4.3.3. Decision Analysis Process
4.3.3. Decision Analysis Process
The Decision Analysis process transforms a broadly stated decision opportunity into a traceable, defendable, and actionable plan. It encompasses one or more discrete analyses at one or more lower (e.g., system element) levels and aggregates them into a higher-level view (e.g., system “scorecard” presentation) relevant to the decision maker and other stakeholders. Decision Analysis can be the central process for formulating, managing, and executing an effective and efficient program at any point in the life cycle.
Decision Analysis and associated trade studies should be integrated with, and mutually supportive of, aspects of several SE processes in the early stages of the program, in particular:
- Technical Planning (see DAG section 4.3.2. Technical Planning Process)
- Technical Assessment (see DAG section 4.3.4. Technical Assessment Process)
- Stakeholder Requirements Definition (see DAG section 4.3.10. Stakeholder Requirements Definition Process)
- Requirements Analysis (see DAG section 4.3.11. Requirements Analysis Process)
- Architecture Design (see DAG section 4.3.12. Architecture Design Process)
A well-executed decision analysis or trade study helps the Program Manager and the Systems Engineer understand the impact of various uncertainties, identify one or more course(s) of action that balance competing objectives, and objectively communicate the results to decision makers. As such, it provides the basis for selecting a viable and effective alternative from among many under consideration.
Decision Analysis applies to technical decisions at all levels, from evaluating top-level architectural concepts to sizing major system elements to selecting small design details. The breadth and depth of the analysis should be scaled to both the scope of the decision and the needs and expectations of the decision maker(s).
Activities and Products
Decision Analysis teams generally include a lead analyst with a suite of reasoning tools; subject matter experts with access to appropriate models and analytical tools; and a representative set of end users and other stakeholders. A robust Decision Analysis process acknowledges that the decision maker has full responsibility, authority, and accountability for the decision at hand.
Decision Analysis typically includes the following steps:
- Review requirements and assumptions to establish the overall decision context
- Frame/structure the decision in terms of supporting program/project objectives
- Identify methods and tools to be used in the analyses (see DAG section 4.3.19. Tools and Techniques)
- Develop decision criteria (objectives and measures), criteria weight, and associated rationale
- Convey and track assumptions
- Identify and define alternatives to be evaluated (for high-level analyses these are generally directed, although additional ones may arise during the course of the analysis)
- Analyze and assess alternatives against criteria
- Synthesize results
- Analyze sensitivities
- Develop decision briefing with action/implementation plan(s)
- Make appropriate recommendation(s) to decision maker as expected/requested
Sound recommendations and action plans are the principal output of a well-framed and well-executed Decision Analysis process. The ability to drill down quickly from overall trade space visualizations to detailed analyses that support the synthesized views is particularly useful to decision makers in understanding the basis of observations and conclusions.
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