Robert E. Fay, Mamadou Diallo, Westat

December 17, 2015    NCJ 249238

Developmental Estimates of Subnational Crime Rates Based on the National Crime Victimization Survey presents rates of violent and property crime victimization for the 50 states and select metropolitan statistical areas, generated using small-area estimation (SAE) methods. The report describes the statistical modeling approach used to produce state-level estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey data and auxiliary data sources. It compares SAE victimization rates for the 50 states from 1999 to 2013 to FBI crime rates from the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. It shows trends in criminal victimization rates for each state from 1999 to 2013. State-level estimates of intimate partner violence are also presented.

Excel files provide threeyear rolling average rates of violent and property crime, stranger violence, and intimate partner violence, as well as relative mean square errors for the 50 states, select large counties, and select large Core Based Statistical Areas, from 1999 to 2013. Victimization counts are also provided for the states for threeyear rolling periods from 2005 to 2013.

This is the first release in a new Research and Development Papers series.

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