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Benchmark Article (PDF)
BLS National Establishment Survey Estimates Revised to Incorporate March 2012 Benchmarks
Introduction
Kerrie Leslie
Brenda Loya
Kerrie Leslie and Brenda Loya are economists in the Division of Current Employment Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691-6555; e-mail: CESInfo@bls.gov
With the release of data for January 2013 on February 1, 2013, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision of National estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments. Each year, the CES survey realigns its sample-based estimates to incorporate universe counts of employment — a process known as benchmarking. Comprehensive counts of employment, or benchmarks, are derived primarily from unemployment insurance (UI) tax reports that nearly all employers are required to file with State Workforce Agencies.
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Summary of the benchmark revisions
The March 2012 benchmark level for Total nonfarm employment is 132,505,000; this figure is 424,000 above the sample-based estimate for March 2012, an adjustment of 0.3 percent. Table 1 shows the Total nonfarm percentage benchmark revisions for the past ten years.
Table 1. Percent differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector, March 2002-2012(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
00-000000 |
Total nonfarm |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.6 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.7 |
-0.3 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
(Level difference in thousands) |
(-313) |
(-122) |
(203) |
(-158) |
(752) |
(-293) |
(-89) |
(-902) |
(-378) |
(162) |
(424) |
05-000000 |
Total private |
-.4 |
-.2 |
.2 |
-.2 |
.7 |
-.2 |
-.1 |
-.9 |
-.4 |
.1 |
.4 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
|
.9 |
.7 |
-.3 |
1.2 |
(2) |
.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
-.4 |
1.6 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
|
-.8 |
.6 |
.5 |
2.6 |
.1 |
.7 |
-2.9 |
-1.3 |
-.5 |
1.8 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
|
-1.1 |
-.4 |
-.3 |
-.1 |
-1.0 |
-.1 |
-.7 |
-1.0 |
.1 |
-.2 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
|
(2) |
.2 |
.3 |
.6 |
.5 |
.2 |
-1.2 |
-.6 |
.4 |
.6 |
50-000000 |
Information |
|
-2.6 |
-1.0 |
-2.1 |
-.5 |
-1.8 |
.3 |
-1.5 |
-.4 |
-.4 |
1.8 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
|
.2 |
.1 |
-.8 |
.4 |
-1.3 |
-.3 |
-.1 |
.4 |
.9 |
.6 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
|
-.7 |
-.2 |
-.4 |
1.3 |
.2 |
-.4 |
-.8 |
(2) |
.7 |
(2) |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
|
.3 |
.2 |
(2) |
.5 |
-.2 |
-.1 |
-.3 |
(2) |
-.5 |
(2) |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
|
.5 |
1.2 |
.4 |
.3 |
-.8 |
-1.1 |
-.6 |
-.6 |
.7 |
.8 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
1.0 |
1.4 |
.5 |
-1.3 |
.5 |
.3 |
.2 |
-.8 |
.2 |
-2.0 |
1.1 |
90-000000 |
Government |
|
.3 |
.1 |
(2) |
(2) |
-.2 |
.2 |
.1 |
.1 |
.1 |
-.3 |
(1)Differences are based on comparisons of final published March estimates and benchmark levels, as originally published.
(2)Less than 0.05 percent.
To Table of Figures
Table 2 shows the nonfarm employment benchmarks for March 2012, not seasonally adjusted, by industry. The majority of supersectors had upward revisions, with the exception of Education and health services, Manufacturing, and Government. The largest upward revision occurred in Trade, transportation, and utilities, 145,000, or 0.6 percent. Within this sector, the revision was concentrated in Retail trade, which was revised upward by 78,000 or 0.5 percent. Leisure and hospitality was revised upward by 104,000 or 0.8 percent, with the largest positive revision of 64,000 or 0.7 percent in Food services and drinking places. Construction had an upward revision of 93,000 or 1.8 percent. The largest share of this revision occurred in Specialty trade contractors which had a revision of 60,000 or 1.8 percent. Other services (Repair and maintenance, Personal and laundry services, and Membership associations and organizations) revised upward by 59,000 or 1.1 percent. Information and Financial activities had upward revisions of 47,000 or 1.8 percent and 45,000 or 0.6 percent, respectively. Employment in Mining and logging revised up by 13,000 (1.6 percent). The smallest upward revision occurred in and Professional and business services, 2,000 (less than 0.05 percent).
Three supersectors saw negative revisions. The largest downward revision occurred in Government, -57,000 or -0.3 percent. Within Government, Local government experienced the largest downward revision of -48,000 or -0.3 percent. The largest share of this revision was in Local government education with a revision of -66,000 or -0.8 percent. Manufacturing had a downward revision of -25,000 or -0.2 percent, which was mostly concentrated in Nondurable goods, -20,000 or -0.5 percent. Within Nondurable goods the largest downward revisions occurred in Chemicals, -15,000 or -1.9 percent, and Paper and paper products, -12,000 or -3.2 percent. Education and health services had the smallest downward revision of -2,000 (less than 0.05 percent), with largely offsetting revisions in Educational services, 28,000 or 0.8 percent, and Health care and social assistance, -30,000 or -0.2 percent.
Table 2. Nonfarm employment benchmarks by industry, March 2012 (in thousands)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Benchmark |
Estimate |
Differences |
Amount |
Percent |
00-000000 |
Total nonfarm |
132,505 |
132,081 |
424 |
0.3 |
05-000000 |
Total private |
110,157 |
109,676 |
481 |
.4 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
17,971 |
17,890 |
81 |
.5 |
07-000000 |
Service-providing |
114,534 |
114,191 |
343 |
.3 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
92,186 |
91,786 |
400 |
.4 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
836 |
823 |
13 |
1.6 |
10-113300 |
Logging |
47 |
46 |
1 |
2.1 |
10-210000 |
Mining |
788 |
776 |
12 |
1.5 |
10-211000 |
Oil and gas extraction |
184 |
191 |
-7 |
-3.8 |
10-212000 |
Mining, except oil and gas |
216 |
212 |
4 |
1.9 |
10-212100 |
Coal mining |
89 |
86 |
3 |
3.4 |
10-213000 |
Support activities for mining |
389 |
373 |
16 |
4.1 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
5,313 |
5,220 |
93 |
1.8 |
20-236000 |
Construction of buildings |
1,182 |
1,172 |
10 |
.8 |
20-237000 |
Heavy and civil engineering construction |
785 |
761 |
24 |
3.1 |
20-238000 |
Specialty trade contractors |
3,347 |
3,287 |
60 |
1.8 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
11,822 |
11,847 |
-25 |
-.2 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
7,415 |
7,420 |
-5 |
-.1 |
31-321000 |
Wood products |
332 |
326 |
6 |
1.8 |
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
358 |
358 |
0 |
(1) |
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
400 |
404 |
-4 |
-1.0 |
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
1,393 |
1,384 |
9 |
.6 |
31-333000 |
Machinery |
1,094 |
1,097 |
-3 |
-.3 |
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
1,097 |
1,108 |
-11 |
-1.0 |
31-334100 |
Computer and peripheral equipment |
157 |
163 |
-6 |
-3.8 |
31-334200 |
Communications equipment |
111 |
110 |
1 |
.9 |
31-334400 |
Semiconductors and electronic components |
385 |
387 |
-2 |
-.5 |
31-334500 |
Electronic instruments |
403 |
402 |
1 |
.2 |
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
370 |
373 |
-3 |
-.8 |
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
1,447 |
1,448 |
-1 |
-.1 |
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
349 |
348 |
1 |
.3 |
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
575 |
575 |
0 |
(1) |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
4,407 |
4,427 |
-20 |
-.5 |
