Animation shows Hurricane Surge On-Demand Forecast System validation of Hurricane Isabel's storm surge.

The Office of Coast Survey is developing a new hurricane storm surge model for National Hurricane Center assessments of flooding conditions. The Hurricane Surge On-Demand Forecast System (HSOFS) will be part of NOAA's two-tiered modeling approach for storm surge.

On the first tier, the National Hurricane Center uses the efficient P-Surge model to address critical uncertainties in a hurricane forecast. The HSOFS is a more complex and advanced model, run on-demand by the National Hurricane Center as the storm makes landfall. The new model will produce more accurate flooding assessment for response and recovery.

Coast Survey is using the ADCIRC coastal ocean model for HSOFS. ADCIRC is an advanced, large-scale storm surge model with locally high resolution to predict flooding in coastal communities. HSOFS simulates hurricanes as they track across the Western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, and covers the coast from Texas to Maine including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. HSOFS has been validated by simulating more than ten historical storm surge events, including 2003's Hurricane Isabel, which had a severe impact across the Chesapeake Bay region.

The HSOFS will be installed on NOAA's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System ahead of the 2016 hurricane season.

January 4, 2016