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Future Plans and a Review of 2019
Listen to CBO's podcast episode on transparency
Transparency is a top priority for CBO, and the agency continues to bolster its efforts to be transparent. CBO is committed to maintaining equitable access to the information and analysis that it provides, ensuring that its work is widely available to the Congress and the public. Those efforts help CBO continue its long-standing dedication to providing clear, objective, insightful, and timely information.
CBO’s transparency efforts have three principal goals:
- To promote a thorough understanding of CBO’s analyses through accessible, clear, and detailed communication;
- To help people gauge how estimates might change if policies or circumstances differed; and
- To enhance the credibility of the agency’s analyses and processes by showing the underlying data, professional research, and feedback from experts.
To achieve those goals, CBO undertakes the following activities:
Testifying and Publishing Answers to Questions
CBO testifies at Congressional hearings and publishes answers to Members’ subsequent questions on its website.
- Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2021 --
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2021 --
- Testimony on CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 --
- Testimony on the Key Design Components and Considerations for Establishing a Single-Payer Health Care System --
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2020
- Testimony on Discretionary Appropriations Under the Budget Control Act --
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2020 --
- Testimony on CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 --
Explaining Analytical Methods
CBO publishes documents explaining its analyses, including its general approach and particular instances. In addition, most cost estimates include a section describing the basis of the estimate. To enable researchers to replicate its results, the agency posts segments of the computer code for some analyses.
General Information
- Federal Net Interest Costs: A Primer (See page 12)
- Estimating the Cost of One-Sided Bets: How CBO Analyzes the Effects of Spending Triggers (See pages 1-6)
- Trends in the Internal Revenue Service’s Funding and Enforcement (See Appendix B)
- How CBO Analyzes Approaches to Improve Health Through Disease Prevention
- The Employment of Foreign-Born People (See Appendix)
- Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Budgetary Costs and Policy Options (See Appendix B)
- Recent Changes in CBO’s Projections of Corporate Income Tax Revenues
- CBO’s Waterfall Model for Projecting Discretionary Spending, January 2020
- Projected Changes in the Distribution of Household Income, 2016 to 2021 (See Appendix A)
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update (See Appendix)
Technical Information
- How CBO Analyzes the Costs of Proposals for Single-Payer Health Care Systems That Are Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program: Working Paper 2020-08
- Estimating the Cost of One-Sided Bets: How CBO Analyzes the Effects of Spending Triggers (See pages 6-10)
- Vietnam Veterans’ Income in Retirement (See the Appendix, pages 27-31)
- Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output: Working Paper 2020-07
- The Distribution of Household Income, 2017 (See Appendix A, pages 33-37)
- CBO’s Projection of the Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output: Working Paper 2020-06
- Federal Reinsurance for Terrorism Risk and Its Effects on the Budget: Working Paper 2020-04
- CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03
- Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Working Paper 2020-02
- A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01
Technical Information Including Computer Code
- How CBO Adjusts for Underreporting of Means-Tested Transfers in Its Distributional Analyses
- How CBO Models Firms' Behavior in HISIM2 in Its Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020
- How Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Could Affect Employment and Family Income
- Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget
- The Role of the Federal Housing Administration in the Reverse-Mortgage Market
- HISIM2—The Health Insurance Simulation Model Used in Preparing CBO’s Spring 2019 Baseline Budget Projections
- How CBO Adjusts for Survey Underreporting of Transfer Income in Its Distributional Analyses: Working Paper 2018-07
- Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model: Working Paper 2018-03
Examples in Cost Estimates
Releasing Data
CBO provides many data files underlying the analysis for its major reports and other studies. The agency maintains a web page with links to many years of data, demonstrating the underpinnings of key projections.
Collections of Releases
Recent Publications with Data Files
- CBO's 2020 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
- The Distribution of Household Income, 2017
- The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030
- An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
- Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2021
- An Analysis of the President's 2021 Budget
- Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020
- Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2020 to 2030
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
Analyzing the Accuracy of CBO's Estimates
CBO regularly releases comparisons of the agency’s projections with actual outcomes.
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2020
- A Review of CBO’s Estimate of Spending From the Department of Defense’s Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2019
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Deficit and Debt Projections
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65: 2019 to 2029(See Chapter 3)
- A Review of CBO’s Estimate of the Effects of the Recovery Act on SNAP
- The Accuracy of CBO's Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2018
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Outlay Projections for Fiscal Year 2017
Comparing Current Estimates With Previous Ones
In several of its recurring publications, CBO explains the differences between this year’s and last year’s projections. In addition, cost estimates explain the extent to which provisions and estimates resemble or differ from earlier ones.
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under 65: 2020 to 2030
- The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030
- Comparison of CBO’s May 2020 Interim Projections of Gross Domestic Product and Its January 2020 Baseline Projections
- Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 (See pages 51-55, Appendix A)
- CBO’s Long-Term Social Security Projections: Changes Since 2018 and Comparisons With the Social Security Trustees’ Projections
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Deficit and Debt Projections
- An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (See pages 58-59)
- The Effects on Employment and Family Income of Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage (See pages 35-37)
Comparing CBO’s Estimates With Those of Other Organizations
CBO regularly compares its work with the budget projections of the Administration, with the economic projections of private forecasters and other government agencies, and sometimes with the policy analyses of various organizations. Comparisons are often discussed with Congressional staff when time does not allow for preparing a formal presentation.
