Population Estimates Research: Demographic Analysis

Demographic Analysis

Demographic analysis is a technique used to develop an understanding of the age, sex, and racial composition of a population and how it has changed over time through the basic demographic processes of birth, death, and migration. Demographic Analysis (usually abbreviated as DA) also refers to a specific set of techniques for developing national population estimates by age, sex, and race from administrative records to be used to assess the quality of the decennial census. The development of national DA estimates for April 1, 2010 has made it possible to again conduct a systematic analysis of the differences between these estimates and the census counts.

The DA population estimates are constructed using vital statistics, estimates of net international migration, and for the population aged 65 and over, data from Medicare. Traditionally, the DA estimates have been disaggregated by sex and single year of age, and the race categories have been Black and non-Black. New data sources and changes in the racial and ethnic make-up of the nation and patterns of international migration present both challenges and opportunities for DA in 2010. For 2010, the Census Bureau produced the traditional DA estimates described above and also researched ways to expand the DA categories (e.g., estimates for Hispanics and non-Hispanics).

On December 6, 2010, the DA estimates for April 1, 2010 were released at a news conference and technical meeting. Event materials, including the DA technical paper and a transcript of the press conference, are available for download. Background materials, consisting of articles on DA contributed by demographers external and internal to the Census Bureau, are also available.

A revised set of 2010 Demographic Analysis (DA) middle series estimates were released in May 2012. These estimates include more recent data and improvements from ongoing research. Updates from previous DA estimates include revised estimates of births, deaths, net international migration, and the Armed Forces overseas population. In addition, the revised middle series of estimates uses the components of population change (births, deaths, and net international migration) to estimate the population aged 65 to 74 years instead of the Medicare enrollment data previously used. Finally, the revised middle series includes estimates for the Black alone-or-in-combination population aged 0 to 29 years.

Revised 2010 DA Estimates (released May 2012)

The revised 2010 DA middle series estimate of the total resident population is 308,345,764, which may be compared to the previously released DA middle series estimate of 308,475,178. Additional documentation on the revised series is available here.