Average First Quarter Air Fares Fell 0.6 Percent from 2006; Top 100 Airports: Highest Fare in Cincinnati, Lowest Fare at Dallas Love
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BTS 35-07
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, July
25, 2007 - Average air fares in the first quarter of 2007 were down 0.6 percent
from the first quarter of 2006 and remained well below the pre-9/11 high (Table
1), the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics
(BTS) reported today.
BTS, a part of the Research and
Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the
average domestic itinerary fare in the first quarter of 2007 was $380, down 0.6
percent from the average fare in the first quarter of 2006 and down 10.1
percent from the historic first-quarter high of $422 in 2000 (Table 1).
Average
fares are based on domestic itinerary fares, round-trip or one-way for which no
return is purchased. Averages include frequent-flyer fares.
Average air fares in the first quarter rose 0.1 percent from the fourth-quarter
2006 average of $379 but fell 6.5 percent from the post-2001 high of $406 in
the second quarter of 2006 (Table 2). Quarter-to-quarter changes may be
affected by seasonal factors.
Of the top 100 airports based on
passenger enplanements, the highest first-quarter
average fares were in Cincinnati,
followed by Anchorage, AK;
Honolulu; New York JFK; and San
Francisco. The
lowest fares in the top 100 airports were at Dallas Love Field, followed by Chicago
Midway Airport;
Houston William
P. Hobby Airport;
Islip, NY;
and Buffalo, NY
(Table 3). See http://www.bts.gov/xml/atpi/src/index.xml for average fares for the top 100 airports.
The largest year-to-year average fare increase for the
first quarter among the 100 largest airports, ranked by passengers, was 14.7
percent in Cincinnati, followed by Dallas Love; Salt Lake City; Atlanta; and
Hartford, CT. (Table 4).
The biggest year-to-year average fare decrease for the
first quarter was 12.6 percent for itineraries originating in Pittsburgh,
followed by Portland, ME;
Kona, HI; Charlotte,
NC; and Long Beach,
CA. (Table 4).
The largest average fare increase from
the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2007 was 30.9 percent in Lihue
(Kauai), HI. The other top fare index increases over
this period took place at Kahului (Maui), HI; Cincinnati; Spokane, WA;
and Anchorage, AK (Table 5).
The largest average fare
decrease from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2007 was 29.6
percent in Charlotte, NC.
The other top five fare index decreases over this period took place at Long Beach, CA; Philadelphia; Pittsburgh; and Denver (Table 5).
First-quarter
2007 average fares were up 7.7 percent from their recent first-quarter low in
2005 but down 10.1 percent from their all-time first-quarter high in 2001
(Table 6).
The Air Travel Price Index (ATPI)
A
separate measure of fares, the BTS Air Travel Price Index (ATPI) was virtually
unchanged from the first quarter of 2006 and remained near its highest first
quarter level since the first quarter of 2001 (Table 7) (1995 1st quarter
= 100).
ATPI
is a statistical index that documents quarterly changes in airline prices since
the first quarter of 1995. The index measures changes in airline ticket
prices used on identical routings and identical classes of service on a
quarter-by-quarter basis. The index can be used to compare airfares in
the most recent available quarter to any quarter since the base year of 1995.
While the ATPI measures changes in fares, average fares
measure the actual level of fares paid by passengers. Average fares take account of both the level
of fares and the number of passengers purchasing fares at different
levels. Average fares do not necessarily
account for the level of service, as ATPI does.
Average
fare calculations and the ATPI, while similar, measure air fares in two
different ways and may produce different results. ATPI measures the rise in airfares and
average fares show the increased use of lower fares. The varying results
reflect trends in the airline industry that have resulted in more passengers
using lower air fares even though fare levels continue to rise.
First,
low-cost carriers, which generally offer lower fares, now carry more than 27
percent of all domestic enplaned passengers, up from about 14 percent in
1995. Second, the network carriers have
changed some of their fare rules, such as the "Saturday Night Stay Rule", which
has allowed more passengers to purchase lower fares. Third, use of the internet allows almost
instant price comparisons that give the customer the opportunity for
unprecedented low-fare shopping.
The
minimal change in the ATPI from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of
2007 reversed last year's trend when the first quarter 2006 index rose by 10.3
per cent from the first quarter of 2005, the largest first quarter year-to-year
gain in the index's history (Table 8).
While
remaining high, the ATPI rose only slightly to 114.6 from 114.0 in 4th quarter 2006. Quarter-to-quarter changes may be affected by seasonal factors
(Table 2).