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
1,434 |
1,426 |
8 |
.6 |
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
119 |
120 |
-1 |
-.8 |
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
116 |
113 |
3 |
2.6 |
32-315000 |
Apparel |
150 |
150 |
0 |
(1) |
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
380 |
392 |
-12 |
-3.2 |
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
462 |
454 |
8 |
1.7 |
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
110 |
111 |
-1 |
-.9 |
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
783 |
798 |
-15 |
-1.9 |
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
641 |
643 |
-2 |
-.3 |
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
214 |
220 |
-6 |
-2.8 |
32-329300 |
Leather and allied products |
30 |
30 |
0 |
(1) |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
25,082 |
24,937 |
145 |
.6 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
5,608 |
5,563 |
45 |
.8 |
41-425000 |
Electronic markets and agents and brokers |
859 |
849 |
10 |
1.2 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
14,574 |
14,496 |
78 |
.5 |
42-441000 |
Motor vehicle and parts dealers |
1,715 |
1,705 |
10 |
.6 |
42-441100 |
Automobile dealers |
1,080 |
1,075 |
5 |
.5 |
42-442000 |
Furniture and home furnishings stores |
432 |
443 |
-11 |
-2.5 |
42-443000 |
Electronics and appliance stores |
510 |
504 |
6 |
1.2 |
42-444000 |
Building material and garden supply stores |
1,167 |
1,151 |
16 |
1.4 |
42-445000 |
Food and beverage stores |
2,814 |
2,834 |
-20 |
-.7 |
42-446000 |
Health and personal care stores |
989 |
988 |
1 |
.1 |
42-447000 |
Gasoline stations |
827 |
818 |
9 |
1.1 |
42-448000 |
Clothing and clothing accessories stores |
1,330 |
1,315 |
15 |
1.1 |
42-451000 |
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores |
560 |
549 |
11 |
2.0 |
42-452000 |
General merchandise stores |
3,032 |
3,015 |
17 |
.6 |
42-452100 |
Department stores |
1,477 |
1,503 |
-26 |
-1.8 |
42-453000 |
Miscellaneous store retailers |
766 |
749 |
17 |
2.2 |
42-454000 |
Nonstore retailers |
432 |
426 |
6 |
1.4 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
4,348 |
4,318 |
30 |
.7 |
43-481000 |
Air transportation |
459 |
457 |
2 |
.4 |
43-482000 |
Rail transportation |
230 |
233 |
-3 |
-1.3 |
43-483000 |
Water transportation |
62 |
66 |
-4 |
-6.5 |
43-484000 |
Truck transportation |
1,313 |
1,308 |
5 |
.4 |
43-485000 |
Transit and ground passenger transportation |
456 |
444 |
12 |
2.6 |
43-486000 |
Pipeline transportation |
44 |
44 |
0 |
(1) |
43-487000 |
Scenic and sightseeing transportation |
23 |
26 |
-3 |
-13.0 |
43-488000 |
Support activities for transportation |
573 |
578 |
-5 |
-.9 |
43-492000 |
Couriers and messengers |
521 |
519 |
2 |
.4 |
43-493000 |
Warehousing and storage |
667 |
644 |
23 |
3.4 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
552 |
561 |
-9 |
-1.6 |
50-000000 |
Information |
2,672 |
2,625 |
47 |
1.8 |
50-511000 |
Publishing industries, except Internet |
738 |
739 |
-1 |
-.1 |
50-512000 |
Motion picture and sound recording industries |
359 |
356 |
3 |
.8 |
50-515000 |
Broadcasting, except Internet |
287 |
282 |
5 |
1.7 |
50-517000 |
Telecommunications |
866 |
839 |
27 |
3.1 |
50-518000 |
Data processing, hosting and related services |
252 |
243 |
9 |
3.6 |
50-519000 |
Other information services |
171 |
167 |
4 |
2.3 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
7,726 |
7,681 |
45 |
.6 |
55-520000 |
Finance and insurance |
5,812 |
5,762 |
50 |
.9 |
55-521000 |
Monetary authorities - central bank |
17 |
19 |
-2 |
-11.8 |
55-522000 |
Credit intermediation and related activities |
2,570 |
2,585 |
-15 |
-.6 |
55-522100 |
Depository credit intermediation |
1,742 |
1,752 |
-10 |
-.6 |
55-522110 |
Commercial banking |
1,325 |
1,325 |
0 |
(1) |
55-523000 |
Securities, commodity contracts, investments |
812 |
800 |
12 |
1.5 |
55-524000 |
Insurance carriers and related activities |
2,327 |
2,274 |
53 |
2.3 |
55-525000 |
Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles |
87 |
85 |
2 |
2.3 |
55-530000 |
Real estate and rental and leasing |
1,914 |
1,918 |
-4 |
-.2 |
55-531000 |
Real estate |
1,392 |
1,395 |
-3 |
-.2 |
55-532000 |
Rental and leasing services |
497 |
500 |
-3 |
-.6 |
55-533000 |
Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets |
24 |
24 |
0 |
(1) |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
17,601 |
17,599 |
2 |
(1) |
60-540000 |
Professional and technical services |
7,883 |
7,964 |
-81 |
-1.0 |
60-541100 |
Legal services |
1,113 |
1,111 |
2 |
.2 |
60-541200 |
Accounting and bookkeeping services |
1,022 |
1,092 |
-70 |
-6.8 |
60-541300 |
Architectural and engineering services |
1,298 |
1,299 |
-1 |
-.1 |
60-541500 |
Computer systems design and related services |
1,588 |
1,569 |
19 |
1.2 |
60-541600 |
Management and technical consulting services |
1,094 |
1,110 |
-16 |
-1.5 |
60-550000 |
Management of companies and enterprises |
1,994 |
1,934 |
60 |
3.0 |
60-560000 |
Administrative and waste services |
7,725 |
7,701 |
24 |
.3 |
60-561000 |
Administrative and support services |
7,362 |
7,338 |
24 |
.3 |
60-561300 |
Employment services |
2,999 |
3,031 |
-32 |
-1.1 |
60-561320 |
Temporary help services |
2,374 |
2,384 |
-10 |
-.4 |
60-561400 |
Business support services |
823 |
816 |
7 |
.9 |
60-561700 |
Services to buildings and dwellings |
1,711 |
1,674 |
37 |
2.2 |
60-562000 |
Waste management and remediation services |
363 |
363 |
0 |
(1) |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
20,377 |
20,379 |
-2 |
(1) |
65-610000 |
Educational services |
3,504 |
3,476 |
28 |
.8 |
65-620000 |
Health care and social assistance |
16,873 |
16,903 |
-30 |
-.2 |
65-621000 |
Ambulatory health care services |
6,244 |
6,275 |
-31 |
-.5 |
65-621100 |
Offices of physicians |
2,369 |
2,406 |
-37 |
-1.6 |
65-621400 |
Outpatient care centers |
640 |
650 |
-10 |
-1.6 |
65-621600 |
Home health care services |
1,173 |
1,170 |
3 |
.3 |
65-622000 |
Hospitals |
4,773 |
4,803 |
-30 |
-.6 |
65-623000 |
Nursing and residential care facilities |
3,179 |
3,183 |
-4 |
-.1 |
65-623100 |
Nursing care facilities |
1,664 |
1,660 |
4 |
.2 |
65-624000 |
Social assistance |
2,677 |
2,644 |
33 |
1.2 |
65-624400 |
Child day care services |
873 |
856 |
17 |
1.9 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
13,334 |
13,230 |
104 |
.8 |
70-710000 |
Arts, entertainment, and recreation |
1,828 |
1,798 |
30 |
1.6 |
70-711000 |
Performing arts and spectator sports |
388 |
388 |
0 |
(1) |
70-712000 |
Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions |
129 |
128 |
1 |
.8 |
70-713000 |
Amusements, gambling, and recreation |
1,311 |
1,282 |
29 |
2.2 |
70-720000 |
Accommodation and food services |
11,506 |
11,432 |
74 |
.6 |
70-721000 |
Accommodation |
1,751 |
1,741 |
10 |
.6 |
70-722000 |
Food services and drinking places |
9,755 |
9,691 |
64 |
.7 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
5,394 |
5,335 |
59 |
1.1 |
80-811000 |
Repair and maintenance |
1,184 |
1,156 |
28 |
2.4 |
80-812000 |
Personal and laundry services |
1,299 |
1,287 |
12 |
.9 |
80-813000 |
Membership associations and organizations |
2,911 |
2,891 |
20 |
.7 |
90-000000 |
Government |
22,348 |
22,405 |
-57 |
-.3 |
90-910000 |
Federal |
2,815 |
2,811 |
4 |
.1 |
90-911000 |
Federal, except U.S. Postal Service |
2,201 |
2,198 |
3 |
.1 |
90-919120 |
U.S. Postal Service |
614 |
614 |
0 |
(1) |
90-920000 |
State government |
5,199 |
5,212 |
-13 |
-.3 |
90-921611 |
State government education |
2,532 |
2,563 |
-31 |
-1.2 |
90-922000 |
State government, excluding education |
2,667 |
2,649 |
18 |
.7 |
90-930000 |
Local government |
14,334 |
14,382 |
-48 |
-.3 |
90-931611 |
Local government education |
8,165 |
8,231 |
-66 |
-.8 |
90-932000 |
Local government, excluding education |
6,169 |
6,151 |
18 |
.3 |
(1)Less than 0.05 percent.
