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Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 1.9 Percent in March from February
Wednesday, May 14, 2008 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 1.9 percent in March from its February level, the largest monthly decline since August 2006, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 2). Since dropping to a recent low in September, the freight index has increased sharply in October and January, with each rise followed by a sharp drop two months later (Table 1). At 109.4 in March, the freight TSI was up 1.3 percent in the six months since its recent low of 108.0 in September but down 3.3 percent from its peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. The 0.5 percent increase in the freight index since December marked the second consecutive year the index increased in the first three months (Table 3). The freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight transportation industries. The index consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The March freight TSI level of 109.4 was 0.4 percent lower than the March 2007 level for the third consecutive March-to-March decline. The index is at its lowest March level since March 2003 (Table 4). Despite declines from recent March levels, the freight index has increased 6.1 percent in five years and 10.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. Release of the April index is scheduled for June 11. BTS has issued a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore. Transportation Services Index for PassengersThe TSI for passengers rose 1.8 percent in March from its February level, rising after two consecutive monthly declines (Table 6). The Passenger TSI March 2008 level of 116.2 was 1.8 percent higher than the March 2007 level, marking six consecutive annual increases since March 2003 (Table 7). The passenger index declined for the first three months of the year for the first time since 2003 (Table 3). However, the passenger index is up 23.9 percent in five years and 29.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger transportation industries. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail. Combined Freight and Passenger IndexThe combined freight and passenger TSI fell 1.0 percent in March from its February level, falling for the second consecutive month (Table 8). The combined TSI March 2008 level of 110.7 was 0.2 percent higher than the March 2007 level (Table 9). Despite the March decline, the combined index rose for the first three months of the year for the fifth consecutive year (Table 3). The combined index is up 10.4 percent in five years and 15.5 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index. 1st Quarter ChangesOn a quarterly basis, the Freight TSI rose 0.5 percent in the first quarter, rising for the second consecutive quarter. The quarterly increases coincide with the recovery from the recent low in September (Table 10). The Passenger TSI fell 0.8 percent in the first quarter, the second consecutive quarterly decline (Table 11). The Combined TSI increased 0.2 percent in the first quarter, also rising for the second consecutive quarter (Table 12). More on TSINOTE: TSI numbers for November (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The November Freight TSI is 110.2, unchanged from the April release. The November Passenger TSI is 116.4, revised from 115.0. The November Combined TSI is 111.4, revised from 111.0. The TSI for December, January, February and March are preliminary. TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted with the July release and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since September 2007
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| Month | Freight | Passenger | Combined | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| September | 108.0 | -0.9 | 117.4 | -0.1 | 109.9 | -0.7 |
| October | 109.8 | 1.7 | 118.2 | 0.7 | 111.5 | 1.4 |
| NovemberR | 110.2 | 0.4 | 116.4 | -1.5 | 111.4 | -0.1 |
| DecemberP | 108.8 | -1.3 | 117.1 | 0.6 | 110.5 | -0.8 |
| JanuaryP | 111.5 | 2.4 | 115.5 | -1.4 | 112.1 | 1.5 |
| FebruaryP | 111.5 | 0.0 | 114.1 | -1.2 | 111.8 | -0.3 |
| MarchP | 109.4 | -1.9 | 116.2 | 1.8 | 110.7 | -1.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
| Month | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 | (P) 2.4 |
| February | -0.9 | -1.4 | 0.0 | (P) 0.0 |
| March | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | (P) -1.9 |
| April | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | |
| May | 0.0 | 2.4 | -0.1 | |
| June | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 | |
| July | -0.5 | -0.9 | 0.1 | |
| August | 1.0 | -2.5 | 0.5 | |
| September | -1.3 | 0.9 | -0.9 | |
| October | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.7 | |
| November | 2.8 | -1.4 | (R) 0.4 | |
| December | -1.7 | 0.6 | (P) -1.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Annual Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to March
| Year | Freight | Passenger | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| 2000 | -4.8 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| 2001 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 0.9 |