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections
- Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021
- An Analysis of the President's 2021 Budget
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 (See page 55)
- CBO’s Long-Term Social Security Projections: Changes Since 2018 and Comparisons With the Social Security Trustees’ Projections
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
- Alternatives for Modernizing the Navy’s Sealift Force (See pages 8 - 12)
- An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2020 Shipbuilding Plan (See Appendix)
- An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (See pages 59-63)
- The Role of the Federal Housing Administration in the Reverse-Mortgage Market (See Appendix B)
Estimating the Effects of Policy Alternatives
To assist policymakers and analysts who may hold differing views about the most useful benchmark for considering possible changes to laws (and to make the consequences of alternative policies more transparent), CBO estimates the effects that some alternative assumptions about future policies would have on budgetary outcomes.
- Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2021 to 2030
- The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output
- Trends in the Internal Revenue Service’s Funding and Enforcement
- Costs of Creating a Space National Guard
- Reauthorizing Federal Highway Programs: Issues and Options
- Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Budgetary Costs and Policy Options
- Options for Fielding Ground-Launched Long-Range Missiles
- How Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Could Affect Employment and Family Income
- Alternatives for Modernizing the Navy’s Sealift Force (See pages 5 - 8)
- Issues and Options for a Tax on Vehicle Miles Traveled by Commercial Trucks
Characterizing Uncertainty Surrounding Estimates
CBO’s budget and economic estimates reflect the middle of a range of outcomes under a given set of policies. Discussion of uncertainty helps policymakers understand the factors that might cause estimates or outcomes to differ in the future.
- Federal Net Interest Costs: A Primer (See pages 14-17)
- How Changes in Revenues and Outlays Would Affect Debt Service, Deficits, and Debt
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under 65: 2020 to 2030
- The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output
- An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030
- Comparison of CBO’s May 2020 Interim Projections of Gross Domestic Product and Its January 2020 Baseline Projections
- How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2020 to 2030
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 (See pages 48-51)
- The Cost of Replacing Today’s Naval Aviation Fleet (See page 11)
Visualizing Data
CBO’s chart books, slide decks, and infographics about the budget and the economy help make its projections easier to understand.
- The Distribution of Household Income, 2017
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under 65: 2020 to 2030
- Discretionary Spending in 2019: An Infographic
- The Federal Budget in 2019: An Infographic
- Revenues in 2019: An Infographic
- Mandatory Spending in 2019: An Infographic
- The Economic Outlook for 2020 to 2030 in 24 Slides
- The Budget Outlook for 2020 to 2030 in 13 Slides
- How Dependents Affect Federal Income Taxes
- The Foreign-Born Population and Its Effects on the U.S. Economy and the Federal Budget—An Overview
Conducting Outreach
CBO’s staff communicates with people outside the agency every day to explain CBO’s findings and methods and get feedback that helps maintain and improve the quality of the agency’s work. CBO’s most important outreach is its direct communication with the Congress. The Director meets regularly with Members of Congress to explain the agency’s work, respond to questions, and obtain feedback. CBO also publishes blog posts and podcasts highlighting key issues.
Panels of Advisers
Multimedia
- How CBO Analyzes Approaches to Improve Health Through Disease Prevention
- The Employment of Foreign-Born People
- Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021
- CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021
- The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 23 Slides
- The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
- Navy Ship Construction: From the Budget Control Act to Building a New Fleet
- Transparency
- Budget 101
- CBO’s Cost Estimates
Presentations about CBO’s Processes
- An Overview of CBO’s Work on Climate Change
- Information Sources for Policymakers: Congressional Budget Office 101
- An Introduction to CBO: Its Role, Services, Products, and Communications
- Confidentiality and Data Access: A User’s Perspective
- CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding the Slowdown of Productivity Growth
- How CBO Analyzes Approaches to Improve Health Through Disease Prevention: A Presentation
- How CBO Adjusts for Underreporting of Means-Tested Transfers in Its Distributional Analyses
- Macroeconomic Analysis at CBO
- HISIM2—CBO’s New Health Insurance Simulation Model
- Reconciling Data on Transition Tax Payments: An Examination of Tax, Economic, and Financial Sources
Presentations about CBO’s Work in Progress
- The Role of Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans in the Distribution of Family Wealth
- CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021
- Allocating State and Local Taxes to U.S. Households
- Potential Spending on Veterans’ Health Care, 2018–2028
- How CBO Is Updating Its Health Insurance Simulation Model
- Operating Costs and Aging of Air Force Aircraft
- Exploring the Growth of Medicaid Managed Care
- Updating CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model (HISIM)
- Prices for and Spending on Specialty Drugs in Medicare Part D and Medicaid
- The 2018 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding
Presentations about CBO’s Findings
- CBO’s Economic Projections as of July 2020
- CBO's Current Revenue Forecast
- An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- Estimating the Federal Budgetary Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation
- An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- The Cost of Replacing Today’s Naval Aviation Fleets
- The 2020 Budget and Economic Outlook
- The 2020 Budget and Economic Outlook
- An Overview of The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
Other Outreach
- CBO’s Recent Publications and Work in Progress as of October 6, 2020
- CBO’s Estimates of Enrollment in Short-Term, Limited-Duration Insurance
- CBO's Work in Progress as of July 6, 2020
- Characteristics of People Receiving Regular Unemployment Benefits in July 2020
- The Budgetary Effects of Laws Enacted in Response to the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic, March and April 2020
- The Decline in CBO’s Projections of Gross Domestic Product for 2020 and 2021
- Budgetary Effects of the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic
- Economic Effects of Additional Unemployment Benefits of $600 per Week
- CBO’s Current Plan for Its Major Periodic Reports This Year
- Answers to Questions Related to Federal Funding for State and Local Governments