Project

Development of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model to Illustrate Future Landscape Change

Project Summary

Affiliation(s): Alaska CSC

Principal Investigator(s):
  • David McGuire (Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)

Ongoing and future climate change throughout Alaska has the potential to affect terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide to the people of Alaska and the nation. These services include the gathering of food and fiber by Alaskan communities, the importance of ecosystems to recreation, cultural, and spiritual activities of people in Alaska, and the way that land cover and vegetation in ecosystems affect temperature and water flow (runoff, flooding etc.) throughout the state.

Assessments of the effects of climate change on these “ecosystem services” have been hindered by a lack of tools (e.g. computer models) capable of forecasting future landscapes in a changing climate while taking into account numerous other factors such as changing fire patterns, vegetation growth, organic materials in soil, and seasonal thaw of frozen ground.  As a response to this need, the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) was designed and developed to help resource managers understand how Alaskan ecosystems will change in the future as our climate changes. The IEM generates maps and other products that illustrate how arctic and boreal landscapes might change in response to other climate change-driven changes in vegetation, hydrology, permafrost (e.g. frozen ground) etc.

The IEM integrates three different models:
- the Alaska Frame-Based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO), which simulates wildland fire and vegetation establishment and growth;
- the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab model (GIPL), which simulates characteristics of soils, hydrology, vegetation, plant community composition, biomass, and carbon balance in soil;
- and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) [which includes the Dynamic Vegetation (DVM) and Dynamic Organic Soil (DOS) models], which simulates permafrost (i.e. frozen ground) dynamics and changes.

Izembek National Wildlife Refuge - Credit: Kristine Sowl, USFWS

Affiliation(s): Alaska CSC

Principal Investigator(s):
  • David McGuire (Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)
Co-Investigator(s):
  • T. Scott Rupp (Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)
  • Vladimir Romanovsky (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)
  • Eugenie Euskirchen (Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)
  • Sergey Marchenko (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)

Start Date: September 2011

End Date: August 2016

Tags: integrated ecosystem model, Alaska, CSC, Alaska CSC, 2011, imageryBaseMapsEarthCover, coastline, border, boundaries, boundary, countries, country, Alaska

Fiscal Year: FY 2011 Projects

Publications & Other

  • Addressing a systematic bias in carbon dioxide flux measurements with the EC150 and the IRGASON open-path gas analyzers

      • Alaska IEM Fact Sheet

        • AlaskaIEM_Factsheet_April2012 (1).pdf (Download)

        • Associated Data for the IEM Project

          • Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska

                • Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

                    • Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

                          • Final Report: Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project

                            • IEM Poster (Presented at 2012 American Geophysical Union Meeting)

                              • Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska

                                    • Outline of Major Activities

                                      • Polygonal tundra geomorphological change in response to warming alters future CO2 and CH4 flux on the Barrow Peninsula

                                          • Spatial distribution of thermokarst terrain in Arctic Alaska

                                              • Statistically downscaled projections of snow/rain partitioning for Alaska

                                                  • The Effect of Snow: How to Better Model Ground Surface Temperatures

                                                      • The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska and Northwest Canada

                                                        • Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

                                                            • Tundra burning in 2007 – Did sea ice retreat matter?

                                                                • Scientists Predict Gradual, Prolonged Permafrost Greenhouse Gas Emissions

                                                                  Download all map files

                                                                  • AIEM_domain.shp [x-gis/x-shapefile] (Download)
                                                                  • AIEM_domain.dbf [application/octet-stream] (Download)
                                                                  • AIEM_domain.shx [x-gis/x-shapefile] (Download)
                                                                  • AIEM_domain.prj [text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1] (Download)
                                                                  • AIEM_domain.shp.xml [application/fgdc+xml] (Download)
                                                                  • AIEM_domain.sbn [x-gis/x-shapefile] (Download)
                                                                  • AIEM_domain.sbx [x-gis/x-shapefile] (Download)
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