CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts
CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies
for
Nov 2006 to
Jul 2007
(Updated: Sun Nov 5 11:28:17 EST 2006)
This page provides seasonal climate anomalies
from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS03). One forecast run is produced
each day for 9 target months. Initial conditions are from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 (R2) for
the atmosphere and from NCEP global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS)
for the ocean. The forecast displayed here is ensemble mean of 40
forecast members from the latest initial conditions. All anomalies are with
respect to 1982-2003 hindcast climatology, except for Nino SSTs
for which a bias correction with 1982-2003 average is first applied and then
observed climatlogy of 1971-2000 is used to define anomalies.
CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies
shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks.
The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies
are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is
issued.
NOTE: This page is updated daily to display the latest ensemble mean forecast. Forecasts from previous months can be viewed at CFS forecast display archive.
Nino SSTs
Sea surface height and equatorial temperature
Three-month-mean spatial anomalies
(1-6 month leads)
Variable |
Anomaly |
Anomaly with skill mask |
Normalized |
Normalized with skill mask |
Probability |
SST |
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Prec |
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T2m |
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z200 |
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z700 |
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US Prec |
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US T2m |
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US SM |
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u200 - u850 |
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Monthly-mean spatial anomalies
(0-5 month leads)
Variable |
Anomaly |
Anomaly with skill mask |
Normalized |
Normalized with skill mask |
SST |
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Prec |
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T2m |
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z200 |
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z700 |
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US Prec |
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US T2m |
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US SM |
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Forecast verification
One-month-lead seasonal mean
Forecast skills
Forecast correlation skill
CFS Forecast display archive
CFS realtime forecast from previous months
CFS model documentation and data access
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov
Send your comments
to: Wanqiu Wang
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