National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Versions: 1 2
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AXUS75 KPSR 201651
DGTPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-221200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST THU SEP 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

SYNOPSIS...

MONSOON MOISTURE AND REGULAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
BENEFITED THE REGION THIS SUMMER...AFTER ENDURING VERY DRY
CONDITIONS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER YEAR (AS DEFINED SINCE
OCTOBER 1ST). THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS DEPICTED
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A GENERAL ONE CATEGORY
ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE DROUGHT STILL ENCOMPASSES ALMOST ALL OF
MARICOPA COUNTY AND THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...ALONG WITH
WESTERN PINAL AND EASTERN LA PAZ COUNTIES. CURRENTLY...ALL OF
ARIZONA IS STILL EXPERIENCING AT LEAST MODERATE DROUGHT
LEVELS...WITH ALMOST 32% OF THE STATE AT SEVERE OR EXTREME LEVELS.
THIS IS QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT FROM JUST ONE MONTH AGO WHEN
CLOSE TO 94% OF THE STATE WAS STILL IN SEVERE OR EXTREME DROUGHT.
THIS IS ALSO A MUCH BETTER SIGN THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN
46% OF THE STATE WAS EXPERIENCING SEVERE OR EXTREME DROUGHT LEVELS.

EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE MATURING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN
AND SHOULD PEAK DURING THE LATE AUTUMN AND EARLY WINTER SEASON. IN
SOME CASES...EL NINO CONDITIONS CAN LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AUTUMN AND WINTER
MONTHS...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE AS MANY OTHER FACTORS
IN THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN CAN DICTATE REGIONAL WEATHER
TRENDS...AND OVERWHELM ANY INFLUENCE OF EL NINO. IN THIS CASE...THE
UPCOMING EL NINO EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK...AND ALTHOUGH
SOME LONGER TERM CLIMATE MODELS HEDGE TOWARDS WETTER
CONDITIONS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS THIS AUTUMN
AND WINTER IS LOW.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

WITH SEVERAL MONTHS OF DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...IMPACTS HAVE
INCLUDED INCREASED WATER HAULING NECESSARY FOR FARMERS AND
RANCHERS...DISTRESSED VEGETATION AND LOSS OF FORAGE ACREAGE.
LIVESTOCK ON REGIONAL RANCHES HAVE SUFFERED THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT REGULAR RAINFALL
VEGETATION HAS RECOVERED AND TEMPORARY FARM PONDS REFILLED. DROUGHT
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESSENED THROUGH THE AUTUMN AND WINTER
MONTHS.



CLIMATE SUMMARY...

BOTH THE SEASONAL WATER YEAR (SINCE OCT 1ST) AND CALENDAR YEAR HAVE
BEEN DRIER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA...HOWEVER
MONSOON RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT WELCOME RAINS TO THE REGION. BELOW IS A
LISTING OF STATIONS AND PRECIPITATION RECORDED SINCE OCTOBER 1ST AND
JANUARY 1ST. ALSO INCLUDED ARE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS...PERCENT
OF NORMAL...AND SEASONAL HISTORICAL RANKINGS (PLEASE NOTE SOME
STATIONS HAVE A MORE LIMITED HISTORY WITH RANKING NUMBERS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT).

                   SINCE   SINCE    OCT 1     PERCENT     RANK
                   JAN 1   OCT 1   NORMAL    OF NORMAL    DRIEST
BOUSE AZ           2.30    3.78     5.60        68%       20TH
GILA BEND AZ       2.41    3.48     6.92        50%       MSG
MARICOPA AZ        4.37    7.41     7,71        96%       33RD
MIAMI AZ          10.35   15.62    17.35        90%       34TH
PHX SKY HARBR AZ   3.36    5.38     7.82        69%       34TH
PUNKIN CNTR AZ     8.91   16.05    17.45        92%       53RD
YUMA AZ            2.34    3.92     3.39       116%      101ST
BLYTHE CA          2.79    3.80     3.71       102%       24TH
TUCSON AZ          6.70    9.76    11.24        87%       47TH
FLAGSTAFF AZ      10.76   16.73    21.16        79%       37TH


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE APPROXIMATE PROBABILITY VALUES FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER AND THE THREE MONTH
PERIOD OF OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER ARE GIVEN BELOW VALID FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THESE
NUMBERS ARE DERIVED FROM OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NOAA CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER AND ARE ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THEIR WEBSITE LISTED
BELOW. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CORRESPONDS TO THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE DURING THE ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD...WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE...
BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL DURING BOTH THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND THE
THREE MONTH PERIOD OF OCT-NOV-DEC...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
PREFERENCE TOWARDS WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FOR BOTH THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND THE THREE MONTH PERIOD OF
OCT-NOV-DEC HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF FALLING IN THE ABOVE...BELOW...OR
NEAR AVERAGE CATEGORY.

                               TEMPERATURE         PRECIPITATION
                               PROBABILITY          PROBABILITY
                             ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW     ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW
                                  NORMAL               NORMAL
 OCTOBER 2012................  35 / 35 / 30         33 / 33 / 33
 OCT-NOV-DEC 2012............  35 / 33 / 32         33 / 33 / 33


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR LEVELS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY IN THE PAST MONTH...THANKS
TO REGULAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 6
MONTHS WILL HELP TO REPLENISH THE SALT AND VERDE SYSTEMS. THE DROP
IN RESERVOIR LEVELS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS IS STILL RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...AS COMPARED TO THE SUMMER/FALL OF 2010 WHEN THE SYSTEM
WAS FILLED TO OVER 90 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE
PERCENT FULL OF RESERVOIRS ON THE SALT AND VERDE RIVERS DURING THE
PAST TWO YEARS.

               09/19/12    09/19/11    09/19/10
               --------    --------    --------
ROOSEVELT         48          71          92
HORSE MESA        92          91          92
MORMON FLAT       97          95          96
STEWARD MTN       92          92          91
  TOTAL SALT      56          75          92

HORSESHOE          0           0           4
BARTLETT          50          48          92
  TOTAL VERDE     31          30          59

  TOTAL SYSTEM    53          69          88


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

WITH THE IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS...NO FURTHER UPDATES OR
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT. SHOULD
MORE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REEMERGE LATER THIS AUTUMN OR
WINTER...REGULAR DROUGHT STATEMENTS WILL RESUME.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NWS FORECAST OFFICE PHOENIX...WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
  AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM VARIOUS
FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE  ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - PHOENIX
PO BOX 52025
PHOENIX AZ 85072
602-275-0073
W-PSR.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
National Weather Service National Headquarters
