Climate Forecast System (CFS)

An animated image of CFSR global atmospheric precipitable water for March 1–15, 1993, in 12-hourly intervals. (One-hourly CFSR data was down-sampled to every 12 hours to keep image size down.) This image was produced with the Grid Analysis and Display System and ImageMagick.

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) is a model representing the global interaction between Earth's oceans, land, and atmosphere. Produced by several dozen scientists under guidance from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this model offers hourly data with a horizontal resolution down to one-half of a degree (approximately 56 km) around Earth for many variables. CFS uses the latest scientific approaches for taking in, or assimilating, observations from data sources including surface observations, upper air balloon observations, aircraft observations, and satellite observations.

Historical model data are available in near–real time at NCEI. Real-time CFS model data are available on NCEP servers on the CFS 7-day rotating archive.

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Reanalysis and Reforecasting

The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was an effort to generate a uniform, continuous, and best-estimate record of the state of the ocean–atmosphere interaction for use in climate monitoring and diagnostics. The reanalysis method kept the model’s software constant and ran the model retrospectively from January 1979 through March 2011.

A global plot of CFSR near-surface winds on March 12, 1993, at 00 UTC. This image was produced by downloading a subset of CFSR data through the NOMADS THREDDS Data Server then visualizing with NASA’s Panoply visualization tool.

In addition to the reanalysis efforts, the CFS model was used to generate a reforecast of past weather forecasts. Reforecasts help scientists better understand the model's ability to produce accurate weather forecasts. The CFS reforecasts were initialized with CFSR data, which were the best estimate of initial conditions from the assimilation of observational data into the CFS model. Reforecast predictions start in mid-December of 1981. CFS reforecast data were used to generate calibration climatologies for use with the operational CFS version 2 (CFSv2) forecasts of seasonal weather. Together, the CFSR and the CFS reforecast data are known as the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR).

The operational CFSv2 analysis and forecasts continue the dataset from April 2011 to present.

Quick Links to Main Product Types

Product Types

CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR)

CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over the 32-year period of record from January 1979 to March 2011. It has been extended as an operational real-time product.

"The CFSR data was developed by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The data for this study are from NOAA's National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS), which is maintained at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)."

CFS Reforecasts

Description

A complete reforecast of CFS, over the 29-year period (1982–2011) has been created in order to provide stable calibration and skill estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction at NCEP. Coupled full 9-month forecasts from initial conditions every 5 days apart (for all four cycles on that day) have been made for each calendar year with the T126L64 GFS with half-hourly coupling to the ocean (MOM4 at 1/4° equatorial, 1/2° global). The total number of 9-month forecasts is 73x4 for each year. In addition to the 9-month runs, there is a full season run from every 00Z cycle over a 12-year period (1999–2011). There is also a short 45-day forecast from every 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z cycle over the same 12-year period (1999–2011).

CFSRR Calibration Climatologies*

*Note (2017-11-16): "CFS Reanalysis Calibration Climatologies" have not yet been ingested/archived at NCEI. Links to product data in the tables below are not serially complete.

CFSv2 Operational*

*With regard to "operational," NCEI/NOMADS historical model data are available in near–real time. Real-time CFS model data are available on NCEP servers on the CFS 7-day rotating archive.

CFSv2 Operational Analysis*

CFSv2 Operational Forecasts*

Data Usage Notes

02Dec2011

NCEI and NCEP have identified that the "High-Priority Reforecast" datasets are roughly 99% serially complete at this time and may contain isolated damaged files.

01Aug2011

Known CFSRR data issues are explained in the August 2011 CFSRR Known Issues Technical Document.

18Feb2010

Notice to users who downloaded CFSR time series data prior to 22:00 UTC February 18, 2010:

A format conversion issue was verified affecting the metadata in non-instantaneous CFSR time series files (28 of the 73 file types affected are listed below). The issue, triggered during the conversion process between GRIB1 to GRIB2 by NCEP (to facilitate transmission and storage), caused the non-instantaneous fields (00-01, 01-02, 02-03 hr statistical) to appear instantaneous (00-00, 01-01, 02-02 hr statistical) when decoded. At 22:00 UTC February 18, 2010, NCEI will begin bringing corrected versions of these files online. Users who have already downloaded these files are encouraged to re-download these files on/after Friday, February 19, otherwise be aware of these facts when using your existing copy. If you improvise the metadata, the data itself is valid. The issue affects the following time series file types (28):

dlwsfc dswsfc gflux lhtfl ocndt20c ocnheat ocnmld ocnsal15 ocnsal5 ocnslh ocnsst ocnt15 ocnu15 ocnu5 ocnv15 ocnv5 ocnvv55 prate runoff shtfl snohf tmax tmin ulwsfc ulwtoa uswsfc uswtoa wndstrs

Publication References

Please reference the following article when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data:

Please reference the following article when using the CFS Reforecast model or data:

Miscellaneous Documentation

CFSR Abstract

CFSR Hourly Timeseries

Links

NCEP CFSv2 Home Page

NCEP CFSR Home Page