Arthur was a minimal tropical storm
that brought locally heavy rains to coastal areas of the Carolinas. There was no significant
damage.
a. Synoptic History
Satellite imagery showed an increase in cloudiness and showers just east
of the Bahamas on 16 June. This activity may have been associated with a
tropical wave
that brought pressure falls to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on the previous day.
On the 17th, increased organization of the system at low levels was
observed in surface data, animation of satellite imagery and the
first aircraft reconnaissance reports. The "best track"
(Figure 1 (54K GIF)
and Table 1) indicates that the Atlantic's first
tropical depression
of the year formed from this system at 1800 UTC,
centered near the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. The
depression initially moved toward the north-northwest to north,
steered by the low-level flow around the western periphery of the
Atlantic subtropical ridge. The depression experienced
considerable shear at this time due to strong upper-level winds
associated with a cold low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Deep convection increased in a small area mainly to the north
of the center
on 18 June. The depression became Tropical Storm
Arthur at 0000 UTC on the 19th, based on analysis of reconnaissance
data. Maximum winds of 40 knots are based on a ship report
received on this day. The storm began to turn more toward the
northeast with time.
Arthur's center crossed over Cape Lookout, North Carolina near
0000 UTC 20 June. As the storm continued moving toward the
northeast, locally heavy rains occurred over portions of the
Carolinas in advance of the cyclone's
center. The center moved over the Pamlico Sound and the Cape Hatteras National Seashore
and exited into the Atlantic. Satellite imagery indicated that the
storm had a very well-defined low-level circulation with minimal
deep convection. It is likely that most of the tropical storm
force winds associated with Arthur remained offshore over the
Atlantic waters. The tropical storm weakened to a tropical
depression about 100 n mi northeast of Cape Hatteras.
Arthur began moving toward the east-northeast and accelerated
when westerly steering currents increased on the 20th. Deep
convection developed on 21 June, but the cloud pattern was not very
symmetrical in appearance, suggesting that the system was losing
tropical characteristics. Forward motion increased to greater than
35 knots and Arthur became an extratropical gale
at 1200 UTC 21 June while centered about 350 n mi north-northeast of Bermuda.
The remnant of Arthur was tracked for another 36 hours and was last
identified about midway between Newfoundland and the Azores, where
it was absorbed by a much larger extratropical low over the North Atlantic.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Figures 2 (25K GIF) and
3 (28K GIF)
show best track curves of minimum central pressure and maximum one-minute
surface wind speed, respectively, as a function of time. The observations
on which the curves are based are also plotted and consist of
Dvorak-technique estimates
using satellite imagery, aircraft reconnaissance data on 17, 18 and
19 June, surface reports and a few synoptic fixes
from TPC surface maps.
Intensity estimates derived from satellite data never exceeded
35 knots. The maximum wind reported by U.S. Air Force reserve
aircraft was 45 knots at a flight-level of 1500 feet at 0023 UTC 19
June. The ship Atlantic Huron reported a sustained wind of
42 knots at 1500 UTC 19 June while located 35 n mi southeast of the
cyclone's center. The C-MAN station at Frying Pan Shoals reported
sustained winds of 34 knots and a gust to 40 knots at 1700 UTC on
19 June. This automated reporting station is located about 30 n mi
southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, and the winds were measured
at an elevation of approximately 80 feet. A sustained wind of 33
knots and a gust to 39 knots were reported from Ocracoke Island
on the North Carolina Outer Banks at 0512 UTC 20 June.
The largest rainfall total, 5 inches, occurred in Georgetown
County, South Carolina. Several areas over the coastal plains of
South Carolina and North Carolina reported between 2 and 4 inches.
Surf as high as 5 to 7 feet occurred off the North Carolina
coast in the vicinity of Cape Lookout. No significant beach
erosion was reported.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
No reports of casualties or significant damage associated with
Arthur have been received at the NHC.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Arthur was a tropical storm for only a day and a half, so no
meaningful quantitative forecast evaluations are possible. The
first three advisories indicated that the
tropical cyclone
would move into the Carolinas and dissipate, but thereafter the official
track forecasts as well as the model guidance were fairly
consistent in recurving Arthur around the western periphery of the
Atlantic subtropical ridge.
The intensity forecasts were, in general, good. The tropical
cyclone was never forecast to be more than a minimal tropical storm.
Table 2 lists the watches and warnings issued for Tropical
Storm Arthur.
Table 2. Watch and warning summary, Tropical Storm Arthur, 17-21 June, 1996
Date/Time
(UTC) | Action | Location |
| 18/1500 | tropical storm warning |
Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Lookout, NC |
| tropical storm watch |
north of Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA border including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds |
| 19/0900 |
tropical storm warning extended northward |
north of Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA border including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds |
| tropical storm warning discontinued |
south of Cape Romain, SC |
| tropical storm watch |
NC/VA border to Cape Charles, VA including Virginia Beach |
| 19/1500 | tropical storm warning discontinued |
south of Little River Inlet, SC |
| 19/2100 |
tropical storm warning discontinued |
southwest of New River Inlet, NC |
| tropical storm watch discontinued |
NC/VA border northward |
| 20/0000 | tropical storm warning discontinued |
remainder of NC coast |
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