To Table of Figures
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Revisions in the post-benchmark period
Post-benchmark period estimates from April 2012 to December 2012 were calculated for each month based on new benchmark levels and new net birth/death factors. Net birth/death factors were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 3 shows the net birth/death model figures for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2012 to December 2012, the cumulative net birth/death model added 755,000, compared with 721,000 in the previously published April to December estimates.
Table 3. Net birth/death estimates by industry supersector, April – December 2012 (in thousands)(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Cumulative Total |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
28 |
37 |
23 |
3 |
8 |
5 |
1 |
-16 |
-22 |
67 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
-4 |
5 |
3 |
-5 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
2 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
12 |
23 |
7 |
0 |
16 |
13 |
27 |
1 |
5 |
104 |
50-000000 |
Information |
2 |
5 |
1 |
-1 |
3 |
-1 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
15 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
3 |
7 |
2 |
-2 |
3 |
0 |
14 |
0 |
10 |
37 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
61 |
28 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
-7 |
60 |
-4 |
0 |
185 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
22 |
15 |
-11 |
9 |
15 |
16 |
47 |
3 |
0 |
116 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
72 |
76 |
79 |
45 |
18 |
-40 |
-40 |
-21 |
6 |
195 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
9 |
7 |
4 |
-2 |
2 |
-1 |
3 |
-1 |
1 |
22 |
Monthly amount contributed |
206 |
205 |
122 |
66 |
89 |
-14 |
118 |
-36 |
-1 |
755 |
(1)Formerly Text Table A.
To Table of Figures
Table 4 presents revised Total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2012. The revised data for April 2012 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark level, as well as updated net birth/death model adjustments and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of the annual CES sample update.
Table 4. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, Total nonfarm employment, January – December 2012 (in thousands)(1)
2012 |
Levels |
Over-the-month changes |
As previously published |
As revised |
Difference |
As previously published |
As revised |
Difference |
January |
132,461 |
132,809 |
348 |
275 |
311 |
36 |
February |
132,720 |
133,080 |
360 |
259 |
271 |
12 |
March |
132,863 |
133,285 |
422 |
143 |
205 |
62 |
April |
132,931 |
133,397 |
466 |
68 |
112 |
44 |
May |
133,018 |
133,522 |
504 |
87 |
125 |
38 |
June |
133,063 |
133,609 |
546 |
45 |
87 |
42 |
July |
133,244 |
133,762 |
518 |
181 |
153 |
-28 |
August |
133,436 |
133,927 |
491 |
192 |
165 |
-27 |
September |
133,568 |
134,065 |
497 |
132 |
138 |
6 |
October |
133,705 |
134,225 |
520 |
137 |
160 |
23 |
November |
133,866 |
134,472 |
606 |
161 |
247 |
86 |
December(p) |
134,021 |
134,668 |
647 |
155 |
196 |
41 |
(1)Formerly Table 3.
(p)Preliminary
To Table of Figures
Back to Top
Changes to the CES published series
With the release of the January 2013 estimates, CES incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy review, reconstructed the history of a series, and began publishing previously available but not published seasonally adjusted series.
Series changes
All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following series changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for NAICS industries.
Some series have new CES industry codes or titles as a result of the series changes (Exhibit 1). These CES industry code or title changes have been applied to all data types published for the designated series. Historical data for these series with new CES industry codes or CES industry titles will not be impacted; historical data will be available under the new CES industry codes or CES industry titles.
Exhibit 1. Series with CES Industry Code or Title Changes
NAICS Code |
Previous |
New |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
339 |
3133900000 |
Miscellaneous manufacturing |
3133900000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
3399 |
3133990000 |
Other miscellaneous manufacturing |
3133990000 |
Other miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
33999 |
3133999000 |
All other miscellaneous manufacturing |
3133999000 |
All other miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
3121 |
3231210000 |
Beverages |
3232910000 |
Beverages |
31211 |
3231211000 |
Soft drinks and ice |
3232911000 |
Soft drinks and ice |
312111 |
3231211100 |
Soft drinks |
3232911100 |
Soft drinks |
31212,3,4 |
3231214000 |
Breweries, wineries, and distilleries |
3232914000 |
Breweries, wineries, and distilleries |
3122 |
3231220000 |
Tobacco and tobacco products |
3232920000 |
Tobacco and tobacco products |
316 |
3231600000 |
Leather and allied products |
3232930000 |
Leather and allied products |
To Table of Figures
The remaining series changes exhibits (Exhibit 2 through Exhibit 7) reference the new CES industry codes and titles, not the previous CES industry codes and titles, as noted in Exhibit 1.
Only directly estimated data types(1) are included in the series changes exhibits: all employees (AE), AE average weekly hours (AE AWH), AE average hourly earnings (AE AHE), AE average weekly overtime hours (AE AWOH), production employees (PE), women employees (WE), PE average weekly hours (PE AWH), PE average hourly earnings (PE AHE), and PE average weekly overtime hours (PE AWOH). The directly estimated data types listed except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types. In order to more easily identify affected series, since AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes exhibits are provided split by AE and non-AE data types. The non-AE tables cover all directly estimated non-AE data types.
The first group of series changes exhibits contains three exhibits referencing the AE data type and the second group contains three exhibits referencing all non-AE data types. The three exhibits in each group display the discontinued, collapsed, and new series. Discontinued series exhibits (Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 5) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. Collapsed series exhibits (Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 6) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published because the industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. New series exhibits (Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 7) display series for which the data types noted are now published.
AE exhibits
Exhibit 2. Discontinued AE Series
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Next Highest Published Industry |
312 |
32-312000 |
Beverages and tobacco products |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing (32-329000) |
To Table of Figures
Exhibit 3. Collapsed AE Series
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Collapsed into CES Industry |
221111 |
44-221111 |
Hydroelectric power generation |
Collapsed into Nuclear and other electric power generation (44-221118) |
3366* |
90-913366 |
Federal ship building and repairing |
Collapsed into Other Federal government (90-919999) |
*Contains only federally-owned portion of NAICS code.
To Table of Figures
Exhibit 4. New AE Series
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
312,6 |
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
To Table of Figures
Non-AE exhibits
The data types within the non-AE classification that are impacted by the series change are noted in each of the tables.