The largest year-to-year
fare index increase for the first quarter among the 85 largest airline markets,
ranked by passengers, was 12.6 percent in Long Beach, CA followed by Providence, RI; Hartford, CT; Miami; and Cincinnati (Table 9).
The biggest year-to-year ATPI decrease for the first quarter
was 24.1 percent for trips originating in Kona,
HI. The top four fare decreases over this period took place at
Hawaiian airports. Columbus, OH
was the non-Hawaiian market with a top five fare decrease (Table 9).
The largest fare index increase from the first quarter of
1995 to the first quarter of 2007 was 72.7 percent in Lihui (Kauai),
HI. The other top ATPI increases over this period took place at
Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena, CA; Anchorage, AK;
Long Beach, CA;
and Kona, HI
(Table 10).
The only first-quarter 12-year fare index decreases were in
Manchester, NH;
Denver; Richmond,
VA and Buffalo/Niagara, NY. The smallest
increase was in Rochester, NY
(Table 10).
Additional information about average
fares, including fares for the top 100 airports based on passenger
enplanements, can be found on the BTS website at http://www.bts.gov/xml/atpi/src/index.xml. Additional information can also be found on
that page about the ATPI, including indexes for foreign-origin itineraries and the
top 85 air travel markets based on originating passengers. Second-quarter average fare data and the ATPI will
be released on Oct. 24.
The ATPI series are computed using a price index
methodology. Although the ATPI is computed using a tested index
methodology, it is considered a research series at this time.
Table 1: First Quarter Average Domestic Fares from
Year-to-Year
Fares based on
domestic itinerary fares, round-trip or one-way for which no return is
purchased.
Excel | CSV
1995 |
391.6 |
|
1996 |
362.8 |
-7.3 |
1997 |
382.6 |
5.5 |
1998 |
411.3 |
7.5 |
1999 |
411.8 |
0.1 |
2000 |
413.8 |
0.5 |
2001 |
422.4 |
2.1 |
2002 |
377.6 |
-10.6 |
2003 |
378.6 |
0.3 |
2004 |
377.2 |
-0.4 |
2005 |
352.7 |
-6.5 |
2006 |
382.0 |
8.3 |
2007 |
379.8 |
-0.6 |
Source:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 2: Average Domestic Airline Fares and Air Travel
Price Index Since Second Quarter 2005
Percent Change by
Quarter
Fares based on
domestic itinerary fares, round-trip or one-way for which no return is
purchased.
ATPI 1Q 1995=100
Excel | CSV
Second
Quarter 2005 |
362.2 |
2.7 |
108.2 |
4.1 |
Third
Quarter 2005 |
360.0 |
-0.6 |
109.2 |
0.9 |
Fourth
Quarter 2005 |
367.2 |
2.0 |
111.5 |
2.2 |
First
Quarter 2006 |
382.0 |
4.0 |
114.6 |
2.7 |
Second
Quarter 2006 |
406.4 |
6.4 |
120.6 |
5.3 |
Third
Quarter 2006 |
391.2 |
-4.3 |
117.4 |
-2.6 |
Fourth
Quarter 2006 |
379.5 |
-3.0 |
114.0 |
-2.9 |
First
Quarter 2007 |
379.8 |
0.1 |
114.6 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Source:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 3: Highest and Lowest Average Domestic Fares First
Quarter 2007
Top 100 Airports
Based on Passenger Enplanements
Fares based on
domestic itinerary fares, round-trip or one-way for which no return is
purchased.
