Preparing for the Next Pandemic
In the event of a pandemic, good surveillance, timely vaccine
development and production, and the ability to administer vaccine to large numbers of people
in a short amount of time will be very important.
The vaccination program during a pandemic will probably be different from current annual
flu shot programs in several respects
- More people will want and need to be vaccinated, so we will need
a larger supply of vaccine.
- The warning period before a pandemic is likely to be short.
Because the current vaccine manufacturing process takes a minimum of 6 months, it is
likely that there will not be enough vaccine at the beginning of a pandemic to vaccinate
everyone who wants it.
- It may be necessary for an individual to receive two doses of
vaccine to be fully protected against the virus.
In addition, communication and emergency response systems will have
to be in place to assist in managing a pandemic.
Since 1993, Federal, State and local health officials have been working on several
different preparedness efforts to reduce pandemic influenza-related deaths, sickness, and
social disruption. One of the efforts is to develop a national plan that will cover many
important aspects of responding to the next pandemic, including 1) enhancing surveillance
and early detection of a novel virus, and 2) improving the public health infrastructure so
pandemic-related programs can be effectively administered.
Flu Aid 2.0 :
(currently a beta test version) is designed to help State and local-level
public health officials plan, prepare, and practice for the next influenza
pandemic by modeling the impact a pandemic might have on their community.
The software is designed to provide a range of estimates of impact in
terms of deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits due to pandemic
influenza. The software does not provide any description of how the pandemic
will spread, i.e., when a specific community will be affected.
FluSurge: is a spreadsheet-based
model which provides hospital administrators and public health officials
estimates of the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the
next influenza pandemic. FluSurge estimates the number of hospitalizations
and deaths of an influenza pandemic and compares the number of persons
hospitalized, the number of persons requiring ICU care, and the number
of persons requiring ventilator support during a pandemic with existing
For more information about Flu Aid 2.0 and/or FluSurge, contact Martin
Meltzer, Ph.D., Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, NCID/OD/OS,
Mailstop C-12, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333, E-mail: email@example.com.
Links To Other Influenza Sites
1. Influenza (Flu), CDC
2. Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), FDA
The mission of CBER is to protect and enhance the public health through regulation of
biological products including blood, vaccines, therapeutics and related drugs and devices
according to statutory authority. The regulation of these products is founded on science and
law to ensure their purity, potency, safety, efficacy, and availability. CBER plays a
critical role in the manufacture and licensing of influenza vaccine.
3. National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases (NIAID),
The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the NIH, conducts
and supports research aimed at finding better ways to treat and prevent influenza
infections. This site includes NIAID fact sheets, brochures and news releases on influenza,
as well as links to influenza information maintained by other federal agencies.
4. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, U.S.
Department of Agriculture
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS),
Veterinary Services (VS) protects the health, quality, and marketability of our nation's
livestock and poultry resources. Within VS, the Emergency Programs staff (http://www.aphis.usda.gov/subjects/emergency_mgmt/index.shtml)
coordinates efforts to prepare for and respond to outbreaks of exotic animal diseases
including highly pathogenic avian influenza. Surveillance for influenza A viruses in avian
species in the U.S. are reported each year by the USDA, APHIS, VS, National Veterinary
Services Laboratories in the Proceedings of the U.S. Animal Health Association Annual
5. The USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS)
The ARS conducts research to develop and transfer solutions to agricultural problems of high
national priority and provides information access and dissemination. The ARS' Southeast
Poultry Research Laboratory (http://www.ars.usda.gov/News/docs.htm?docid=11244)
publishes information on avian influenza research and contacts for further information.
6. The Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response
(DoD-GEIS) was created in response to Presidential Decision Directive NSTC-7. In the
directive, former President Clinton recognized the threat posed by emerging infectious
diseases to the health of our global community and to our national security.
Responsibilities and actions to improve our Nation's ability to identify and respond to the
threat are assigned to many organizations and agencies, including the DoD.
7. The World Health Organization
The World Health Organization's Influenza Programme
(http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/en/) was created in
1946 as an international centre to collect and distribute information, coordinate laboratory
work on influenza and train laboratory workers. After 50 years, WHO's global surveillance of
influenza now maintains 110 National Influenza Centres in 83 countries and four WHO
Collaborating Centres for Virus Reference and Research in Atlanta, USA; London, UK;
Melbourne, Australia; and Tokyo, Japan.