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Post election analysis: The making of a governor


UPDATE 12:22 pm: Jenn Brown and Jeremy Bird, who head Battleground Texas, put out a lengthy memo to say they knew the process of rebuilding the Texas Democratic Party would take time. From the memo:

“While the losses this election were tough, we’re proud of what Team Wendy, Battleground Texas, and our partners across the state accomplished this year. Together, we showed that grassroots organizing can bring new voices into the democratic process. And together, we built the largest-ever grassroots program in Texas, uniting nearly 34,000 volunteers who reached out to voters on the phones and at the doors 7.5 million times. Our investments this year – in a cutting-edge digital program, a more effective data infrastructure, and a lasting grassroots organization – will lay the foundation for Democratic victories in the future.

INITIAL POST: Greg Abbott’s campaign gurus laid out voter diagnostics used to steer his landslide victory, including knowing what TV shows likely voters watched and using 450,000 Facebook likes to follow supporters.”

Political strategist David Carney acknowledged how micro-targeting techniques and data-mining made it pretty “scary” about how much they knew about voters.

The campaign’s target was to win 55 percent of the vote. They did it by targeting 2.5 million voters that were either sure bets – based on their GOP voting history – or were considered persuadable.

They knew the TV shows they’re likely voters watched in greatest numbers – ESPN college football, College Football Scoreboard and the Discovery Channel – and gathered information on their socio-economic status, education, income, wealth and political activism. They used computer cookies and 1,000 phone calls a night to ask voters who they might support and why.

Among the key things it told them was that Abbott’s ad featuring his Hispanic mother-in-law worked extremely well, especially among Latino voters. The campaign also devoted $3 million in Spanish-language advertising.

They also could track rival Democrat Wendy Davis’ ad-buys and how they were affecting likely voters.

Davis’ controversial ad – featuring an empty wheelchair that interposed Abbott’s own $10 million accident settlement against his record of fighting lawsuits – did not do well, Abbott operatives said.

Next to Abbott’s positive mother-in-law ad, Davis’ wheelchair spot, “was our second best advertisement,” said Chris Wilson, who tracked media for the Abbott campaign.

Wilson said the ad moved some voters towards Abbott and had a negative effect on her campaign.

The Abbott campaign staff also said their tracking of newly registered voters and turnout showed that the Davis campaign and Battleground Texas did not move the needle in terms of getting new Democrats to the polls.

“There’s no reality to what they said they were doing and what happened,” Carney said. “No empirical evidence that shows they did anything.”

He said that while voter registration did go up, it followed historical trends, did not spike after Democratic voter drives and did not keep pace with the state’s growing population.

Carney said Abbott’s lopsided victory – 59 percent to her 39 percent – does not mean Democrats could not field a candidate who could be competitive in four years.

He said the Democratic problem is that they are touting policies that don’t resonate with Texas voters.

“It’s not about Democrats. It’s about message,” Carney said. “A flawed candidate and a flawed message doesn’t work.”

Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis battle for governor

UPDATE 8:15 pm: It’s all over folks. AP has called the race and Greg Abbott is the next governor of Texas.

UPDATE 7:39 pm With almost 1.7 million early votes tallied, Abbott is leading Davis with 58 percent to her 41 percent.

INITIAL POST: Polls and expectations have Greg Abbott poised to become Texas’ next governor, replacing long-serving Rick Perry while continuing many of his policies.

Throughout the campaign, Abbott has brandished conservative credentials, promising low taxes and small government. He has played on President Obama’s deep unpopularity in Texas, painting Democrat Wendy Davis as a mere extension of the president.

Davis skyrocketed to national attention following a 13-hour filibuster last year on sweeping new abortion restrictions. Her campaign tapped support from tens of thousands of small donors and banked on strong support from women and Latinos.

Davis has urged voters to select new leadership that will represent ordinary Texans and fight for quality education, health care and opportunities. She has portrayed Abbott as an attorney general who represents business insiders.

Abbott also has promised to improve education in Texas and has emphasized investment in roads, border security and fighting federal government overreach.

