Nathaniel Plant, Ph.D.
Biography
I am the Center Director for the Saint Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, where I support scientists working on coastal research topics such as coastal hazards due to storms and sea-level rise; sediment availability and distribution; and response of coastal communities, wetlands, corals, and microbial ecosystems to extreme events and persistent changes to our coastal environment. I have served in this capacity since October 2018, initially in an acting capacity and permanently since April 2019.
Prior to becoming Center Director, my role with the USGS was as an oceanographer. Past research projects included scientific applications to coastal management, such as assessing storm-induced and long-term coastal erosion or identification of future nesting habitat for endangered shore bird species. Throughout my research career, I have lived in a range of coastal communities in California, Mississippi, and Florida, as well as the Netherlands, and the Washington, DC area. I received my Ph.D. in Marine Geology from Oregon State University’s Oceanography program in 1998.
Science and Products
Remote Sensing Coastal Change
We use remote-sensing technologies—such as aerial photography, satellite imagery, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and lidar (laser-based surveying)—to measure coastal change along U.S. shorelines.
iCoast - Did the Coast Change?
iCoast has now been retired. When active, it allowed citizen scientists to identify changes to the coast by comparing aerial photographs taken before and after storms.
Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
The Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project assesses present and future coastal vulnerability to provide actionable information for management of our Nation’s coasts. Through multidisciplinary research and collaborative partnerships with decision-makers, physical, biological, and social factors that describe landscape and habitat changes are incorporated in a...
Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment for the Northeastern United States
As part of the USGS Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project, this assessment seeks to predict the response to sea-level rise across the coastal landscape under a range of future scenarios by evaluating the likelihood of inundation as well as dynamic coastal change. The research is being conducted in conjunction with resource managers and decision makers from federal and state...
Hurricane Sandy Response- Linking the Delmarva Peninsula's Geologic Framework to Coastal Vulnerability
The Delmarva Peninsula is a 220-kilometer-long headland, spit, and barrier island complex that was significantly affected by Hurricane Sandy. In order to better constrain controls on coastal vulnerability and evolution, the region’s sediment sources, transport pathways and sediment sinks must be identified. This project defines the geologic framework of the Delmarva coastal system through...
Beach-dependent Shorebirds
Policy-makers, individuals from government agencies, and natural resource managers are under increasing pressure to manage changing coastal areas to meet social, economic, and natural resource demands, particularly under a regime of sea-level rise. Scientific knowledge of coastal processes and habitat-use can support decision-makers as they balance these often-conflicting human and ecological...
Coastal Landscape- Structured Decision Making
An effort to better understand the effects that sea-level rise (SLR) is likely to have on the coastal zone has brought together a network of Department of Interior collaborators and academic partners through the DOI North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NALCC) and ...
Coastal Landscape- Change Predictions
Sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on the coastal landscape are presented here as: 1) level of landscape submergence (adjusted land elevation with respect to projected mean high water levels); and 2) coastal response type characterized as either static (for example, inundation) or dynamic (for example, landform or landscape change). Results are...
Hurricane Sandy Response - Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment
This project integrated a wetland assessment with existing coastal-change hazard assessments for the adjacent dunes and beaches of Assateague Island, Maryland, to create a more comprehensive coastal vulnerability assessment.
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Integration of Processes over Different Spatial and Temporal Scales
This research uses state-of-the-art observations, numerical models, and model-data assimilation techniques to better understand their cumulative effect on coastal change.
National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Development and application of an empirical dune growth model for evaluating barrier island recovery from storms
Coastal zone managers require models that predict barrier island change on decadal time scales to estimate coastal vulnerability, and plan habitat restoration and coastal protection projects. To meet these needs, methods must be available for predicting dune recovery as well as dune erosion. In the present study, an empirical dune growth model (...
Dalyander, Patricia (Soupy); Mickey, Rangley C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast
ContextCoastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely.ObjectivesTo examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape...
Lentz, Erika E.; Zeigler, Sara L.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.The roles of storminess and sea level rise in decadal barrier island evolution
Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal barrier island evolution under scenarios of increased sea levels and variability in storminess (intensity and frequency). Model results indicate barrier island response regimes of...
Passeri, Davina L.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Long, Joseph W.; Mickey, Rangley C.; Jenkins, Robert L.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Godsey, Elizabeth; Gonzalez, VictorApplication of decadal modeling approach to forecast barrier island evolution, Dauphin Island, Alabama
Forecasting barrier island evolution provides coastal managers and stakeholders the ability to assess the resiliency of these important coastal environments that are home to both established communities and existing natural habitats. This study uses an established coupled model framework to assess how Dauphin Island, Alabama, responds to various...
