Monitoring the Future Study: Trends in Prevalence of Various Drugs

On December 15, the National Institute on Drug Abuse announced new data from the annual Monitoring the Future study conducted by researchers at the University of Michigan. On December 16, a data processing error was found. This error misrepresented the scope of the decreases in daily or near-daily vaping of nicotine, marijuana, and just flavoring. NIDA’s materials were updated on December 17 to reflect the correct data.

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Monitoring the Future Study: Trends in Prevalence of Various Drugs for 8th Graders, 10th Graders, and 12th Graders; 2017 - 2020 (in percent)*
Drug Time Period 8th Graders 10th Graders 12th Graders
2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020
Illicit Drugs Lifetime 18.2 18.7 20.4 21.3 34.3 [36.3] 37.5 37.3 48.9 [47.8] 47.4 46.6
Past Year 12.9 13.4 14.8 15.6 27.8 [29.9] 31.0 30.4 39.9 [38.8] 38.0 36.8
Past Month 7.0 7.3 8.5 8.7 17.2 [18.3] 19.8 18.2 24.9 24.0 23.7 22.2
Alcohol Lifetime 23.1 23.5 24.5 25.6 42.2 42.2 43.1 46.4 61.5 [58.5] 58.5 61.5
Past Year 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.5 37.7 37.8 37.7 40.7 55.7 [53.3] 52.1 55.3
Past Month 8.0 8.2 7.9 9.9 19.7 [18.6] 18.4 20.3 33.2 [30.2] 29.3 33.6
Daily 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.2 [1.7] 2.7
5+ Drinks/Row 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.5 9.8 8.7 8.5 9.6 16.6 13.8 14.4 16.8
Cigarettes (any use) Lifetime 9.4 9.1 10.0 11.5 15.9 16.0 14.2 13.9 26.6 [23.8] 22.3 24.0
Past Month [1.9] 2.2 2.3 2.2 5.0 4.2 3.4 3.2 9.7 [7.6] [5.7] 7.5
Daily [0.6] 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.2 4.2 3.6 [2.4] 3.1
1/2-pack+/day 0.2 0.3 0.2 [0.1] 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.7 1.5 [0.9] 1.4
Smokeless Tobacco Lifetime 6.2 6.4 7.1 7.8 9.1 10.0 9.2 9.3 [11.0] 10.1 9.8 -
Past Month [1.7] 2.1 2.5 2.3 3.8 3.9 3.2 3.5 [4.9] 4.2 3.5 -
Daily 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 2.0 1.6 1.1 -
Any Vaping Lifetime 18.5 [21.5] 24.3 24.1 30.9 [36.9] [41.0] 41.0 35.8 [42.5] 45.6 47.2
Past Year 13.3 [17.6] 20.1 19.2 23.9 [32.3] 35.7 34.6 27.8 [37.3] 40.6 39.0
Past Month 6.6 [10.4] 12.2 12.5 13.1 [21.7] [25.0] 23.5 16.6 [26.7] [30.9] 28.2
Vaping (Nicotine) Lifetime 10.6 13.5 20.3 22.7 21.4 28.6 36.3 38.7 25.0 34.0 40.8 44.3
Past Year 7.5 10.9 16.5 16.6 15.8 24.7 30.7 30.7 18.8 29.7 35.3 34.5
Past Month 3.5 6.1 9.6 10.5 8.2 16.1 19.9 19.3 11.0 20.9 25.5 24.7
Daily - - 2.0 2.0 - - 6.8 5.6 - - 11.6 8.6
Vaping (Marijuana) Lifetime 4.0 5.5 9.0 10.2 9.8 14.2 21.8 22.7 11.9 15.6 23.7 [27.9]
Past Year 3.0 4.4 7.0 8.1 8.1 12.4 19.4 19.1 9.5 13.1 20.8 22.1
Past Month 1.6 2.6 3.9 4.2 4.3 7.0 12.6 11.3 4.9 7.5 14.0 12.2
Daily - - 0.8 0.7 - - 3.0 [1.7] - - 3.5 2.5
Vaping (Just Flavoring) Lifetime 17.0 19.4 18.9 17.8 27.5 31.7 28.3 27.7 30.7 34.1 29.0 29.8
Past Year 11.8 15.1 14.7 12.3 19.3 24.7 20.8 18.4 20.6 25.7 20.3 16.6
Past Month 5.3 8.1 7.7 6.8 9.2 13.1 10.5 10.4 9.7 13.5 10.7 8.4
Daily - - 1.2 [0.6] - - 2.0 1.6 - - 2.8 1.9
JUUL Lifetime - - 18.9 16.9 - - 32.8 30.7 - - 33.0 36.2
Past Year - - 14.7 11.7 - - 28.7 [20.0] - - 28.4 [22.7]
Past Month - - 8.5 6.3 - - 18.5 [12.3] - - 20.8 [12.9]
Marijuana Lifetime 13.5 13.9 15.2 14.8 30.7 [32.6] 34.0 33.3 45.0 [43.6] 43.7 43.7
Past Year 10.1 10.5 11.8 11.4 25.5 [27.5] 28.8 28.0 37.1 [35.9] 35.7 35.2
Past Month 5.5 5.6 6.6 6.5 [15.7] 16.7 18.4 16.6 22.9 22.2 22.3 21.1
Daily 0.8 0.7 [1.3] 1.1 2.9 3.4 [4.8] 4.4 5.9 5.8 6.4 6.9
Synthetic Marijuana (K2/Spice) Past Year [2.0] 1.6 [2.7] [1.6] 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.7 3.5 3.3 2.4
Over-the-Counter Cough/Cold Medicine Past Year 2.1 2.8 3.2 4.6 3.6 3.3 2.6 3.3 3.2 3.4 2.5 3.2
Inhalants Lifetime [8.9] 8.7 9.5 [12.6] 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.4 4.9 4.4 [5.3] [3.8]
Past Year [4.7] 4.6 4.7 6.1 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.9 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.1
Past Month 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7
Amphetamine Lifetime 5.7 5.9 6.8 8.9 8.2 8.6 8.2 7.0 9.2 8.6 7.7 7.3