Together, the candidates are expected to have spent $90 million seeking the office.

Obama holds phone conference for Wendy Davis and Texas Democrats

Wendy Davis was flanked by her father and her daughters during her 2012 victory speech in Fort Worth.

Wendy Davis was flanked by her father and her daughters during her 2012 victory speech in Fort Worth. (File 2012)

President Barack Obama participated in a tele-conference call this morning with thousands of Texas Democrats, joined by governor nominee Wendy Davis and lieutenant governor nominee Leticia Van de Putte.

The president urged participants to get out and vote, warning Democratic apathy would leave Republicans dominating statewide offices.

Republican Greg Abbott, whose campaign ads have tried to link the unpopular president directly to Davis, jumped on the connection.

“In the final hours of the election, President Obama is going all in for Sen. Davis, making a personal appeal to push their shared agenda of bigger government, more regulations, higher taxes and fewer jobs,” said Abbott spokesman Matt Hirsch.

The Abbott campaign has been running statewide TV ads for weeks that portray Obama as governor in the event Davis won the office. The two have not appeared together in public.

On the phone call, billed as a electronic town hall meeting, were also former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk and Houston Sen. Rodney Ellis.

The phone call was a motivator for Democrats to get out and vote, said Davis spokesman Zac Petkanas.

“The goal in an election is to get more of your supporters out to the polls than the other guy’s,” said Petkanas. “That’s what this call was desigend to do and we trust it will.”

With Chuck Norris in tow, Greg Abbott makes final gubernatorial pitch to Dallas voters

Greg Abbott campaigns with Chuck Norris, left, in Dallas at Sonny Bryan's on Inwood Road on the final day of the gubernatorial campaign. (David Woo)

Greg Abbott on Monday urged Republicans voters to avoid complacency and show up in the rain, if necessary, to help him become Texas’ next governor.

“We have two challenges over the next 24 hours. One challenge is going to be rain,” Abbott said. “Do not let that dampen your spirit. We need every last vote in this election.”

Abbott is favored to win Tuesday’s election for governor against Democrat Wendy Davis. He leads the state senator from Fort Worth in every poll. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and the last Democrat to be elected governor was Ann Richards in 1990.

Davis on Monday was campaigning in Austin, San Antonio and Houston.

Abbott, the attorney general of GOP nominee for governor, said the other challenge for Republicans was standing up to the Democrats’ vaunted voter turnout machine.

He said his rivals were trying to bring President Barack Obama’s agenda to Texas, and it was up to voters to stop them.

“Barack Obama’s campaign operatives have come here with one thing in mind, and that is to destroy the values and principles that have led Texas to be the best state in the United States of America,” Abbott said.

He added that he was proud of his campaign, and would be happy if he only won by one vote.

“We need to keep up and beat that machine,” he said. “We’ve gone 99 yards. We’re at the one-yard line. We have to cross the goal line together tomorrow.”

Abbott was joined at Sonny Bryan’s Smokehouse in Dallas by actor Chuck Norris, who said he was the best choice to lead Texas.

The attorney general joked that Norris was critical to his plan to secure Texas’ southern border.

“Today I am amending that vision with a two-word platform to insure we do a better job of securing that border,” Abbott said. “Those two words are Chuck Norris…No one crosses Chuck Norris.”

Abbott, who grew up in Duncanville, said he was having fun during the final stretch of the campaign.

“There’s no better way to finish the campaign than back where I grew up,” he said. “In quintessential Texas fashion, there’s no better way to end a campaign morning than in a barbecue restaurant.”

Hillary Rodham Clinton endorses Davis, Van de Putte

Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton campaigns for Maryland Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, during a rally Thursday at the University of Maryland. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday endorsed the Democratic women running for Texas’ top two offices, gubernatorial aspirant Wendy Davis and lieutenant governor candidate Leticia Van de Putte.

Clinton, who is weighing a bid for the Democrats’ presidential nomination in 2016, applauded Davis for running a “tough, strong campaign” against Republican Greg Abbott.