Mickey, Rangley C.; Elizabeth Godsey; Dalyander, P. Soupy ; Victor Gonzalez; Jenkins, Robert L.; Long, Joseph W.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.Development of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution
Predicting the decadal evolution of barrier island systems is important for coastal managers who propose restoration or preservation alternatives aimed at increasing the resiliency of the island and its associated habitats or communities. Existing numerical models for simulating morphologic changes typically include either long-term (for example,...
Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy ; Jenkins, Robert L.; Thompson, David M.; Passeri, Davina L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term...
Jennifer Montaño; Giovanni Coco; Jose Antolinez; Tomas Beuzen; Karin Bryan; Laura Cagigal; Bruno Castelle; Mark Davidson; Goldstein, Evan B.; Raimundo Ibaceta; Déborah Idier; Bonnie C. Ludka; Sina Masoud-Ansari; Fernando Mendez; A. Brad Murray; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Katherine Ratlif; Arthur Robinet; Ana Rueda; Nadia Sénéchal; Joshua Simmons; Kristen Splinter; Scott Stephens; Ian Townend; Vitousek, Sean; Kilian VosA pragmatic approach for comparing species distribution models to increasing confidence in managing piping plover habitat
Conservation management often requires decision-making without perfect knowledge of the at-risk species or ecosystem. Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful but largely under-utilized due to model uncertainty. We provide a case study that utilizes an ensemble modeling approach of two independently derived SDMs to explicitly address common...
Maslo, Brooke; Zeigler, Sara; Drake, Evan; Pover, Todd; Plant, Nathaniel G.Predicting surf zone injuries along the Delaware coast using a Bayesian network
Personnel at Beebe Healthcare in Lewes, Delaware, collected surf zone injury (SZI) data for eight summer seasons from 2010 through 2017. Data include, but are not limited to, time of injury, gender, age, and activity. More than 2000 SZI events, including 196 spinal injuries and 6 fatalities, occurred at the five most populated beaches along the 25...
Doelp, Matthew; Puleo, Jack A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.Using a Bayesian network to understand the importance of coastal storms and undeveloped landscapes for the creation and maintenance of early successional habitat
Coastal storms have consequences for human lives and infrastructure but also create important early successional habitats for myriad species. For example, storm-induced overwash creates nesting habitat for shorebirds like piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). We examined how piping plover habitat extent and location changed on barrier islands in...
Zeigler, Sara L.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Sturdivant, Emily J.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Fraser, James D.; Hecht, A.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. RobertCombining numerical and statistical models to predict storm-induced dune erosion
Dune erosion is an important aspect to consider when assessing coastal flood risk, as dune elevation loss makes the protected areas more susceptible to flooding. However, most advanced dune erosion numerical models are computationally expensive, which hinders their application in early-warning systems. Based on a combination of probabilistic and...
Malagon-Santos, Victor; Wahl, Thomas; Long, Joseph W; Passeri, Davina L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.Forecasts of coastal change hazards
Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including...
Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Joseph Long; Plant, Nathaniel G.iCoast – Did the Coast Change?: Storm-impact model verification using citizen scientists
The USGS provides model predictions of severe storm impacts prior to landfall based on pre-storm morphology and predicted total water levels, including waves and surge. Presented in near real time on the USGS Coastal Change Hazard Portal, they provide coastal residents, scientists, and emergency managers valuable coastal response information....
Morgan, Karen L M; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Richard J. SnellChallenges of predicting coastal impacts of sea level rise (SLR) in northeastern United States
The impacts of future sea level rise (SLR) are challenging to predict because they are not the same everywhere. Coastal environments and the amount of development vary—from marshes, beaches, and rocky headlands to cities, towns and beach communities—and so does how the coast responds to SLR.
Congressman Charlie Crist to visit the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
On May 6, 2019, Congressman Charlie Crist (13th district, FL) and Operations and Outreach Director Mr. Kendrick Lewis will visit the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC). Congressman Crist requested this visit because he is interested to learn more about the Center and to discuss needs/priorities that we may have.
Coastal and Marine Geology is Airborne!
A number of Coastal and Marine Geology researchers have completed the Unmanned Aerial Systems certification classes held by the Department of Interior Office of Aviation Safety and the USGS Unmanned Aerial Systems program, creating a fast and inexpensive way to make accurate three-dimensional maps and take aerial photos.