Exhibit 5. Discontinued Non-AE Series
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Discontinued From Publication |
Next Highest Published Industry* |
21232 |
10-212320 |
Sand, gravel, clay, and refractory mining |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying (10-212300) for data types AE AWH, AE AHE; Mining, except oil and gas (10-212000) for data types PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
212321 |
10-212321 |
Construction sand and gravel mining |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying (10-212300) for data types AE AWH, AE AHE; Mining, except oil and gas (10-212000) for data types PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
21239 |
10-212390 |
Other nonmetallic mineral mining |
AE AWH, AE AHE |
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying (10-212300) |
236116 |
20-236116 |
New multifamily general contractors |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Residential building (20-236100) |
236117 |
20-236117 |
New housing operative builders |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Residential building (20-236100) |
321211,2 |
31-321212 |
Hardwood and softwood veneer and plywood |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Plywood and engineered wood products (31-321200) |
321213,4,9 |
31-321214 |
All other plywood and engineered wood products |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Plywood and engineered wood products (31-321200) |
3271 |
31-327100 |
Clay products and refractories |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Nonmetallic mineral products (31-327000) |
3274,9 |
31-327900 |
Lime, gypsum, and other nonmetallic mineral products |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Nonmetallic mineral products (31-327000) |
3311 |
31-331100 |
Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy production |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH |
Primary metals (31-331000) |
3313 |
31-331300 |
Alumina and aluminum production |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Primary metals (31-331000) |
33151 |
31-331510 |
Ferrous metal foundries |
PE AWOH |
Foundries (31-331500) |
33152 |
31-331520 |
Nonferrous metal foundries |
PE AWOH |
Foundries (31-331500) |
3322 |
31-332200 |
Cutlery and hand tools |
AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Fabricated metal products (31-332000) |
332321 |
31-332321 |
Metal windows and doors |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Ornamental and architectural metal products (31-332320) |
332323 |
31-332323 |
Ornamental and architectural metal work |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Ornamental and architectural metal products (31-332320) |
3325 |
31-332500 |
Hardware |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Fabricated metal products (31-332000) |
3326 |
31-332600 |
Spring and wire products |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Fabricated metal products (31-332000) |
332721 |
31-332721 |
Precision turned products |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH |
Turned products and screws, nuts, and bolts (31-332720) |
332722 |
31-332722 |
Bolts, nuts, screws, rivets, and washers |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH |
Turned products and screws, nuts, and bolts (31-332720) |
333511 |
31-333511 |
Industrial molds |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Metalworking machinery (31-333500) |
333515,9 |
31-333519 |
Miscellaneous metalworking machinery |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Metalworking machinery (31-333500) |
33391 |
31-333910 |
Pumps and compressors |
AE AWOH |
Other general purpose machinery (31-333900) |
33399 |
31-333990 |
All other general purpose machinery |
AE AWOH |
Other general purpose machinery (31-333900) |
3341 |
31-334100 |
Computer and peripheral equipment |
AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Computer and electronic products (31-334000) |
3342 |
31-334200 |
Communications equipment |
PE AWOH |
Computer and electronic products (31-334000) |
33422 |
31-334220 |
Broadcast and wireless communications equipment |
AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Communications equipment (31-334200) for data types AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE; Computer and electronic products (31-334000) for data type PE AWOH |
3343 |
31-334300 |
Audio and video equipment |
AE AWH, AE AHE, WE |
Computer and electronic products (31-334000) |
334513 |
31-334513 |
Industrial process variable instruments |
AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Electronic instruments (31-334500) |
334515 |
31-334515 |
Electricity and signal testing instruments |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Electronic instruments (31-334500) |
3346 |
31-334600 |
Magnetic media manufacturing and reproduction |
AE AWH, AE AHE, WE |
Computer and electronic products (31-334000) |
336211 |
31-336211 |
Motor vehicle bodies |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Motor vehicle bodies and trailers (31-336200) |
33631 |
31-336310 |
Motor vehicle gasoline engine and parts |
AE AWOH |
Motor vehicle parts (31-336300) |
33632 |
31-336320 |
Motor vehicle electric equipment |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Motor vehicle parts (31-336300) |
3366 |
31-336600 |
Ship and boat building |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH |
Transportation equipment (31-336000) |
3365,9 |
31-336900 |
Railroad rolling stock and other transportation equipment |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH |
Transportation equipment (31-336000) |
337121 |
31-337121 |
Upholstered household furniture |
PE AWOH |
Other household and institutional furniture (31-337120) |
337124,5,7 |
31-337127 |
Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture |
PE AWOH |
Other household and institutional furniture (31-337120) |
3372 |
31-337200 |
Office furniture and fixtures |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Furniture and related products (31-337000) |
337215 |
31-337215 |
Showcases, partitions, shelving, and lockers |
PE AWOH |
Furniture and related products (31-337000) |
3379 |
31-337900 |
Other furniture-related products |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Furniture and related products (31-337000) |
3112 |
32-311200 |
Grain and oilseed milling |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Food manufacturing (32-311000) |
311411 |
32-311411 |
Frozen fruits and vegetables |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Frozen food (32-311410) |
311412 |
32-311412 |
Frozen specialty food |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Frozen food (32-311410) |
311611 |
32-311611 |
Animal, except poultry, slaughtering |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Animal slaughtering and processing (32-311600) |
311612,3 |
32-311613 |
Meat processed from carcasses, and rendering and meat byproduct processing |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Animal slaughtering and processing (32-311600) |
31181 |
32-311810 |
Bread and bakery products |
AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800) |
311811 |
32-311811 |
Retail bakeries |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800) |
311812,3 |
32-311813 |
Commercial bakeries and frozen cakes and other pastry products |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800) |
31182,3 |
32-311830 |
Cookies, crackers, pasta, and tortillas |
AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800) |
3119 |
32-311900 |
Other food products |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Food manufacturing (32-311000) |
312 |
32-312000 |
Beverages and tobacco products |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing (32-329000) |
3131 |
32-313100 |
Fiber, yarn, and thread mills |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Textile mills (32-313000) |
3132 |
32-313200 |
Fabric mills |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Textile mills (32-313000) |
31321 |
32-313210 |
Broadwoven fabric mills |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Fabric mills (32-313200) for data types AE AWH, AE AHE, WE; Textile mills (32-313000) for data types PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
3133 |
32-313300 |
Textile and fabric finishing mills |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Textile mills (32-313000) |
3141 |
32-314100 |
Textile furnishings mills |
PE AWOH |
Textile product mills (32-314000) |
3149 |
32-314900 |
Other textile product mills |
PE AWOH |
Textile product mills (32-314000) |
31491 |
32-314910 |
Textile bag and canvas mills |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Other textile product mills (32-314900) for data types AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE; Textile product mills (32-314000) for data type PE AWOH |
31499 |
32-314990 |
All other textile product mills |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Other textile product mills (32-314900) for data types AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE; Textile product mills (32-314000) for data type PE AWOH |
3152 |
32-315200 |
Cut and sew apparel |
AE AWOH |
Apparel (32-315000) |
3151,9 |
32-315900 |
All other apparel manufacturing |
AE AWOH |
Apparel (32-315000) |
323110 |
32-323110 |
Printing |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Printing and related support activities (32-323000) |
323113 |
32-323113 |
Commercial screen printing |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Printing and related support activities (32-323000) |
323111,7 |
32-323117 |
Commercial printing, except screen |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Printing and related support activities (32-323000) |
32312 |
32-323120 |
Support activities for printing |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Printing and related support activities (32-323000) |
32411 |
32-324110 |
Petroleum refineries |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH |
Petroleum and coal products (32-324000) |
32412,9 |
32-324190 |
Asphalt paving and roofing materials and other petroleum and coal products |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH |
Petroleum and coal products (32-324000) |
325211 |
32-325211 |
Plastics material and resin |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers (32-325200) |
3253 |
32-325300 |
Agricultural chemicals |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, WE |
Chemicals (32-325000) |
3255 |
32-325500 |
Paints, coatings, and adhesives |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Chemicals (32-325000) |
326113 |
