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Overview

GFS MOS is a suite of text-bulletin and graphical products developed and supported by MDL. Both product types include meteorolgical guidance for a suite of variables (Temperature, Dewpoint, Precipitation Amount, etc.). Station-based MOS provides guidance at meteorolgcial station locations (such as airports), while gridded MOS prodvides these products on a grid. Values are based on outputs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) numerical model, and then calibrated using the MOS technique, which was developed at MDL. The MOS equations relating model output to observations have been developed using over 1600 meteorological stations' observations.

Full suites of products are produced for short-range (6-72 hours in advance) and extended-range (24-192 hours in advance) forecasts for meteorological stations in the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and a limited number of islands in the Pacific Ocean. These products are produced four (short-range) or two (extended-range) times each day. Additionally, limited suites of GFS MOS products are produced for River Forecast Centers, marine meteorological stations, and select stations in Canada.

MOS Ensemble forecast guidance was previously produced using perturbed runs of the GEFS. GEFS MOS was discontinued in April 2019. Users of this product should use EKDMOS instead. 

For more detailed information on individual products, please see product pages.

GFS MOS Products

Note to users:

MOS products are no longer being developed as stand-alone products, and we are considering gradually phasing them out in the next couple of years (this does not include LAMP and GLMP products). We encourage MOS users to switch to the National Blend of Models. Information about the NBM can be found at https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_home, and NBM text bulletins can be accessed via webpage at https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-text/

Station-based MOS

Short-range GFS MOS Guidance (MAV)
4x daily GFS-based MOS, 6 - 72 hours in advance
Extended-range GFS MOS Guidance (MEX)
2x daily GFS-based MOS, 24 - 192 hours in advance
Coop Station MOS Guidance (MCG, MCX)
Maximum and minimum temperatures based on GFS MOS at Cooperative Stations (short and extended range)
River Basin MOS Guidance:
Maxiumum and minimum temperature for River Forecast Center (RFC) sites, up to 10 days in SHEF format
Marine Station MOS Guidance (MMG)
The Marine MOS product