U.S. jet fuel consumption during the week of Thanksgiving was about half of last year’s
Responses to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to affect transportation—and by extension, fuel demand—in the United States, particularly for aviation. For the week of Thanksgiving 2020, total U.S. consumption of major petroleum transportation fuels (motor gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel), for which the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses product supplied as a proxy, was down 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) (11%) relative to Thanksgiving week 2019. Jet fuel accounted for about half of this decline. Jet fuel’s relatively large role in the decline of overall U.S. transportation fuel consumption is particularly noteworthy given that it has the smallest share of the three major transportation fuels used in the United States. Jet fuel consumption averaged 1.8 million b/d in 2019 compared with 9.3 million b/d for gasoline and 4.0 million b/d for distillate.
A reduction in the overall number of flights has been the largest driver of the decline in domestic jet fuel consumption. Using raw flight-level data provided by Cirium on commercial passenger flights (which accounts for approximately three-quarters of overall jet fuel consumption), EIA estimates that about 108,000 flights left U.S. airports during Thanksgiving week 2020, just 63% of the 170,000 that departed during Thanksgiving week 2019. By calculating the distance flown and the fuel efficiency of the aircraft used during each of these flights, EIA estimates that these flights consumed 4.6 million barrels of jet fuel during Thanksgiving week 2020, 55% of the 8.3 million barrels consumed during Thanksgiving week 2019 (Figure 1).
The impact of COVID-19 and its mitigation efforts on U.S. jet fuel consumption has varied significantly by state (Figure 2). In New York, for instance, flight volume and jet fuel demand during Thanksgiving week 2020 were down 61% and 65%, respectively, relative to Thanksgiving week 2019, while three states—Wyoming, Utah, and Montana—recorded increased flights and fuel consumption during the same period. This state-level variation in flight volume and implied fuel consumption could reflect several factors, such as the following:
- Differences in state quarantine policies and travel restrictions
- The relative severity of COVID-19 in that state
- The share of the state’s population that was born or naturalized there (with higher shares associated with less travel during holidays)
- The share of each state’s international air travel (which has generally been more affected than domestic travel)
Figure 2 data
Reduced demand for air travel has also resulted in lower average ticket prices and lower fuel prices. According to data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, by May 2020, the average price of a U.S. ticket dropped to 70% of the January 2020 average price, and stood at 83% of the January price as of November 2020 (Figure 3). Lower crude oil prices and reduced air travel demand have also affected the price of jet fuel. The U.S. Gulf Coast price for kerosene-type jet fuel fell 66% from an average of $1.77 per gallon (gal) in January 2020 to $0.61/gal in April 2020—the lowest price since February 2002—and averaged $1.13/gal in November 2020. As a result, many refiners have shifted from jet fuel production to produce products that are more profitable. The U.S. refinery yield of kerosene-type jet fuel (which measures jet fuel’s share of refinery production) fell from an average of 10.5% in 2019 to as low as 3.8% in May 2020—the lowest level since at least 1993, the year EIA began reporting these data—and averaged 5.7% in September 2020.
COVID-19’s impact on aviation has not been limited to the United States; most parts of the world have experienced similar declines in air travel and less rapid recoveries. Based on raw flight data from Cirium, EIA estimates that as of November 30, 2020, commercial jet fuel consumption in the United States was 56% of the amount consumed one year ago, which is higher than the states of the Former Soviet Union (50%), the rest of Africa (39%), the rest of the Americas (39%), the Middle East and North Africa (35%), the rest of Asia (31%), and Europe (23%) (Figure 4). Jet fuel consumption in the United States may have recovered more rapidly than other regions because of the country’s relatively large share of domestic air travel, which has proved to be less affected by border closings and flight restrictions than international air travel. U.S. jet fuel consumption has not, however, recovered as quickly as China’s (including the transit hubs of Hong Kong and Macau), which EIA estimates was 69% of jet fuel consumption relative to the same time last year.
EIA’s methodology for estimating the volume of jet fuel consumed by commercial passenger flights has some limitations. The estimate does not measure total jet fuel consumption because it does not incorporate either non-passenger cargo flights or general aviation, a category that consists of unscheduled flights such as those made by recreational pilots, helicopters, or travelers on private aircrafts. The estimate also excludes jet fuel consumed by the U.S. military, which, depending on the year and the branch of military service, can be a large amount.
U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices increase
The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price increased less than 1 cent, remaining virtually unchanged at $2.16 per gallon on December 14, 38 cents lower than the same time last year. The Gulf Coast price increased nearly 1 cent, remaining virtually unchanged at $1.84 per gallon, and the Midwest and East Coast prices each increased by less than 1 cent, remaining virtually unchanged at $2.01 per gallon and $2.14 per gallon, respectively. The Rocky Mountain and West Coast prices each decreased by nearly 1 cent, remaining virtually unchanged at $2.17 per gallon and $2.77 per gallon, respectively.
The U.S. average diesel fuel price increased more than 3 cents to $2.56 per gallon on December 14, 49 cents lower than a year ago. The Midwest price increased more than 4 cents to $2.48 per gallon, the Gulf Coast price increased more than 3 cents to $2.31 per gallon, the East Coast price increased 3 cents to $2.60 per gallon, the West Coast price increased nearly 3 cents to $3.07 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price increased nearly 2 cents $2.56 per gallon.
Propane/propylene inventories decline
U.S. propane/propylene stocks decreased by 3.7 million barrels last week to 83.9 million barrels as of December 11, 2020, 2.6 million barrels (3.2%) greater than the five-year (2015-19) average inventory levels for this same time of year. Gulf Coast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels, 1.7 million barrels, and 0.1 million barrels, respectively. East Coast inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels.
Residential heating fuel prices increase
As of December 14, 2020, residential heating oil prices averaged nearly $2.35 per gallon, almost 6 cents per gallon above last week’s price but nearly 68 cents per gallon lower than last year’s price at this time. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged more than $1.54 per gallon, almost 4 cents per gallon above last week’s price but more than 55 cents per gallon lower than last year.
Residential propane prices averaged nearly $1.90 per gallon, almost 2 cents per gallon above last week’s price but more than 12 cents per gallon below last year’s price. Wholesale propane prices averaged nearly $0.72 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon lower than last week’s price and more than 9 cents per gallon below last year’s price.