32-326113 |
Nonpackaging plastics film and sheet |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Plastics packaging materials, film, and sheet (32-326110) |
32612 |
32-326120 |
Plastics pipe, fittings, and profile shapes |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Plastics products (32-326100) |
32613,6 |
32-326160 |
Plastics bottles and laminated plastics plate, sheet, and shapes |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH |
Plastics products (32-326100) |
31212,3,4 |
32-329140 |
Breweries, wineries, and distilleries |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing (32-329000) |
316 |
32-329300 |
Leather and allied products |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing (32-329000) |
42385 |
41-423850 |
Service establishment equipment |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Machinery and supplies (41-423800) |
42386 |
41-423860 |
Other transportation goods |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Machinery and supplies (41-423800) |
42411,2 |
41-424120 |
Printing and writing paper and office supplies |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Paper and paper products (41-424100) |
42413 |
41-424130 |
Industrial paper |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Paper and paper products (41-424100) |
42451 |
41-424510 |
Grains and field beans |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Farm product raw materials (41-424500) |
44121 |
42-441210 |
Recreational vehicle dealers |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Other motor vehicle dealers (42-441200) |
44122 |
42-441220 |
Motorcycle, boat, and other vehicle dealers |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Other motor vehicle dealers (42-441200) |
44421 |
42-444210 |
Outdoor power equipment stores |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores (42-444200) |
44422 |
42-444220 |
Nursery, garden, and farm supply stores |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores (42-444200) |
45431 |
42-454310 |
Fuel dealers |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Direct selling establishments (42-454300) |
45439 |
42-454390 |
Other direct selling establishments |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Direct selling establishments (42-454300) |
483 |
43-483000 |
Water transportation |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Transportation and warehousing (43-000000) |
487 |
43-487000 |
Scenic and sightseeing transportation |
AE AWH, AE AHE |
Transportation and warehousing (43-000000) |
48841 |
43-488410 |
Motor vehicle towing |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Support activities for road transportation (43-488400) |
49312 |
43-493120 |
Refrigerated warehousing and storage |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Warehousing and storage (43-493000) |
49313,9 |
43-493190 |
Miscellaneous warehousing and storage |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Warehousing and storage (43-493000) |
51113 |
50-511130 |
Book publishers |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Newspaper, book, and directory publishers (50-511100) |
52231 |
55-522310 |
Mortgage and nonmortgage loan brokers |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Activities related to credit intermediation (55-522300) |
52239 |
55-522390 |
Other credit intermediation activities |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Activities related to credit intermediation (55-522300) |
524113 |
55-524113 |
Direct life insurance carriers |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Direct life and health insurance carriers (55-524110) |
524114 |
55-524114 |
Direct health and medical insurance carriers |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Direct life and health insurance carriers (55-524110) |
524126 |
55-524126 |
Direct property and casualty insurers |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Direct insurers, except life and health (55-524120) |
524127,8 |
55-524128 |
Direct title insurance and other direct insurance carriers |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Direct insurers, except life and health (55-524120) |
524291 |
55-524291 |
Claims adjusting |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Other insurance-related activities (55-524290) |
524298 |
55-524298 |
All other insurance-related activities |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Other insurance-related activities (55-524290) |
53113 |
55-531130 |
Miniwarehouse and self-storage unit operators |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Lessors of real estate (55-531100) |
53119 |
55-531190 |
Lessors of other real estate property |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Lessors of real estate (55-531100) |
53132 |
55-531320 |
Offices of real estate appraisers |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Activities related to real estate (55-531300) |
53139 |
55-531390 |
Other activities related to real estate |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Activities related to real estate (55-531300) |
5321 |
55-532100 |
Automotive equipment rental and leasing |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Rental and leasing services (55-532000) |
5322 |
55-532200 |
Consumer goods rental |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Rental and leasing services (55-532000) |
53223 |
55-532230 |
Video tape and disc rental |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Consumer goods rental (55-532200) for data types AE AWH, AE AHE, WE; Rental and leasing services (55-532000) for data types PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
53221,2,9 |
55-532290 |
Miscellaneous consumer goods rental |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Consumer goods rental (55-532200) for data types AE AWH, AE AHE, WE; Rental and leasing services (55-532000) for data types PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
541213 |
60-541213 |
Tax preparation services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Accounting and bookkeeping services (60-541200) |
541219 |
60-541219 |
Other accounting services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Accounting and bookkeeping services (60-541200) |
541612 |
60-541612 |
Human resource consulting services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Management consulting services (60-541610) |
541618 |
60-541618 |
Other management consulting services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Management consulting services (60-541610) |
54162 |
60-541620 |
Environmental consulting services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Management and technical consulting services (60-541600) |
54169 |
60-541690 |
Other technical consulting services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Management and technical consulting services (60-541600) |
56291 |
60-562910 |
Remediation services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Remediation and other waste services (60-562900) |
56292,9 |
60-562990 |
Materials recovery facilities and other waste management services |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
Remediation and other waste services (60-562900) |
6222 |
65-622200 |
Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Hospitals (65-622000) |
6223 |
65-622300 |
Other hospitals |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Hospitals (65-622000) |
62421 |
65-624210 |
Community food services |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Emergency and other relief services (65-624200) |
62422,3 |
65-624230 |
Community housing, emergency, and relief services |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Emergency and other relief services (65-624200) |
721211 |
70-721211 |
RV parks and campgrounds |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
RV parks and recreational camps (70-721200) |
721214 |
70-721214 |
Recreational and vacation camps |
AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE |
RV parks and recreational camps (70-721200) |
812111,2 |
80-812112 |
Barber shops and beauty salons |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Hair, nail, and skin care services (80-812110) |
812113 |
80-812113 |
Nail salons |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Hair, nail, and skin care services (80-812110) |
81221 |
80-812210 |
Funeral homes and funeral services |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Death care services (80-812200) |
81222 |
80-812220 |
Cemeteries and crematories |
PE, PE AWH, PE AHE |
Death care services (80-812200) |
To Table of Figures
Exhibit 6. Collapsed Non-AE Series
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Collapsed into CES Industry |
Data Types Collapsed |
3366* |
90-913366 |
Federal ship building and repairing |
Collapsed into Other Federal government (90-919999) |
WE |
*Contains only federally-owned portion of NAICS code.
To Table of Figures
Exhibit 7. New Non-AE Series
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Data Types Published |
312,6 |
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH, WE |
To Table of Figures
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Reconstructed data
In order to provide a continuous and comparable employment time series, CES decided to reconstruct the history for one CES series, 55-524126 Direct property and casualty insurers, impacted by the changes to noncovered employment incorporated with the 2011 benchmark (see www.bls.gov/ces/cesbmart11.pdf). CES determined that the history of this series did not capture a significant amount of noncovered employment and instead showed a level shift in the series from April 2010 to March 2011, where the noncovered employment, calculated from County Business Patterns (CBP) data, was first included. CES uses CBP data to calculate the majority of noncovered employment. The CBP — which draws from Social Security filings and other records which do include those employees not covered by UI tax laws — is lagged in its publication by approximately two years (e.g. in 2012 the 2010 CBP data was published). For more information about calculating noncovered employment, see www.bls.gov/ces/cestn.htm#NCE.
CBP data was used to reconstruct AE data for CES series 55-524126 back to 1991 in order to incorporate the noncovered employment in the history. From the reconstructed AE data, the remaining published data types were produced using the previously published sample ratios.
This reconstruction also resulted in revisions back to 1991 for the associated aggregate series, including but not limited to Total nonfarm, in the associated data types.
