What drives crude oil prices: Overview
EIA assesses the various factors that may influence crude oil prices — physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. We describe the seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explore possible linkages between each factor and crude oil prices. We include regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.
Several graphs include projections from EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook. Graphs are updated with new data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis according to the schedule below. Analytical text will be updated as needed.
All graphs| Graph update schedule by section | Update frequency | Last update |
|---|---|---|
| Supply: Non-OPEC | ||
| Production & WTI crude prices | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Projected supply, annual average | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Supply: OPEC | ||
| Changes in Saudi Production & WTI crude prices | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Spare production capacity & WTI crude prices | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Balance | ||
| OECD inventories & WTI futures spread | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Spot Prices | ||
| World crude oil prices | Monthly | 11/30/2020 |
| U.S. retail gasoline price, refiner acquisition cost of crude oil | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Crude price reaction to events | Quarterly | 09/30/2020 |
| Financial Markets | ||
| Average daily open interest in crude oil futures | Quarterly | 09/30/2020 |
| Futures positions by producers, merchants, processors, & end users | Monthly | 11/30/2020 |
| Futures positions by money managers | Monthly | 11/30/2020 |
| Correlations between daily prices changes of crude & other commodities | Quarterly | 09/30/2020 |
Commodity index assets under management & Dow Jones UBS price index |
Quarterly | 09/30/2020 |
| Composition of the Dow Jones UBS commodity index | Annual | 2019 |
| Correlations between daily returns on crude oil & financial investments | Quarterly | 09/30/2020 |
| Demand: Non-OECD | ||
| Consumption & GDP | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Projected non-OECD production, annual average | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| Demand: OECD | ||
| Crude oil consumption & WTI crude oil price | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
| World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices | Monthly | 12/08/2020 |