Excel | CSV
|
Highest Average Fares |
|
1 |
Cincinnati OH |
531.5 |
2 |
Anchorage AK |
526.1 |
3 |
Honolulu HI |
489.4 |
4 |
New York NY: JFK |
479.5 |
5 |
San Francisco CA |
479.3 |
|
Average
Fare at All Airports |
379.8 |
|
Lowest Average Fares |
|
1 |
Dallas TX: Love Field |
238.1 |
2 |
Chicago IL: Midway |
271.2 |
3 |
Houston TX: Hobby |
282.6 |
4 |
Islip NY |
287.9 |
5 |
Buffalo NY |
292.8 |
Source:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 4: Top Five First Quarter Average Domestic Fare Increases and
Decreases, 2006-2007
Top 100 Airports by Passenger
Enplanements
Excel | CSV
|
Largest Increases |
|
|
|
1 |
Cincinnati OH |
463.5 |
531.5 |
14.7 |
2 |
Dallas TX: Love Field |
215.2 |
238.1 |
10.6 |
3 |
Salt Lake City UT |
366.0 |
403.7 |
10.3 |
4 |
Atlanta GA |
399.6 |
429.0 |
7.4 |
5 |
Hartford CT |
350.2 |
372.8 |
6.4 |
|
Average
Fare at All Airports |
382.0 |
379.8 |
-0.6 |
|
Largest Decreases |
|
|
|
1 |
Pittsburgh PA |
368.5 |
322.0 |
-12.6 |
2 |
Portland ME |
419.1 |
367.9 |
-12.2 |
3 |
Kona HI |
424.2 |
373.9 |
-11.9 |
4 |
Charlotte NC |
420.2 |
372.4 |
-11.4 |
5 |
Long Beach CA |
347.5 |
316.5 |
-8.9 |
Source:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 5: Top Five Average Domestic Fare Increases and Decreases, 2001-2007
Top 100 Airports by Passenger Enplanements
Excel | CSV
|
Largest Increases |
|
|
|
1 |
Lihue (Kauai) HI |
263.5 |
345.0 |
30.9 |
2 |
Kahului (Maui) HI |
363.9 |
400.7 |
10.1 |
3 |
Cincinnati OH |
483.6 |
531.5 |
9.9 |
4 |
Spokane WA |
315.8 |
341.8 |
8.2 |
5 |
Anchorage AK |
490.4 |
526.1 |
7.3 |
|
Average
Fare at All Airports |
422.4 |
379.8 |
-10.1 |
|
Largest Decreases |
|
|
|
1 |
Charlotte NC |
529.4 |
372.4 |
-29.6 |
2 |
Long Beach CA |
436.0 |
316.5 |
-27.4 |
3 |
Philadelphia PA |
494.4 |
361.0 |
-27.0 |
4 |
Pittsburgh PA |
437.5 |
322.0 |
-26.4 |
5 |
Denver CO |
495.1 |
365.6 |
-26.2 |
Source:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 6: Percent Changes to 2007 in Average Fares
From First Quarter Each Year Since 1995
U.S.-Origin Itineraries, First Quarter to First Quarter
Excel | CSV
-0.6 |
2006 |
1 |
7.7 |
2005 |
2 |
0.7 |
2004 |
3 |
0.3 |
2003 |
4 |
0.6 |
2002 |
5 |
-10.1 |
2001 |
6 |
-8.2 |
2000 |
7 |
-7.8 |
1999 |
8 |
-7.7 |
1998 |
9 |
-0.7 |
1997 |
10 |
4.7 |
1996 |
11 |
-3.0 |
1995 |
12 |
Source:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 7: Percent Changes to 2007 in the Air Travel Price
Index
From First Quarter Each Year Since 1995
U.S.-Origin Itineraries, First Quarter to First Quarter
Excel | CSV
0.0 |
2006 |
1 |
10.3 |
2005 |
2 |
5.5 |
2004 |
3 |
6.1 |
2003 |
4 |
5.9 |
2002 |
5 |
-2.0 |
2001 |
6 |
7.9 |
2000 |
7 |
12.1 |
1999 |
8 |
9.6 |
1998 |
9 |
12.3 |
1997 |
10 |
16.0 |
1996 |
11 |
14.6 |
1995 |
12 |
Source:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 8: Year-to-Year Changes in the Air Travel
Price Index (ATPI) Since 1995
U.S.-Origin
Itineraries First Quarter
to First Quarter
(First Quarter 1995 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1995 |
100.0 |
|
1996 |
98.7 |
-1.3 |
1997 |
102.0 |
3.3 |
1998 |
104.6 |
2.5 |
1999 |
102.2 |
-2.3 |
2000 |
106.1 |
3.8 |
2001 |
116.9 |
10.2 |
2002 |
108.2 |
-7.5 |
2003 |
108.0 |
-0.2 |
2004 |
108.6 |
0.6 |
2005 |
103.9 |
-4.3 |
2006 |
114.6 |
10.3 |
2007 |
114.6 |
0.0 |
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 9: Top Five First
Quarter Air Travel Price Index Increases and Decreases, 2006-2007
Top 85 Air Travel
Markets
Air Travel Price
Index Percent Change, First Quarter 2006 to First Quarter 2007
(First Quarter 1995
= 100)
Excel | CSV
|
Largest Increases |
|
|
|
1 |
Long Beach, CA |
133.2 |
149.9 |
12.6 |
2 |
Providence, RI |
100.0 |
108.3 |
8.3 |
3 |
Hartford, CT |
105.6 |
113.5 |