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Seasonally adjusted data publication change
CES began publishing more seasonally adjusted data with the release of January 2013 estimates on February 1, 2013. These data were previously available only by request, but are now available on the public website at www.bls.gov/ces/data.htm. This change in publication status does not impact the seasonally adjusted series published for a given month with the first preliminary release of CES data(2). The newly published seasonally adjusted series will be released with the second preliminary estimates for a given month. Approximately 770 more seasonally adjusted AE series and approximately 4,060 more seasonally adjusted non-AE and derivative series will be published(3).
Seasonally adjusted data for detail series corresponding to CES series 31-336000 Transportation equipment have been updated to reflect strike data from 1998 and were revised back to 1990. These detail series had previously been available upon request, but not published. Seasonally adjusted data for CES series 31-336000 Transportation equipment has also been revised back to 1990. All associated aggregate series, including but not limited to Total nonfarm, and associated data types have also been revised.
Specification files and related information necessary for duplicating the seasonal adjustment process has been updated and, for these newly published series, added to the existing documentation available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesseasadj.htm.
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Data clarification
CES currently publishes data for both AE and PE aggregate weekly hours, aggregate weekly payrolls, and in manufacturing industries, aggregate weekly overtime hours. These data are produced using two separate sets of sample data. Data are used in the calculation for the AE aggregate hours and earnings series if the establishment has reported both hours and payroll information for all employees for the given month. Data are used in the calculation for the PE aggregate hours and earnings series if the establishment has reported both hours and payroll information for production and nonsupervisory employees for the given month. Since not all establishments report hours and payroll data for both all employees and production and nonsupervisory employees, the data used in the two calculations can vary.
Given that the aggregate hours and earnings series may be calculated from two separate sets of sample data, it is possible for the aggregate hours and earnings series for production and nonsupervisory employees to be greater than that of all employees even though by definition this is impossible. The possibility arises because each of the samples is subject to its own nonsampling error. When this occurs, CES does not cap the production and nonsupervisory employees aggregate hours and earnings data to fit the definitional restriction to be less than the all employees aggregate data because each of the estimates separately is supported by their respective samples.
CES will be conducting research to examine potential solutions to this issue.
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Why benchmarks differ from estimates
A benchmark revision is the difference between the benchmark employment level for a given March and its corresponding sample-based estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of this difference. The benchmark revision often is regarded as a proxy for total survey error, but this does not take into account error in the universe data. The employment counts obtained from quarterly UI tax forms are administrative data that reflect employer record-keeping practices and differing State laws and procedures. The benchmark revision can be more precisely interpreted as the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.
Like all sample surveys, the establishment survey is susceptible to two sources of error: sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is present any time a sample is used to make inferences about a population. The magnitude of the sampling error, or variance, relates directly to sample size and the percentage of the universe covered by that sample. The CES monthly survey captures slightly under one-third of the universe, exceptionally high by usual sampling standards. This coverage ensures a small sampling error at the Total nonfarm employment level.
Both the universe counts and the establishment survey estimates are subject to nonsampling errors common to all surveys — coverage, response, and processing errors. The error structures for both the CES monthly survey and the UI universe are complex. Still, the two programs generally produce consistent total employment figures, each validating the other. Over the last decade, annual benchmark revisions at the Total nonfarm level have averaged 0.3 percent (in absolute terms), with an absolute range of 0.1 percent to 0.7 percent.
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Benchmark revision effects for other data types
The routine benchmarking process results in revisions to the series for production and nonsupervisory employees and women employees. There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to all employee employment prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee figures. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, and in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level.
The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. The all employee employment estimates or the production and nonsupervisory employee employment estimates for the basic cells are used as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of the all employee estimates to new benchmarks may alter the weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.
Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group. Table 5 and Table 6 provide information on the levels of specific hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2012 benchmark. At the Total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for both AE and PE from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 1 cent for AE and 2 cents for PE from the previously published level.
Table 5. Effect of March 2012 benchmark revisions to AE AWH and AE AHE estimates, selected industries(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Average Weekly Hours |
Average Hourly Earnings |
As Previously Published |
As Revised |
Difference |
As Previously Published |
As Revised |
Difference |
05-000000 |
Total private |
34.3 |
34.3 |
0.0 |
$23.41 |
$23.42 |
$0.01 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
40.0 |
40.0 |
.0 |
24.69 |
24.67 |
-.02 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
33.1 |
33.1 |
.0 |
23.11 |
23.13 |
.02 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
43.5 |
43.5 |
.0 |
29.06 |
28.98 |
-.08 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
38.1 |
38.2 |
.1 |
25.72 |
25.72 |
.00 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
40.6 |
40.6 |
.0 |
23.94 |
23.91 |
-.03 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
41.0 |
41.0 |
.0 |
25.32 |
25.28 |
-.04 |
31-321000 |
Wood products |
39.6 |
39.5 |
-.1 |
17.33 |
17.34 |
.01 |
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
41.0 |
41.0 |
.0 |
20.92 |
20.92 |
.00 |
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
43.7 |
43.7 |
.0 |
23.46 |
23.37 |
-.09 |
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
40.9 |
40.9 |
.0 |
21.29 |
21.28 |
-.01 |
31-333000 |
Machinery |
41.6 |
41.6 |
.0 |
25.45 |
25.47 |
.02 |
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
39.7 |
39.7 |
.0 |
33.52 |
33.52 |
.00 |
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
40.8 |
40.8 |
.0 |
23.68 |
23.68 |
.00 |
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
42.9 |
42.9 |
.0 |
28.82 |
28.73 |
-.09 |
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
42.9 |
42.9 |
.0 |
23.94 |
23.81 |
-.13 |
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
39.5 |
39.5 |
.0 |
18.67 |
18.67 |
.00 |
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
38.3 |
38.3 |
.0 |
23.58 |
23.56 |
-.02 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
39.9 |
39.9 |
.0 |
21.56 |
21.54 |
-.02 |
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
39.2 |
39.3 |
.1 |
17.88 |
17.89 |
.01 |
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
40.5 |
40.5 |
.0 |
17.22 |
17.22 |
.00 |
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
39.1 |
39.1 |
.0 |
16.22 |
16.24 |
.02 |
32-315000 |
Apparel |
37.1 |
37.1 |
.0 |
17.71 |
17.73 |
.02 |
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
41.4 |
41.5 |
.1 |
23.97 |
24.02 |
.05 |
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
37.2 |
37.2 |
.0 |
21.41 |
21.41 |
.00 |
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
45.1 |
45.1 |
.0 |
34.44 |
34.58 |
.14 |
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
41.8 |
41.8 |
.0 |
27.76 |
27.76 |
.00 |
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
40.8 |
40.8 |
.0 |
20.05 |
20.05 |
.00 |
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
36.0 |
36.0 |
.0 |
22.12 |
22.12 |
.00 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
34.4 |
34.4 |
.0 |
20.28 |
20.29 |
.01 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
38.4 |
38.4 |
.0 |
26.48 |
26.50 |
.02 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
31.5 |
31.5 |
.0 |
16.11 |
16.11 |
.00 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
37.9 |
38.0 |
.1 |
21.92 |
21.95 |
.03 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
41.1 |
41.1 |
.0 |
33.80 |
33.81 |
.01 |
50-000000 |
Information |
36.3 |
36.3 |
.0 |
31.59 |
31.61 |
.02 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
37.0 |
37.0 |
.0 |
28.78 |
28.84 |
.06 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
35.6 |
35.6 |
.0 |
28.03 |
28.03 |
.00 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
32.7 |
32.7 |
.0 |
24.13 |
24.16 |
.03 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
26.0 |
26.0 |
.0 |
13.39 |
13.40 |
.01 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
31.4 |
31.5 |
.1 |
20.67 |
20.82 |
.15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1)Formerly Table 4a.