| 2002 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 2003 | -1.5 | -4.0 | -2.2 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2005 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 2006 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| 2007 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| 2008P | 0.5 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Year | Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 102.8 | 4.0 |
| 2000 | 99.9 | -2.8 |
| 2001 | 99.4 | -0.5 |
| 2002 | 98.8 | -0.6 |
| 2003 | 103.1 | 4.3 |
| 2004 | 109.8 | 6.5 |
| 2005 | 112.0 | 2.0 |
| 2006 | 110.7 | -1.2 |
| 2007 | 109.8 | -0.8 |
| 2008P | 109.4 | -0.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008
(March to March)
| Since March. . . | Duration in years | Freight TSI Percent change to March 2008 | Passenger TSI Percent change to March 2008 | Combined TSI Percent change to March 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 1 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 2006 | 2 | -1.2 | 4.4 | 0.1 |
| 2005 | 3 | -2.3 | 7.2 | -0.1 |
| 2004 | 4 | -0.4 | 13.8 | 3.0 |
| 2003 | 5 | 6.1 | 23.9 | 10.4 |
| 2002 | 6 | 10.7 | 24.7 | 14.0 |
| 2001 | 7 | 10.0 | 15.7 | 11.0 |
| 2000 | 8 | 9.5 | 17.2 | 11.1 |
| 1999 | 9 | 6.4 | 24.0 | 10.9 |
| 1998 | 10 | 10.7 | 29.8 | 15.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to March 2008 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
| Month | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.1 | (P) -1.4 |
| February | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.0 | (P) -1.2 |
| March | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | (P) 1.8 |
| April | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |
| May | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | |
| June | 0.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 | |
| July | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | |
| August | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | |
| September | 1.4 | 0.9 | -0.1 | |
| October | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | |
| November | 0.7 | -0.2 | (R) -1.5 | |
| December | -0.9 | 1.1 | (P) 0.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Year | Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 93.7 | 4.7 |
| 2000 | 99.2 | 5.8 |
| 2001 | 100.4 | 1.3 |
| 2002 | 93.1 | -7.3 |
| 2003 | 93.7 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 102.1 | 8.9 |
| 2005 | 108.3 | 6.1 |
| 2006 | 111.3 | 2.7 |
| 2007 | 114.2 | 2.6 |
| 2008P | 116.2 | 1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
| Month | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.6 | 0.8 | -0.3 | (P) 1.5 |
| February | -0.7 | -1.2 | -0.5 | (P) -0.3 |
| March | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | (P) -1.0 |
| April | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | |
| May | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 | |
| June | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 | |
| July | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 | |
| August | 0.8 | -1.9 | 0.7 | |
| September | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.7 | |
| October | -0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | |
| November | 2.3 | -1.1 | (R) -0.1 | |
| December | -1.5 | 0.7 | (P) -0.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Year | TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 99.8 | 4.2 |
| 2000 | 99.7 | -0.2 |
| 2001 | 99.7 | 0.1 |
| 2002 | 97.1 | -2.7 |
| 2003 | 100.2 | 3.3 |
| 2004 | 107.5 | 7.2 |
| 2005 | 110.8 | 3.1 |
| 2006 | 110.5 | -0.2 |
| 2007 | 110.5 | 0.0 |
| 2008P | 110.7 | 0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight
Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change from
the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 2000 | -4.8 | 0.3 | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| 2001 | 1.6 | -0.7 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| 2002 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 2003 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.5 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| 2005 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.8 |
| 2006 | -0.5 | 1.8 | -2.5 | -0.9 |
| 2007 | 0.8 | -1.3 | -0.4 | (P) 0.8 |
| 2008 | (P) 0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11:
Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.3 | -1.9 |
| 2000 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 2.5 | -1.6 |
| 2001 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -21.0 | 15.2 |
| 2002 | 2.0 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 4.1 |
| 2003 | -4.0 | -0.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 2005 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | -2.1 |
| 2006 | 2.2 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 2007 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | (P) -0.2 |
| 2008 | (P) -0.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12:
Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2.0 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| 2000 | -2.1 | 0.5 | -0.2 | -1.2 |
| 2001 | 0.9 | -0.5 | -7.4 | 3.9 |
| 2002 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| 2003 | -2.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| 2005 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| 2006 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 2007 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 0.0 | (P) 0.5 |
| 2008 | (P) 0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.