Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)
The goal of the ForeST Program is to develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant science and technology (S&T) milestones, by combining the judgments of many experts. The ForeST Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: a) efficient elicitation and aggregation of judgments using combinatorial prediction markets; b) generation of S&T forecasting questions from indicators within the scientific and patent literatures; c) methods for crowdsourcing question development and resolution with over 10,000 scientists and engineers, globally. As part of this program, ForeST-funded researchers manage the world’s largest S&T forecasting tournament, www.SciCast.org, generating public forecasts for hundreds of real-world S&T events. The ForeST Program directly leverages the programmatic and technical achievements of IARPA’s ACE and FUSE programs.
Performers (Prime Contractors)
BAE Systems; George Mason University; SRI International
Related Program(s)
Research Area(s)
- Forecasting
- Human judgment
- Machine learning
- Technical emergence
- Text analytics
- Big data
- Natural language processing
Related Publications
To access ForeST program-related publications, please visit Google Scholar.
Related Article(s)
- Forecasting Tomorrow’s Technology Today
- US Agencies Are Using the Web to Pick Our Brains
- Question Authority: Make Your Own “Top Tech 2015" Predictions
- U.S. Intelligence Community Explores More Rigorous Ways to Forecast Events
- When Was the Last Time You Forecasted the Future?
- This Is How America’s Spies Could Find the Next National Security Threat