“That’s no surprise, because Wendy has shown us time and time again that she never backs down, whether she’s fighting for Texas school children or working to create an economy that works for all Texans,” Clinton is quoted as saying in a Davis campaign graphic.

Clinton said Van de Putte, who is locked in a tough race with fellow state Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, advocates for society’s most vulnerable.

“Leticia Van de Putte always demonstrates the courage to speak up for those who do not have a voice,” Clinton is quoted as saying in a Van de Putte campaign graphic. “She has bold ideas and initiatives that honor veterans, respect women, and value education. She leads with a sense of family and community.”

Wendy Davis gets big checks in final days

Texas gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis (Eric Gay/Associated Press)

In the last two days, Democrat Wendy Davis has pulled in more than $800,000 from large donors.

While Davis has large donors, the surge of big checks in the last week stands in contrast to a campaign that has raised close to $35 million mostly from tens of thousands of small contributions under $100.

The big contributors are all women and earlier contributors, including plaintiff’s lawyer and long-time Democratic supporter Amber Mostyn, who gave $367,000; Houston investor Lillie Robertson, $155,000; Dallas arts patron Marguerite Hoffman, $90,000, and medical consultant Laure Woods, $40,000.

Also a late giver is billionaire William Louis-Dreyfus, father of the actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus. He gave a check for $5,000.

Campaign spokesman Zac Petkanas said the money will go for anticipated expenses and advertising buys.

Republican Greg Abbott’s campaign, which in the course of the campaign has received dozens of checks in excess of $50,000, in the last week of the campaign has thus far reported only one large contribution – $40,000 from Dallas textile manufacturer Arun Agarwal.

In all, as my colleague Wayne Slater reports here , spending by the two contenders in the governor’s race could reach $90 million.

Greg Abbott flush with cash in last week of governor campaign

With 8 days left until the election, GOP governor candidate Greg Abbott has reported raising $4.2 million over the last four weeks.

In the latest disclosure report for Sept. 26-Oct. 25, Abbott showed late money is pouring in at a pace of $1 million a week.

He also indicated he’s been on a spending spree with $13 million left in the bank, down from $30 million just four weeks ago.

In all Abbott reports having raised $45 million in his governor’s campaign.

“The incredible support our campaign has received from tens of thousands of Texans is a direct reflection of the enthusiasm Greg Abbott has inspired among Texas voters for his vision to build a better, brighter future for our great state,” said campaign finance director Sarah Whitley.

Van de Putte: Davis detractors haven’t seen “magical Wendy”

Democratic lieutenant governor hopeful Leticia Van de Putte (AP Photo/The Daily Texan, Ethan Oblak)

Lieutenant governor aspirant Leticia Van de Putte pooh-poohs assertions that gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis has campaigned poorly, depressing the hopes of down-ballot Democrats such as herself.

“Absolutely not,” Van de Putte said in an interview aboard her campaign bus early Friday.

She said Davis, a fellow state senator, has inspired legions of Texas women to roll up their sleeves and canvass their communities.

“It’s going to benefit all of us,” she said, referring to Democrats running statewide.

The Washington Post reported that some state Democrats are complaining Davis “has become a drag” on candidates such as Van de Putte, whom it described as “a Hispanic lawmaker who is popular with the business community.”

Her GOP rival, state Sen. Dan Patrick, has said he, not Van de Putte, is the favorite of business groups. Patrick points to his anti-tax fervor, while Van de Putte says she would be better at satisfying employers’ worries about workforce readiness and infrastructure that’s stretched to the limit.

The campaign of Davis’ Republican opponent, Attorney General Greg Abbott, seized on the Post story. It issued a press release that highlights the unnamed Democrats said to be grousing about Davis as a damper on ticket-mates.
Van de Putte, though, wasn’t buying it.

“I have been in those ballrooms with 900 women, 1,000 people, where the magical Wendy Davis is at work,” she said. “She is motivating so many people. Wherever I go, there are Team Wendy T-shirts and people calling and block-walking.”