Past Year 3.5 3.7 4.1 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.2 4.3 5.9 5.5 [4.5] 4.3
Past Month 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.7
Adderall Past Year 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.7 4.0 4.1 3.1 2.9 5.5 [4.6] 3.9 4.4
Ritalin Past Year [0.4] 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.7
Methamphetamine Lifetime 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.7
Past Year 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.4
Past Month 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8
Hallucinogens Lifetime 1.9 2.2 2.4 3.0 4.2 3.9 4.7 4.8 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.5
Past Year 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.4 4.4 4.3 4.6 5.3
Past Month 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 [1.3] 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.8
LSD Lifetime 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 3.0 2.8 [3.6] 3.8 5.0 5.1 5.6 5.9
Past Year 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.9
Past Month 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 [1.1] 1.0 1.2 1.0 [1.4] 1.4
MDMA Lifetime 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.8 2.4 [3.2] 2.6 4.9 4.1 3.3 3.6
Past Year 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.2 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.8
Past Month 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8
Salvia Past Year [0.4] 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.7
Cocaine Lifetime 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.5 1.6 4.2 3.9 3.8 4.1
Past Year 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.9
Past Month 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 [0.4] 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8
Crack Cocaine Lifetime 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6
Past Year 0.5 0.4 0.4 [0.2] 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2
Past Month 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4
Heroin Lifetime 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4
Past Year 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Past Month 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 [0.2] 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Narcotics other than Heroin Lifetime - - - - - - - - 6.8 6.0 5.3 5.3
Past Year - - - - - - - - 4.2 3.4 [2.7] 2.1
Past Month - - - - - - - - 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.7
OxyContin Past Year 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 [1.0] 2.7 2.3 1.7 2.4
Vicodin Past Year 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 [2.0] 1.7 [1.1] 1.2
Ketamine Past Year - - - - - - - - 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.3
Tranquilizers Lifetime 3.4 3.5 4.0 3.9 6.0 6.0 5.7 4.9 7.5 6.6 6.1 7.0
Past Year 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 4.1 3.9 3.4 2.6 4.7 3.9 3.4 3.2
Past Month 0.7 0.9 [1.2] 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 [0.7] 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.0
Steroids Lifetime 1.1 1.1 [1.5] 2.0 1.1 1.2 [1.6] 1.7 0.6 1.6 1.6 2.0
Past Year 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2
Past Month 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.2

Note: Data collection stopped prematurely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Completed surveys represent about 25% of the size of a typical year’s data collection. However, results were gathered from a broad geographic range and were statistically weighted to be nationally representative.

* Data in brackets indicate statistically significant change from the previous year.

The use of any prescription drug includes use of any of the following: amphetamines, sedatives (barbiturates), narcotics other than heroin, or tranquilizers “…without a doctor telling you to use them.”

In 2017, the surveys switched from asking about vaping in general to asking separately about vaping nicotine, marijuana, and just flavoring. Beginning in 2017, data presented for Any Vaping are based on these new questions.