Bumgarner's place in postseason history after dominant October
When the Giants won the World Series in 2010 and 2012, they did so largely on the strength of their pitching staff, specifically a deep rotation. Their 2014 title was much different. Madison Bumgarner was their only reliable starter and he turned in a historically dominant month of October.
This postseason, Bumgarner pitched to a 1.03 ERA in 52 2/3 innings across six starts and one relief appearance. Most pitchers aim to throw 200 innings in the regular season. Bumgarner threw one-quarter of that in just one month. He had a 1.13 ERA in 47 2/3 innings in his six postseason starts. The team's other three starters (Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, Jake Peavy) had a 5.47 ERA in 48 1/3 innings combined.
Bumgarner's five-inning save in Game 7 on Wednesday night was the exclamation point on a stellar month of postseason pitching. For one thing, he became just the seventh pitcher to throw two shutouts in one postseason over the last century, and that seems like as good a place to start as any when talking about this October's place in history. Here's the list:
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | Tm | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sandy Koufax | 1965 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0.61 | 0 | 0 | LAD |
| 2 | Randy Johnson | 2001 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 | ARI |
| 3 | Orel Hershiser | 1988 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0.67 | 2 | 0 | LAD |
| 4 | Whitey Ford | 1960 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.72 | 0 | 0 | NYY |
| 5 | Lew Burdette | 1957 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.83 | 0 | 2 | MLN |
| 6 | Madison Bumgarner | 2014 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 | SFG |
| 7 | Josh Beckett | 2003 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0.56 | 0 | 0 | FLA |
Bumgarner shut out the Pirates in the NL wild-card game and the Royals in Game 5 of the World Series. Only four pitchers have thrown multiple shutouts in one postseason since the League Championship Series round was added in 1969. Burdette, Ford and Koufax threw their two shutouts when the postseason was nothing more than the World Series.
Way back in the day, and I mean way way back in the day, Christy Mathewson threw shutouts in Games 1, 3 and 5 for the New York Giants against the Philadelphia Athletics in the 1905 World Series. That is widely regarded as the best World Series performance in history. Bill Dinnenen of the Boston Americans also threw two shutouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1903 World Series. Baseball was a very different game back then though.
Since the LCS round was implemented in 1969, 48 pitchers have thrown at least 30 innings in a single postseason. Of those 48 pitchers, only 16 had a sub-2.00 ERA. When, talking about historical greatness, I believe both quantity and quality are important. Not just great innings, but lots of great innings. Lots and lots of great innings. Here are those 16 pitchers:
| Pitchers with 30+ innings and a sub-2.00 ERA in one postseason since 1969 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Year | W-L | ERA | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | WPA |
| Madison Bumgarner | '14 SFG | 4-1 | 1.03 | 6 | 52.2 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0.65 | 1.7 |
| Curt Schilling | '01 ARI | 4-0 | 1.12 | 6 | 48.1 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0.64 | 2.1 |
| Orel Hershiser | '88 LAD | 3-0 | 1.05 | 5 | 42.2 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 32 | 0.89 | 1.2 |
| Randy Johnson | '01 ARI | 5-1 | 1.52 | 5 | 41.1 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 47 | 0.80 | 1.6 |
| Cliff Lee | '09 PHI | 4-0 | 1.56 | 5 | 40.1 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 0.82 | 1.4 |
| John Smoltz | '96 ATL | 4-1 | 0.95 | 5 | 38 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 0.92 | 1.3 |
| Greg Maddux | '96 ATL | 3-2 | 1.70 | 5 | 37 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0.95 | 0.6 |
| CC Sabathia | '09 NYY | 3-1 | 1.98 | 5 | 36.1 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 1.02 | 1.0 |
| Orel Hershiser | '95 CLE | 4-1 | 1.53 | 5 | 35.1 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 0.82 | 1.4 |
| Cole Hamels | '08 PHI | 4-0 | 1.80 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 0.91 | 1.2 |
| Jon Lester | '13 BOS | 4-1 | 1.56 | 5 | 34.2 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0.95 | 0.8 |
| Burt Hooton | '81 LAD | 4-1 | 0.82 | 5 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 1.21 | 0.9 |
| Tom Seaver | '73 NYM | 1-2 | 1.99 | 4 | 31.2 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 1.07 | 0.1 |
| Orlando Hernandez | '99 NYY | 3-0 | 1.20 | 4 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 0.97 | 1.2 |
| Josh Beckett | '07 BOS | 4-0 | 1.20 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0.70 | 1.1 |
| Don Sutton | '74 LAD | 3-0 | 1.50 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0.70 | 1.1 |
Catfish Hunter just missed the list after posting a 2.01 ERA in 31 1/3 innings during the 1972 playoffs.
Among those 16 pitchers, Bumgarner ranks first in innings, third in ERA, second in WHIP and second in win probability added (WPA). Schilling is second in innings, fifth in ERA, first in WHIP and first in WPA. It's basically him and Bumgarner neck and neck for the best performance, partly because both made six starts while everyone else made five or fewer.
That's the point though. Bumgarner and Schilling made more starts and they still performed better than everyone else in terms of limiting runs and base-runners on a rate basis. They had more of an opportunity, sure, but they also capitalized on that opportunity. What good is that sixth start if a guy goes out and gets bombed? Those two stand out from the rest of the pack for me.
The difference between Schilling's performance and Bumgarner's performance is the overall state of baseball. Back in 2001, baseball was all about offense and a tons of runs were being scored. The average team scored 4.78 runs per game that year. This year the average team scored only 4.07 runs per game. Heck, the Angels led baseball by averaging 4.77 runs per game this season. The best offensive team in 2014 scored less than the average team in 2001.
Because of that, I think Schilling's performance stands as the best during the LCS era. He posted similar ERA, WHIP and WPA numbers to Bumgarner in a similar number of innings in a far more offensive era. Don't forget the ballparks either. Bumgarner was pitching his home games in spacious AT&T Park. Schilling was stuck in hitter happy Chase Field.
This isn't a knock on Bumgarner at all. I think his 2014 postseason was the second best in history since the LCS round was implemented in 1969. Schilling's postseason in 2001 was just a bit better. They were both truly outstanding and they towered above the competition. Their performances are both historic. What Bumgarner did these last few weeks is something we'll be talking about for years and decades to come, just like we all still talk about Schilling's postseason dominance.