7.5 |
4 |
Miami, FL |
106.8 |
114.2 |
6.9 |
5 |
Cincinnati, OH |
130.2 |
138.7 |
6.5 |
|
ATPI for All
U.S. Origins |
114.6 |
114.6 |
0.0 |
|
Largest Decreases |
|
|
|
1 |
Kona, HI |
191.1 |
144.9 |
-24.1 |
2 |
Lihue (Kauai), HI |
223.1 |
172.7 |
-22.6 |
3 |
Kahului (Maui), HI |
131.6 |
107.1 |
-18.6 |
4 |
Honolulu, HI |
151.9 |
130.9 |
-13.8 |
5 |
Columbus, OH |
123.7 |
112.4 |
-9.2 |
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 10: Top Five Air
Travel Price Index Increases and Decreases (Smallest Increases), 1995-2007
Top 85 Air Travel
Markets
Air Travel Price
Index Percent Change, First Quarter 1995 to First Quarter 2007
(First Quarter 1995
= 100)
Excel | CSV
|
Largest Increases |
|
|
|
1 |
Lihue (Kauai), HI |
100.0 |
172.7 |
72.7 |
2 |
Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena, CA |
100.0 |
156.5 |
56.5 |
3 |
Anchorage, AK |
100.0 |
153.8 |
53.8 |
4 |
Long Beach, CA |
100.0 |
149.9 |
49.9 |
5 |
Kona, HI |
100.0 |
144.9 |
44.9 |
|
ATPI for All
U.S. Origins |
100.0 |
114.6 |
14.6 |
|
Largest Decreases/Smallest Increases |
|
|
|
1 |
Manchester, NH |
100.0 |
91.0 |
-9.0 |
2 |
Denver, CO |
100.0 |
96.5 |
-3.5 |
3 |
Richmond, VA |
100.0 |
98.9 |
-1.1 |
4 |
Buffalo/Niagara, NY |
100.0 |
99.0 |
-1.0 |
5 |
Rochester, NY |
100.0 |
101.5 |
1.5 |
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
For air fares for
the following airports, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/atpi/src/index.xml:
Alabama: Birmingham
Alaska: Anchorage
Arizona: Phoenix, Tucson
Arkansas: Little Rock
California: Burbank, Indio/Palm Springs, Long
Beach, Los Angeles
Intl, Oakland, Ontario/San Bernardino, Sacramento,
San Diego, San
Francisco, San Jose, Santa Ana (Orange
County)
Colorado: Colorado Springs,
Denver
Connecticut: Hartford
District of Columbia: Dulles, Reagan National
Florida: Ft. Lauderdale,
Ft. Myers,
Jacksonville, Miami,
Orlando, Pensacola, Sarasota/Bradenton, Tampa,
West Palm Beach
Georgia: Atlanta, Savannah
Hawaii: Honolulu,
Kahului (Maui), Kona, Lihue (Kauai)
Idaho: Boise
Illinois: Chicago
Midway, Chicago O'Hare
Indiana: Indianapolis
Iowa: Des Moines
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Louisville
Louisiana: New Orleans
Maine: Portland
Maryland: Baltimore
Massachusetts: Boston
Michigan: Detroit, Grand
Rapids
Minnesota: Minneapolis/St. Paul
Mississippi: Jackson/Vicksburg
Missouri: Kansas City, St.
Louis
Nebraska: Omaha
Nevada: Las Vegas, Reno
New Hampshire: Manchester
New Jersey: Newark
New Mexico: Albuquerque
New York: Albany, Buffalo,
Islip, New York
JFK, New York LaGuardia, Rochester,
Syracuse
North Carolina: Charlotte, Greensboro,
Raleigh/Durham
Ohio: Akron/Canton, Cincinnati,
Cleveland, Columbus,
Dayton
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City,
Tulsa
Oregon: Portland
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
Rhode Island: Providence
South Carolina: Charleston,
Greenville/Spartanburg
Tennessee: Knoxville, Memphis,
Nashville
Texas: Austin, Dallas Love, Dallas/Ft. Worth, El Paso, Houston
Bush, Houston Hobby, San Antonio
Utah: Salt Lake City
Virginia: Norfolk, Richmond
Washington: Seattle, Spokane
Wisconsin: Madison, Milwaukee
Puerto Rico: San Juan
For the ATPI for
the following markets, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/atpi/src/index.xml:
Alabama: Birmingham
Alaska: Anchorage
Arizona: Phoenix,
Tucson
Arkansas: Little
Rock
California: Burbank,
Greater Los Angeles, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Oakland, Ontario,
Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Ana
(Orange County)
Colorado: Colorado
Springs, Denver
Connecticut: Hartford
District
of Columbia: Washington,
DC (Dulles and Reagan National combined)
Florida: Ft.
