This page provides statistics of real time forecasts, and compares one-month-lead forecast and observation for three-month-mean fields. The forecasts are ensemble mean of 40 forecast members. All anomalies are with respect to 1982-2003 hindcast climatology, except for Nino SSTs in the 'Forecast anomalies' Table for which a bias correction with 1982-2003 average is first applied and then observed climatlogy of 1971-2000 is used to define anomalies.