NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: September
27, 2010
This meeting was led by David Novak
(HPC) and attended by Geoff DiMego (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Bill Lapenta (EMC);
Chad Carry (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Bill
Bua (UCAR/COMET); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Mike Brennan (NHC); Richard
Pasch (NHC); Keith Brill (HPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Bill Ward (PR); Pete
Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher (ER), and Brian
Miretzky (ER);
1. NCO (Chris Caruso
Magee)
RTMA
2.5
km RTMA CONUS implemented September 28. This RTMA is run separate from the 5 km
RTMA.
RTMA-Guam
and the grid shift in the RTMA-Hawaii were implemented September 29.
Hurricane
Wave Model.
The
NCO parallel evaluation is underway.
NAEFS-AK
The NCO parallel for downscaling NAEFS sensible weather elements for Alaska is scheduled to begin Oct 5, for a planned implementation of November 30th.
Gridded
LAMP
A NCO parallel for Gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility products started September 28.
Air
Quality
Changes to the Air Quality Model were successfully implemented into
production on Sep. 21.� The CONUS AQM is
still running in both prod (old chemistry) and parallel (new chemistry).� No changes were planned or implemented for
the AQM CONUS.
For the latest schedule
updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)
Climate
Forecast System v2.0
A
major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS v2.0) is expected January 18th,
2011. The upgrade includes resolution changes, assimilation changes,
atmospheric and ocean model changes, addition of sea-ice and land modeling,
coupling, and other significant changes.
NAEFS
Addition
of the FNMOC ensemble is scheduled for January 11th, 2011.
GSI
Updates
to the datatypes are expected to be made in February 2011.
HWRF
Upgrade
scheduled for May 2011.
GEFS
Resolution
improvements and physics changes are expected in the June 2011 timeframe.
Resolution increases from T190L28 to T254L42. The physics will be updated to be
consistent with the current operational GFS.
GFS
A
resolution increase and possible physics improvements are expected in FY12.
2b.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)
RTMA
In addition to the
RTMA implementations noted in section 1, a 6th RTMA domain covering
the Canadian regions of the NWRFC domain is expected to be added in FY11. This
implementation will update/unify the 2DVAR analysis code used in all 6 regions,
add the use of hurricane model winds as first-guess for RTMA and update the QC
station lists submitted by/gathered from the regions.
High
Resolution Window Runs
A
major upgrade to the High Resolution Window Runs is planned for March
2011.� Plans include upgrading the WRF
code version (from v2.2 to v3.2) and adding a twice-per-day (00z & 12z) run
to cover
The upcoming
Q3FY2011 major implementation will transition the WRF-based NMM to a NEMS-based
NMM-B.� NEMS = NOAA Environmental
Modeling System which is, in turn, based on the basic principles of ESMF (Earth
System Modeling Framework).� NMMB =
Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on a B-Grid where multiscale comes from the
fact the NMMB can be run globally or regionally and, with telescoping nests, it
can run with synoptic scale, mesoscale to stormscale grid-spacing. This
transition allows the long-awaited establishment of multiple internal nests: 4
km over CONUS, 6 km over
SREF
A major upgrade to
SREF is planned now for FY11Q4 which eliminates the members based on the legacy
Eta and RSM models and adds members based on the NEMS-NMMB. �Membership will remain at 21 by having 7
members generated each by NMMB, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM. This upgrade would also
increase resolution from 32-25km to 22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may
transition to an ensemble perturbation approach. The WRF Development
Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate different initial perturbation
possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all
dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed.
Also
exploring the hybrid ensemble approach of Jun (2004) (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/hybrid_50thNWP.pdf)
applied to the high-res window runs. This involves adding the forecast
perturbations from the 21 SREF members to the Hi-res window NMM and ARW
forecasts.
Very
MMB is working on VSREF (http://ams.confex.com/ams/90annual/techprogram/paper_162463.htm).
It is a time-lagged, weighted ensemble of
Rapid
Refresh
MMB
is working with GSD on implementation details of the Rapid Refresh. The Rapid
Refresh will replace the RUC and remain an hourly updated system with 13 km
resolution run to 18 hours. The prediction model will change from RUC to
WRF-ARW, the analysis will change from RUC/3DVAR to NCEP�s GSI (same as is used
in GFS/GDAS and NAM/NDAS) and the domain will increase to cover most of
2c.
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (No report)
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL
CENTERS/REGIONS
3a.
MDL (Kathy Gilbert)
-Fiscal year implementations have been submitted to
NCO.
3b.
EMC
� The annual NCEP Model Suite Review will be held Dec 7-9 at the WWB.
HPC
� Asked NCO for operational GEMPAK conversion for the Climatology-Calibrated
Precipitation Analysis (CCPA).
ER � Working on getting the Gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility products in AWIPS.
�
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, October 25, 2010 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.