To Table of Figures
Table 6. Effect of March 2012 benchmark revisions to PE AWH and PE AHE estimates, selected industries(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Average Weekly Hours |
Average Hourly Earnings |
As Previously Published |
As Revised |
Difference |
As Previously Published |
As Revised |
Difference |
05-000000 |
Total private |
33.5 |
33.5 |
0.0 |
$19.67 |
$19.69 |
$0.02 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
40.9 |
40.9 |
.0 |
20.80 |
20.81 |
.01 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
32.3 |
32.3 |
.0 |
19.44 |
19.45 |
.01 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
46.7 |
46.8 |
.1 |
26.05 |
26.02 |
-.03 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
38.8 |
38.8 |
.0 |
23.82 |
23.82 |
.00 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
41.5 |
41.5 |
.0 |
19.04 |
19.02 |
-.02 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
42.0 |
42.0 |
.0 |
20.14 |
20.12 |
-.02 |
31-321000 |
Wood products |
40.6 |
40.6 |
.0 |
14.82 |
14.82 |
.00 |
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
41.5 |
41.5 |
.0 |
17.89 |
17.88 |
-.01 |
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
44.2 |
44.1 |
-.1 |
20.12 |
20.06 |
-.06 |
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
42.2 |
42.2 |
.0 |
18.17 |
18.17 |
.00 |
31-333000 |
Machinery |
43.2 |
43.2 |
.0 |
19.95 |
19.96 |
.01 |
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
40.4 |
40.4 |
.0 |
23.40 |
23.40 |
.00 |
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
41.4 |
41.4 |
.0 |
17.94 |
17.94 |
.00 |
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
43.6 |
43.6 |
.0 |
24.83 |
24.77 |
-.06 |
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
44.0 |
44.0 |
.0 |
21.49 |
21.39 |
-.10 |
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
40.2 |
40.2 |
.0 |
15.32 |
15.32 |
.00 |
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
38.8 |
38.8 |
.0 |
16.98 |
16.97 |
-.01 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
40.7 |
40.7 |
.0 |
17.24 |
17.22 |
-.02 |
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
40.0 |
40.0 |
.0 |
14.87 |
14.87 |
.00 |
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
43.2 |
43.2 |
.0 |
13.43 |
13.43 |
.00 |
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
40.4 |
40.3 |
-.1 |
12.50 |
12.51 |
.01 |
32-315000 |
Apparel |
37.2 |
37.2 |
.0 |
12.67 |
12.66 |
-.01 |
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
42.5 |
42.5 |
.0 |
20.30 |
20.37 |
.07 |
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
38.1 |
38.1 |
.0 |
17.28 |
17.28 |
.00 |
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
46.6 |
46.6 |
.0 |
31.30 |
31.44 |
.14 |
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
42.1 |
42.1 |
.0 |
21.55 |
21.55 |
.00 |
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
41.7 |
41.7 |
.0 |
16.02 |
16.03 |
.01 |
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
38.4 |
38.4 |
.0 |
18.27 |
18.27 |
.00 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
33.5 |
33.5 |
.0 |
17.34 |
17.35 |
.01 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
38.3 |
38.3 |
.0 |
21.98 |
21.99 |
.01 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
30.4 |
30.4 |
.0 |
13.80 |
13.80 |
.00 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
37.2 |
37.3 |
.1 |
19.54 |
19.56 |
.02 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
40.2 |
40.2 |
.0 |
31.16 |
31.17 |
.01 |
50-000000 |
Information |
35.7 |
35.7 |
.0 |
26.72 |
26.74 |
.02 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
36.3 |
36.3 |
.0 |
22.48 |
22.53 |
.05 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
34.9 |
34.9 |
.0 |
23.26 |
23.25 |
-.01 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
32.2 |
32.2 |
.0 |
20.98 |
21.01 |
.03 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
24.9 |
24.9 |
.0 |
11.62 |
11.63 |
.01 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
30.5 |
30.6 |
.1 |
17.45 |
17.60 |
.15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1)Formerly Table 4b.
To Table of Figures
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Methods
Benchmark adjustment procedure
Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by UI. The time required to complete the revision process — from the full collection of the UI population data to publication of the revised industry estimates — is about ten months. The benchmark adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based employment estimates with UI-based population counts for March. The benchmark therefore determines the final employment levels, while sample movements capture month-to-month trends.
Benchmarks are established for each basic estimating cell and are aggregated to develop published levels. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the sample-based estimates for the year preceding and the nine months following the benchmark also are then subject to revision. Employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a "wedge-back" procedure. In this process, the difference between the benchmark level and the previously published March estimate for each estimating cell is computed. This difference, or error, is linearly distributed across the 11 months of estimates subsequent to the previous benchmark; eleven-twelfths of the March difference is added to February estimates, ten-twelfths to January estimates, and so on, ending with the previous April estimates, which receive one-twelfth of the March difference. The wedge procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. Applying previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level yields revised estimates for the nine months following the March benchmark (also referred to as the post-benchmark period, see Revisions in the post-benchmark period). New net birth/death model estimates also are calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. The annual sample update is introduced in the November final sample-based estimates, which are released along with the January first preliminary sample-based estimates that coincide with the Benchmark release. The new sample is used for all subsequent estimates.
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Benchmark source material
The principal source of benchmark data for private industries is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Noncovered employment results from a difference in scope between the CES program and the QCEW program. The QCEW only includes employment data provided to State Employment Security Agencies by employers covered by State UI laws. BLS uses several other sources to establish benchmarks for the industries partially covered or exempt from mandatory UI coverage, accounting for nearly 3 percent of the nonfarm employment total.
Data on employees covered under Social Security laws, published by the U.S. Census Bureau in County Business Patterns, are used to augment UI data for industries not fully covered by the UI scope, such as Non-office insurance sales workers, child daycare workers, Religious organizations, and Private schools and hospitals. Noncovered employment for State and Local government hospitals and Educational institutions is based on the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll (ASPEP) conducted by the Census Bureau. Noncovered employment data from these sources are available only on a lagged basis. Extrapolation to a current level is accomplished by applying the employment trends from the UI-covered part of the population in these industries to the noncovered part. Universe data for interstate railroads are obtained from the Railroad Retirement Board. More information on calculating noncovered employment in the CES program is available in the CES Technical Notes at www.bls.gov/ces/cestn.htm#NCE.
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Business birth and death estimation
Regular updating of the CES sample frame with information from the UI universe files helps to keep the CES survey current with respect to employment from business births and business deaths. The timeliest UI universe files available, however, always will be a minimum of nine months out of date. The CES survey thus cannot rely on regular frame maintenance alone to provide estimates for business birth and death employment contributions. BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring birth units that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. Since the research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, the Bureau is utilizing a model-based approach for this component.
Earlier research indicated that while both the business birth and death portions of total employment are generally significant, the net contribution is relatively small and stable. To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS is utilizing an estimation procedure with two components. The first component excludes employment losses from business deaths from sample-based estimation in order to offset the missing employment gains from business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based link relative estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample. The second component is an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation. The historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model was derived from the UI universe micro level database, and reflects the actual net of births and deaths over the past five years. The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and include negative adjustments in some months. Furthermore, these figures exhibit a seasonal pattern similar to the seasonal patterns of the continuing businesses.
Only error from the second component is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths from March 2011-12 — once it becomes available — with the model-based estimate. As Table 7 shows, the actual net birth/death for April 2011 to March 2012 was approximately 426,000 above the forecasted amount used in the CES monthly estimates for the time period.
Table 7. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth/death, Total private employment, April 2011 – March 2012 (in thousands)(1)
Benchmark 2012 |
2011 |
2012 |
Total |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Actual Net Birth/Death |
272 |
204 |
116 |
157 |
93 |
27 |
122 |
-23 |
3 |
-284 |
115 |
115 |
917 |
Forecast Net Birth/Death |
172 |
211 |
141 |
5 |
89 |
-26 |
116 |
-30 |
-1 |
-367 |
91 |
90 |
491 |
Difference |
100 |
-7 |
-25 |
152 |
4 |
53 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
83 |
24 |
25 |
426 |
Cumulative Difference |
100 |
93 |
68 |
220 |
224 |
277 |
283 |
290 |
294 |
377 |
401 |
426 |
|
(1)Formerly Exhibit 6.
