Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Mar 8 09:28:03 UTC 2013
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080927
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A DEEP CYCLONE WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE PACIFIC
WATERS OFF THE SRN CA COAST TO NRN NM WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WRN STATES. THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CORE WILL ADVANCE EWD/ENEWD FROM THE SWRN
STATES TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE
TRACK. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SERN CO...WITH A
N/S-ORIENTED DRYLINE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM FAR SWRN KS TO
SWRN TX. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT
ACCOMPANYING THE DEEP MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE SWRN
STATES TO PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING
THE DRYLINE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...ERN NM...FAR W TX...WRN OK PANHANDLE...SERN CO...
TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AMID DIURNALLY DEEPENING MIXED LAYERS
AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40 MPH. THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S -- PERHAPS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ON A LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION BASIS. THESE
FACTORS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF FAR W TX IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE TX/NM BORDER INTO MUCH OF THE TX TRANS-PECOS
REGION...NWD INTO THE FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR SERN CO...AND WWD
ACROSS ERN NM.
HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FURTHERMORE...MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MAY RESTRICT THE DEGREE
OF DIURNAL WARMING...WHICH WILL AID IN PREVENTING RH VALUES FROM
BECOMING EVEN LOWER. ACCORDINGLY...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY
BASIS...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF A CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME.
FURTHERMORE...THE OCCURRENCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NM AND THE TX
PANHANDLE SHOULD LOCALLY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THERE TO
SOME EXTENT.
TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE...THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
RH VALUES FROM BECOMING CRITICALLY LOW.
...CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
DEEP DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH GPS DATA INDICATING PW
VALUES OF AROUND 0.3-0.4 INCH. AS THIS DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
RESIDE OVER THE REGION...AND DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL MIXING...MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE
30S ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 MPH.
ACCORDINGLY...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
..COHEN.. 03/08/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...