950 8077 2947 8112 2950 8113 2947 8113
      2947 8114

$$

ENYEDI

000
WHUS52 KJAX 301523
SMWJAX
AMZ454-474-301730-
/O.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0139.080830T1523Z-080830T1730Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1123 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER
  ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
  OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...
  INCLUDING C TOWER...V TOWER AND ANGELFISH KEY...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1123 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 40 NM NORTHEAST OF BEVERLY BEACH TO 33
  NM NORTHEAST OF ORMOND-BY-THE-SEA...MOVING WEST AT 14 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...
UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 2950 8077 2948 8112 2950 8113 2948 8115
      2988 8133 2990 8132 2992 8131 2992 8130
      2982 8127 2990 8129 2991 8128 2992 8119
      2989 8020 2965 8009 2948 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 098DEG 14KT 2982 8049 2957 8051

$$

SHULER

000
WHUS42 KJAX 090735
CFWJAX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

FLZ024-025-033-038-101000-
/O.EXT.KJAX.CF.S.0007.000000T0000Z-080910T1000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES...

LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL GENERATE
BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THESE EXPECTED VALUES ALONG WITH LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL...A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE AT
AREA BEACHES. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE- THREATENING TO ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF.

THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

000
FGUS52 KALR 161419
RVFJAX
RIVER FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA GA
FORECASTS INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL IN 6 HOUR INCREMENTS
1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008
:

:    FORECAST ISSUED BY GA- ALTAMAHA FORECASTER
:
:*************************************************************************
:BAXLEY - Altamaha River
:FLOOD STAGE  74.5     ACTION STAGE  72.5
:
:LATEST STAGE    62.47 FT AT 945 AM EDT ON 0916
.ER BAXG1    0916 E DC200809161018/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    8AM        2PM        8PM        2AM
.E1 :0916:              /      62.6/      62.6/      62.6
.E2 :0917:   /      62.6/      62.6/      62.6/      62.6
.E3 :0918:   /      62.5/      62.5/      62.5/      62.5
.E4 :0919:   /      62.5/      62.5/      62.5/      62.5
.E5 :0920:   /      62.5/      62.5/      62.5/      62.4
.E6 :0921:   /      62.4
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:*************************************************************************
:DOCTORTOWN - Altamaha River
:FLOOD STAGE  14.0     ACTION STAGE  12.0
:
:LATEST STAGE     1.70 FT AT 1000 AM EDT ON 0916
.ER DCTG1    0916 E DC200809161018/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    8AM        2PM        8PM        2AM
.E1 :0916:              /       1.6/       1.6/       1.6
.E2 :0917:   /       1.6/       1.6/       1.6/       1.6
.E3 :0918:   /       1.6/       1.6/       1.6/       1.6
.E4 :0919:   /       1.5/       1.5/       1.5/       1.4
.E5 :0920:   /       1.4/       1.4/       1.4/       1.4
.E6 :0921:   /       1.4
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.01/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:*************************************************************************
:WAYCROSS - Satilla River
:FLOOD STAGE  16.0     ACTION STAGE  14.0
:
:LATEST STAGE     4.52 FT AT 730 AM EDT ON 0916
.ER AYSG1    0916 E DC200809161018/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    8AM        2PM        8PM        2AM
.E1 :0916:              /       4.6/       4.6/       4.6
.E2 :0917:   /       4.6/       4.6/       4.6/       4.6
.E3 :0918:   /       4.7/       4.7/       4.7/       4.7
.E4 :0919:   /       4.7/       4.7/       4.7/       4.7
.E5 :0920:   /       4.7/       4.7/       4.7/       4.7
.E6 :0921:   /       4.7
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:***********************************************************************
:COMMENT
:
:
:
.AR ALR 0916 E Dt200809161018/YIDRZ   13: mrl
:
:...END OF MESSAGE...

$$

000
FGUS72 KJAX 180454
ESFJAX
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125-
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-190900-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1254 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEK...
...FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY COINCIDE
WITH PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA
EARLY ON MONDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT. FAY IS
THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY 1 BEFORE REACHING THE THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST LATE TUESDAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...
PROGRESSING NORTHWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES
THAT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 MAY RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES FROM FAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LESS THAN THREE INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF FAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE TRACK WEST COULD BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE LOCAL AREA...OR A
SHIFT EAST WOULD COULD BRING MUCH LESS RAINFALL.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION REGARDING
FAY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

ECZ