000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds in the 
Tehuantepec area continue this afternoon and through Friday 
afternoon. Strong northerly winds associated with a cold front
in the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to funnel into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas building to 12-14 ft. Winds are 
expected to diminish below gale force by Fri afternoon. Please 
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a low pressure near 10N74W across
Panama to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 08N119W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N 
to 10N between 100W and 110W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weakening ridge dominates the offshore waters. Moderate 
northerly winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula. 
Long period NW swell sweeping across the area is supporting seas
to 8-10 ft, which will slowly subside by Fri. A weakening cold 
front will push into northern Baja California this evening, and 
reach Punta Eugenia Fri morning. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds will develop Thu night in the wake of the front. 

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are noted 
with the latest ASCAT pass from 23N to 28N. This conditions will
prevail across the Gulf of California this afternoon. By tonight
into Fri, a weakening cold front will enter the Gulf with winds 
expected to increase slightly in association with the front. 

Strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region through the weekend, and could become gale-force once 
again Mon night as high pressure builds over southern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across the
Papagayo region through Mon as high pressure builds over the 
western Caribbean. Offshore seas for Guatemala and El Salvador 
will increase through Fri night from swell generated by gale- 
force winds in Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S-SW 
winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with mainly 
gentle to moderate N-NE winds north of the trough axis. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front approaching the NW part of the forecast area is 
causing high pressure located near 36N135W to weaken. Weakening 
ridge extends southeastward from the high to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ will continue to support a large area of
fresh trade winds between 120W and 140W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in 
NW swell in the area of fresh trades. Winds and seas will slowly 
diminish across most of the area today as the cold front pushes 
south of 30N. The front will move southward and weaken around 27N
through Fri.

$$
Torres