3.5. Manpower Estimates

DEFENSE ACQUISITION GUIDEBOOK
Chapter 3 -- Affordability and Life-Cycle Resource Estimates

3.5. Manpower Estimates

3.5. Manpower Estimates

For major defense acquisition programs, manpower estimates are required by

• (1) 10 U.S.C. 2434, which directs the Secretary of Defense to consider an estimate of the personnel required to operate, maintain, support, and provide system-related training in advance of approval of the development, or production and deployment; and
• (2) DoD Instruction 5000.02, Enclosure 4, Table 2-1, which directs development of a manpower estimate at Milestones B, C, and full-rate production.

Manpower estimates serve as the authoritative source for out-year projections of active-duty and reserve end-strength, civilian full-time equivalents, and contractor support work-years. As such, references to manpower in other program documentation should be consistent with the manpower estimate once it is finalized. In particular, the manpower estimates should be consistent with the manpower levels assumed in the final Affordability Analysis and the Cost Analysis Requirements Description (CARD).

Organizational responsibilities in preparing the manpower estimate vary by DoD Component. Normally, the manpower estimate is prepared by an analytic organization in the DoD Component manpower community, in consultation with the program manager. The manpower estimates are approved by the DoD Component manpower authority (for the military departments, normally the Assistant Secretary for Manpower and Reserve Affairs).

For Acquisition Category ID programs, a preliminary manpower estimate should be made available at least six months in advance of the Defense Acquisition Board (DAB) milestone review, and should be reflected in the draft CARD due at that time, in order to support the development of cost estimates and affordability analyses. The final manpower estimate should be fully staffed and submitted to the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness (USD(P&R)) in sufficient time to support the Overarching Integrated Product Team (OIPT) review in preparation of the DAB meeting. Normally this would be four weeks prior to the OIPT review meeting. The USD(P&R) staff will review the final manpower estimate and provide comments to the OIPT.

The exact content of the manpower estimate is tailored to fit the particular program under review. A sample format for the manpower estimate is displayed in the Table 3.5.T1 below. In addition, the estimate should identify if there are any resource shortfalls (i.e., discrepancies between manpower requirements and authorizations) in any fiscal year addressed by the estimate. Where appropriate, the manpower estimate should compare manpower levels for the new system with those required for similar legacy systems, if any. The manpower estimate also should include a narrative that describes the scope of each functional area (operations, maintenance, support, and training), and the methods, factors, and assumptions used to estimate the manpower for each functional area. See section 6.3.1.2 and section 6.3.1.3 for further information concerning manpower.

Table 3.5.T1. Sample Manpower Estimate Format

MANPOWER ESTIMATE

(Program Title)

SERVICE

¹Provide separate estimates for Active and Reserve Components for each Service.
²Report manpower by fiscal year (FY) starting with initial fielding and continuing through retirement and disposal of the system (to include environmental clean-up).
³Until fielding is completed.
⁴Provide estimates for manpower requirements and authorizations. Provide deltas between requirements and authorizations for each fiscal year.

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