The activity wouldn’t be happening, Van de Putte said, “if not for Wendy motivating so many.”

Wendy Davis denies avoiding President Obama and says she would be “thrilled” if he came to Texas

While some Democrats have avoided President Obama, Democrat Wendy Davis says “I’ve never backed away” from him and would be “thrilled” if he came to Texas to campaign for her gubernatorial bid. Asked today whether she has asked Obama to campaign with her, Davis said no. “I imagine he’s busy doing other things,” she told reporters.

Wendy Davis tells campaign volunteers in Austin early-voting figures look good for Democrats (Wayne Slater)

The issue flared earlier in the campaign when Obama, who is not popular in Texas, came to the state but Davis was campaigning elsewhere. They did meet once in Austin during a 50th anniversary symposium on the Civil Rights Act. But the meeting was private and the media weren’t invited to photograph them together.

In several states, Republican candidates in senate and governor races have sought to link their Democratic opponents to Obama and his policies. Democrats have pushed back, in some cases declining to say even whether they’d voted for him for president. Republican Greg Abbott is running an ad with their pictures side-by-side. Asked about the president, Davis denied she’s tried to avoid him.

“I would be thrilled if he or the Clintons would want to come and help,” she told reporters Wednesday at a campaign event in Austin. “I was pleased that Michelle Obama was willing to record a radio ad for me. And I’m very honored to have their support and the support of so many prominent Democrats across this country.”

Abbott was pressing the message Wednesday that Davis was an Obama acolyte. At a campaign rally in San Antonio with actor Chuck Norris, Abbott told GOP supporters a vote for Davis a vote for Obama policies.

At the Austin event, Davis criticized Abbott for refusing to say whether he would have opposed interracial marriage had he been attorney general years ago when some states banned it. Abbott has said his job as attorney general is to defend the law on the books, not pick and choose what he wanted to defended. Abbott is in court fighting a challenge to the state’s ban on gay marriage. Asked last week if he would have defended the interracial marriage ban in the same away when it was on the books, Abbott refused to answer, saying the question was hypothetical.

Davis: “I was just shocked that in the year 2014, Greg Abbott refused to answer the question of whether he would defend a ban on interracial marriage. We’ve moved decades beyond that. It was a simple question, with a simple answer. And the fact that he won’t answer it raises concerns.”

Hypothetically, Abbott passes on whether he would have fought for ban on interracial marriage

Attorney General Greg Abbott, who’s made much of his role in defending state laws, was asked if he’d have fought for the old Texas law banning interracial marriages.

Abbott seemed to lean towards the answer, “yes.”

The interracial marriage laws already have been kicked to the curb, constitutionally speaking, the governor candidate pointed out to the San Antonio Express News.

“And all I can do is deal with the issues that are before me,” Abbott said. “The job of an attorney general is to represent and defend in court the laws of their client, which is the state Legislature, unless and until a court strikes it down.”

Abbott currently is defending the state’s $5.4 billion cuts in education funding, arguing the Legislature did not, faced with a budget shortfall, abandon its constitutional obligation to adequately fund education.

He is defending the state ban on same-sex marriages, saying the Legislature and later the voters said marriage is between one man and one woman.

Abbott said his job is not to impose his belief system in place of what the Legislature has decreed.

There is a history among attorney generals taking moral stands that might have proved unpopular.

John Cornyn as AG dropped an appeal of a death penalty case and sought a new punishment hearing. He determined he could not defend that particular death sentence in light of an expert witness who had testified that blacks are more inclined to violence. The defendant was black. And he was roundly criticized by some for conceding the case.

And Jim Mattox as attorney general refused to defend a state law that criminalized homosexual conduct. He also was derided for abandoning his role.

Then there’s Dan Morales, who refused to defend the University of Texas law school for using affirmative action in its admission policy.

Abbott’s answer raises the question of whether state attorney generals are obligated to defend stances they believe are morally wrong – such as banning interracial marriage. Or whether being an elected official could mean representing a moral leadership ahead of its time.