‹ Analysis & Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Next Release Date: January 10, 2017 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures
Natural Gas
- Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.3 Bcf/d decline from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual production decline since 2005. In 2017, forecast natural gas production increases by an average of 2.5 Bcf/d from the 2016 level.
- Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports, contribute to the Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an average of $2.49 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 to $3.27/MMBtu in 2017. NYMEX contract values for March 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 1 suggest that a price range from $2.20/MMBtu to $5.04/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices in March 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
U.S. Natural Gas Summary | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2015 | 2016 projected | 2017 projected | |
Prices | (dollars per thousand cubic feet) | |||
Henry Hub Spot | 4.53 | 2.72 | 2.57 | 3.37 |
Residential Sector | 10.94 | 10.36 | 10.24 | 11.02 |
Commercial Sector | 8.88 | 7.90 | 7.34 | 8.12 |
Industrial Sector | 5.61 | 3.91 | 3.56 | 4.52 |
Supply | (billion cubic feet per day) | |||
Marketed Production | 75.34 | 78.78 | 77.48 | 79.94 |
Dry Gas Production | 70.93 | 74.14 | 72.49 | 74.80 |
Pipeline Imports | 7.22 | 7.20 | 7.91 | 7.60 |
LNG Imports | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.21 |
Consumption | (billion cubic feet per day) | |||
Residential Sector | 13.94 | 12.63 | 11.86 | 12.51 |
Commercial Sector | 9.50 | 8.76 | 8.48 | 8.91 |
Industrial Sector | 20.95 | 20.64 | 21.04 | 21.31 |
Electric Power Sector | 22.32 | 26.34 | 27.60 | 26.75 |
Total Consumption | 72.86 | 74.65 | 75.22 | 75.96 |
Primary Assumptions | (percent change from previous year) | |||
Heating Degree Days | 1.9 | -10.2 | -5.6 | 6.5 |
Cooling Degree Days | -0.7 | 14.7 | 4.4 | -8.1 |
Commercial Employment | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production | -0.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
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Related Tables | |||||||
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Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter | |||||||
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary | |||||||
Table 2. Energy Prices | |||||||
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories | |||||||
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices | |||||||
Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption | |||||||
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions | |||||||
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data | |||||||
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data |
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