Lauderdale, Ft.
Myers, Jacksonville,
Miami, Orlando, Tampa,
West Palm Beach
Georgia : Atlanta,
Savannah
Hawaii: Honolulu,
Kahului (Maui), Kona, Lihue (Kauai)
Idaho: Boise
Illinois: Chicago
(Midway and O'Hare combined)
Indiana: Indianapolis
Iowa: Des
Moines
Kentucky: Louisville
Louisiana: New
Orleans
Maryland: Baltimore
Massachusetts: Boston
Michigan: Detroit,
Grand Rapids
Minnesota: Minneapolis/St.
Paul
Missouri: Kansas
City, St. Louis
Nebraska: Omaha
Nevada: Las
Vegas, Reno
New Hampshire: Manchester
New
Jersey: New York/Newark
New
Mexico: Albuquerque
New
York: Albany,
Buffalo, Long
Island, New York/Newark, Rochester,
Syracuse
North
Carolina: Charlotte,
Greensboro/High Point, Raleigh/Durham
Ohio: Cincinnati,
Cleveland, Columbus,
Dayton
Oklahoma: Oklahoma
City, Tulsa
Oregon: Portland
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia,
Pittsburgh
Rhode
Island: Providence
South
Carolina: Charleston
Tennessee: Memphis,
Nashville
Texas: Austin,
Dallas/Ft. Worth, El Paso, Houston,
San Antonio
Utah: Salt
Lake City
Virginia: Norfolk,
Richmond
Washington: Seattle,
Spokane
Wisconsin: Milwaukee
Puerto
Rico: San Juan
Brief Explanation of
the ATPI
The ATPI is based on fares paid by
travelers and draws its data from the BTS Passenger Origin and Destination
Survey. Through this survey, BTS
collects information from the airlines on a 10-percent sample of airline
tickets. Each ticket sold is assigned an
identification number, and if this number ends in 0, the ticket is in the
sample.
The index measures the aggregate
change in the cost of itineraries originating in the United
States , whether the destinations are
domestic or international, but only for U.S. carriers (excluding charter air travel). The ATPI is based on the changes in
the price of individual itineraries, that is, round trips or one-way trips for
which no return trip is purchased, and the relative value of each itinerary,
for the set of matched itineraries.
The index uses the first quarter of
1995 as the reference point (expressed as the number 100) against which all
subsequent quarterly prices are measured. ATPI values below 100 represent overall "cost of flying" levels less
than those in the first quarter of 1995, while values above 100 represent cost
of flying levels that exceed those of the first quarter of 1995. ATPI levels can be used to compute percentage
changes in overall fare costs between any two quarters in an ATPI series.
Unlike many other price index
estimates, the ATPI is not based on a fixed "market basket" of air travel
services. Rather, all of the data from
the Passenger Origin and Destination (O&D) Survey are fed into the
estimation system each quarter, and this collection of itineraries varies from
one quarter to the next. New entry,
including routes and carriers, will not be included in the ATPI calculations
until it has been present in the O&D Survey for two consecutive quarters.
For price
comparison purposes, itineraries flown in each quarter are "matched up" with
identical or very similar itineraries flown in other quarters. A price index formula is then used to compute
aggregate index estimates such as those that appear in this release.
The fares
reported in the O&D Survey include taxes, so the ATPI values reflect
changes in tax rates as well as changes in fares received by the airlines. The
ATPI values in this release are not adjusted for seasonality, so some movements
in the series are due to seasonal variations in airfares.
The ATPI differs from the Bureau of
Labor Statistics' (BLS) airfare index, a component of the Consumer Price Index. The BLS index is based on fares
advertised through SABRE, a leading computerized airline ticket reservation
system, while the ATPI uses actual fares paid by travelers. Since a growing number of tickets are
purchased through the internet at discounted prices not listed with SABRE, the
ATPI does not show the same levels of increases as the BLS index.
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