DOC | NOAA | NWS | NCEP Centers: | AWC | CPC | EMC | NCO | NHC | OPC | SPC | SWPC | WPC |
This year, three devastating major hurricanes made landfall (Harvey in Texas; Irma in the Caribbean and southeastern U.S.; and Maria in the Caribbean and Puerto Rico). Harvey was also the first major hurricane to hit the U.S. since Wilma struck Florida in October 2005. Additionally, four other storms hit the U.S., including Cindy in Texas, Emily and Phillipe in Florida, and Nate in Mississippi. “This was a hurricane season that wouldn’t quit,” said retired Navy Rear Adm. Timothy Gallaudet, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “The season started early with a storm in April and the peak of the season featured an onslaught of ten successive hurricanes. NOAA forecasters rose to this challenge to keep emergency officials and the public aware of anticipated hazards.”
Transitioning these products into operations is a significant milestone as OPC works to deliver authoritative weather forecasts to the maritime community. In the future, currently experimental versions of these products in the Pacific basin will become operational.
After several attempts to correct the problem failed, routine conference calls between NCEP’s NCO and OPC, NWS Headquarters, and the U.S. Coast
Guard began to develop a solution to the issue. A coordinated solution eventually resulted in a repairs to the chart transmission which concluded December 8. Among the fixes were NCO installing new servers at the U.S. Coast Guard’s Communications Command (COMMCOM) in Chesapeake, VA, a more frequent server patching cycle by the U.S. Coast Guard, and an agreement on a long-term solution to set up proper communications paths between NCWCP, COMMCOM, and Boulder. Feedback received from customers as far away as Germany have noted improvement while tuned into the 9110 kHz signal originating from a transmitter in Boston, MA.Transitioning these products into operations is a significant milestone as OPC works to deliver authoritative weather forecasts to the maritime community. In the future, currently experimental versions of these products in the Pacific basin will become operational.
Ocean Prediction Center Employees Elected to International Leadership RolesIn late October, representatives from 48 countries met in Geneva, Switzerland, for the fifth quadrennial meeting of the Joint World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). JCOMM is an intergovernmental body of technical experts that coordinate oceanographic and marine meteorological observing, data management, and forecast and warning services in support of safety of life and property at sea.
NWS joined representatives from OAR, NESDIS, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography on the U.S. Delegation. During the proceedings, Darin Figurskey, OPC Ocean Forecast Branch Chief, was elected as the Chairman on the International Ship Observations Team. The team sets international standards for weather and ocean observations from ships at sea. OPC Director Tom Cuff was elected to the JCOMM management team as the Chairman of the Services and Forecast Systems Coordination Group. These positions reflect NWS’s global leadership in marine weather forecasting and will help set a course to modernize weather services to the maritime community.Collaborative Effort Restored Radiofax Broadcast Quality
During the first quarter of FY18, through December 8, NCEP’s NCO and OPC coordinated with NWS Headquarters and the U.S. Coast Guard to restore the quality of radiofax transmissions. During the summer, there began chronic reports of garbled radiofax charts, with an example shown below, making critical weather information hard to interpret particularly where the lines shift. This was especially troublesome during an active tropical cyclone season, with many vessels still relying on radiofax to get authoritative, critical weather information from the OPC, TAFB, and WFO Honolulu.
After several attempts to correct the problem failed, routine conference calls between NCEP’s NCO and OPC, NWS Headquarters, and the U.S. Coast Guard began to develop a solution to the issue. A coordinated solution eventually resulted in a repairs to the chart transmission which concluded December 8. Among the fixes were NCO installing new servers at the U.S. Coast Guard’s Communications Command (COMMCOM) in Chesapeake, VA, a more frequent server patching cycle by the U.S. Coast Guard, and an agreement on a long-term solution to set up proper communications paths between NCWCP, COMMCOM, and Boulder. Feedback received from customers as far away as Germany have noted improvement while tuned into the 9110 kHz signal originating from a transmitter in Boston, MA.
GC: Forecasting winter precipitation is interesting from many perspectives. Our ability to forecast a winter storm depends on properties in the atmosphere. Think about a snow forecast like a recipe. If ingredients like cold air, moisture, and rising air come together in the right way, they will result in wintry weather.
Our forecasters, who are scientists, understand well the required ingredients to be confident in a snow forecast. Like any weather forecast, there is greater uncertainty many days in advance, but as we get closer, the picture usually becomes clearer. It is our forecasters’ job to recognize those atmospheric patterns that trigger heavy precipitation.
Q. What is the role of the Weather Prediction Center in developing winter weather forecasts?GC: The Weather Prediction Center collaborates with our colleagues across NOAA’s National Weather Service to provide detailed forecasts of snowstorms and other high-impact precipitation events.
For example, if we notice a significant winter-weather pattern developing across a large portion of the country, we have the experts here in Maryland to understand the dynamics of that weather and we share our analyses with local forecasting offices.
Q. What’s the relationship between forecasters at the Weather Prediction Center and those at the 122 weather forecast offices around the country?GC: We have a lot of interaction and collaboration. Forecasters across National Weather Service forecast offices share expertise and information. WPC offers “big picture” national-level forecasts that weather forecasts offices can then tailor for their local communities. We like to say, “One National Weather Service, one forecast.” What this means is that we work together to deliver the best possible forecast for your neighborhood.
Q. Greg, what do you enjoy most about forecasting winter weather?GC: Snow is the best. I love snow! I wouldn’t be a meteorologist without my love for winter weather. While winter storm forecasts can be tricky due to significant uncertainty about where rain/snow boundaries will set up, we appreciate the challenge and strive to ensure that citizens and businesses are well prepared for the impacts a winter storm may bring. With that preparedness under our belts, we can all relax in a safe place and enjoy the awesome power and beauty of a good snow storm.
More: Head on over to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center for national weather forecasts and to NOAA’s weather.gov for the latest local forecasts, watches and warnings for your Zip Code.FINAL Draft: As of 1/17/18 Gaches/Contey
The Executive Office of the President Office of Science and Technology (OSTP) and State Department wish to strengthen and formalize ties between the United States and Canada in our efforts to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure in North America to the adverse effects of space weather. The very productive discussions yielded several outcomes. Both Nations expressed interest in developing a broad framework for inter-governmental (bilateral) participation on space weather. Whether this should be a broader effort that would include the preparedness community, or just limited to services and research, remains to be determined. One potential mechanism for this is to develop a high-level joint Canada/US strategy developed through a White House-led effort. OSTP will work with State Department to explore potential options for this strategy. It was also agreed that a formal implementing arrangement on data sharing between the United States and Canada is necessary. Both Nations agreed that NOAA and NRCan should explore a collaborative effort to create a joint E-field product, which covers all of the United States and Canada. Both countries agreed that an annual meeting to continue the dialogue is appropriate.
This was the final scheduled meeting on the project following previous sessions which began in 2012 at the onset of the development. The goal of this particular meeting was a final technical development sprint, to fix outstanding software bugs from previous development, additional testing of the developed software, and addressing requirements for any future development. A request to baseline the software in AWIPS following this development has also been made. To summarize the overall project, the new High Seas Forecast Tool and Text Formatter greatly benefits the NHC/TAFB, Ocean Prediction Center, and WFO HFO/Central Pacific Hurricane Center, which are the three NOAA/NWS offices responsible for issuing High Seas Forecast products, per the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The new Tool and Text Formatter allows forecasters to spend more time on the meteorology, and less time typing the forecast. The Tool and Text Formatter reads and samples the GFE gridded database, ensuring consistency across all products issued by each office. The Text Formatter also provides the High Seas Forecast in a new polygon based format, which will allow for users to easily plot areas of interest.
HIRESW model changes include unification of the horizontal grid spacing at 3 km for both the ARW and NMMB models (3.2 km for both over CONUS); new horizontal grid spacing of 3.2km for CONUS and 3.0 for Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico, and of 3.2km for the CONUS NMMB. A second (40-level, different physics/PBL) ARW member is added for all domains (except Guam). The two ARW members for Puerto Rico are initialized off the RAP and NAM. The runs initialized from GFS now use 0.25 degree GFS data from the previous cycle for initial and lateral boundary conditions, since the HIRESW/HREF now runs earlier in the production cycle. The NMMB run increases the call frequency for PBL/surface physics and microphysics to every other time-step. The vertical level structure has changed within the primary 50 level ARW runs for all domains except Alaska (which was changed in an earlier model upgrade).