To Table of Figures
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Availability of revised data
LABSTAT, the BLS public database on the Internet, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed at www.bls.gov/ces/, the CES homepage.
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Small domain model
The CES Small Domain Model (SDM) is used for industries where the sample alone is insufficient for reliable estimates. The CES SDM is a Weighted Least Squares model with two employment inputs: (1) an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, and (2) an ARIMA projection based on 10 years of historical QCEW data. Further background on the SDM is provided in the CES technical notes at www.bls.gov/ces/cestn.htm#section5b.
There are six industries estimated using the SDM. These industries are Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets, Direct health and medical insurance carriers, Tax preparation services, Other technical consulting services, Remediation services, and Recreational and vacation camps.
Estimates for all other data types for these six series previously used the standard weighted link-and-taper methodology, which does not account for insufficient sample. Since item response rates tend to be lower for data types other than AE, BLS discontinued production of all non-AE series where the SDM was used for AE with the 2012 benchmark release in February 2013.
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Seasonal adjustment procedure
BLS uses X-12 ARIMA software developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to seasonally adjust National employment, hours, and earnings series derived from the CES program. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using either a multiplicative or an additive model (Table 8 through Table 16).
For published AE series, the CES program seasonally adjusts many series at the 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-digit NAICS level. However, only the seasonally adjusted 3-digit NAICS level estimates are used to aggregate to the higher levels. The seasonally adjusted series that are published at more detailed levels than the 3-digit NAICS are considered to be independent series and are not included in aggregation of seasonally adjusted series(4) with the exception of the component series used in indirect seasonal adjustment(5).
For published AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, and PE AHE series, the CES program seasonally adjusts at the 2 digit NAICS level, or the major industry sector level for all industries except Manufacturing which is seasonally adjusted at the 3-digit NAICS level. These seasonally adjusted series are aggregated from the 3-digit NAICS level in Manufacturing industries and from the major industry sector level for all other industries to get higher level seasonally adjusted series.
For published PE and AE overtime series, the CES program seasonally adjusts major industry sectors Durable goods and Nondurable goods. These two seasonally adjusted overtime series are aggregated to the Manufacturing level.
For published WE series, the CES program seasonally adjusts at the major industry sector level for all industries. The seasonally adjusted WE are aggregated from the major industry sector level for all industries to the higher level seasonally adjusted series.
Special model adjustments
Variable survey intervals. Beginning with the release of the 1995 benchmark, BLS refined the seasonal adjustment procedures to control for survey interval variations, sometimes referred to as the 4- versus 5-week effect. Although the CES survey is referenced to a consistent concept — the pay period including the 12th of each month — inconsistencies arise because there are sometimes four and sometimes five weeks between the week including the 12th in a given pair of months. In highly seasonal industries, these variations can be an important determinant of the magnitude of seasonal hires or layoffs that have occurred at the time the survey is taken, thereby complicating seasonal adjustment.
Standard seasonal adjustment methodology relies heavily on the experience of the most recent three years to determine the expected seasonal change in employment for each month of the current year. Prior to the implementation of the adjustment, the procedure did not distinguish between 4- and 5-week survey intervals, and the accuracy of the seasonal expectation depended in large measure on how well the current year's survey interval corresponded with those of the previous three years. All else the same, the greatest potential for distortion occurred when the current month being estimated had a 5-week interval but the three years preceding it were all 4-week intervals, or conversely when the current month had a 4-week interval but the three years preceding it were all 5-week intervals.
BLS adopted REGARIMA (regression with auto-correlated errors) modeling to identify the estimated size and significance of the calendar effect for each published series. REGARIMA combines standard regression analysis, which measures correlation among two or more variables, with ARIMA modeling, which describes and predicts the behavior of data series based on its own past history. For many economic time series, including nonfarm payroll employment, observations are auto-correlated over time; that is, each month's value is significantly dependent on the observations that precede it. These series, therefore, usually can be successfully fit using ARIMA models. If auto-correlated time series are modeled through regression analysis alone, the measured relationships among other variables of interest may be distorted due to the influence of the auto-correlation. Thus, the REGARIMA technique is appropriate for measuring relationships among variables of interest in series that exhibit auto-correlation, such as nonfarm payroll employment.
In this application, the correlations of interest are those between employment levels in individual calendar months and the lengths of the survey intervals for those months. The REGARIMA models evaluate the variation in employment levels attributable to eleven separate survey interval variables, one specified for each month, except March. March is excluded because there are almost always four weeks between the February and March surveys. Models for individual basic series are fit with the most recent ten years of data available, the standard time span used for CES seasonal adjustment.
The REGARIMA procedure yields regression coefficients for each of the eleven months specified in the model. These coefficients provide estimates of the strength of the relationship between employment levels and the number of weeks between surveys for the eleven modeled months. The X-12 ARIMA software also produces diagnostic statistics that permit the assessment of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients, and all series are reviewed for model adequacy.
Because the eleven coefficients derived from the REGARIMA models provide an estimate of the magnitude of variation in employment levels associated with the length of the survey interval, these coefficients are used to adjust the CES data to remove the calendar effect. These "filtered" series then are seasonally adjusted using the standard X-12 ARIMA software.
For a few series, REGARIMA models do not fit well; these series are seasonally adjusted with the X-12 software but without the interval effect adjustment. There are several additional special effects modeled through the REGARIMA process; they are described below.
Construction series. Beginning with the 1996 benchmark revision, BLS utilized special treatment to adjust construction industry series. In the application of the interval effect modeling process to the construction series, there initially was difficulty in accurately identifying and measuring the effect because of the strong influence of variable weather patterns on employment movements in the industry. Further research allowed BLS to incorporate interval effect modeling for the construction industry by disaggregating the construction series into its finer industry and geographic estimating cells and tightening outlier designation parameters. This allowed a more precise identification of weather-related outliers that had masked the interval effect and clouded the seasonal adjustment patterns in general. With these outliers removed, interval effect modeling became feasible. The result is a seasonally adjusted series for construction that is improved because it is controlled for two potential distortions: unusual weather events and the 4- versus 5-week effect.
Floating holidays. BLS is continuing the practice of making special adjustments for average weekly hours and average weekly overtime series to account for the presence or absence of religious holidays in the April survey reference period and the occurrence of Labor Day in the September reference period, back to the start date of each series.
Local government series. A special adjustment also is made in November each year to account for variations in employment due to the presence or absence of poll workers in Local government, excluding educational services.
Refinements in hours and earnings seasonal adjustment. With the release of the 1997 benchmark, BLS implemented refinements to the seasonal adjustment process for the hours and earnings series to correct for distortions related to the method of accounting for the varying length of payroll periods across months. There is a significant correlation between over-the-month changes in both the average weekly hours (AWH) and the average hourly earnings (AHE) series and the number of weekdays in a month, resulting in noneconomic fluctuations in these two series. Both AWH and AHE show more growth in "short" months (20 or 21 weekdays) than in "long" months (22 or 23 weekdays). The effect is stronger for the AWH than for the AHE series.
The calendar effect is traceable to response and processing errors associated with converting payroll and hours information from sample respondents with semi-monthly or monthly pay periods to a weekly equivalent. The response error comes from sample respondents reporting a fixed number of total hours for workers regardless of the length of the reference month, while the CES conversion process assumes that the hours reporting will be variable. A constant level of hours reporting most likely occurs when employees are salaried rather than paid by the hour, as employers are less likely to keep actual detailed hours records for such employees. This causes artificial peaks in the AWH series in shorter months that are reversed in longer months.
The processing error occurs when respondents with salaried workers report hours correctly (vary them according to the length of the month), which dictates that different conversion factors be applied to payroll and hours. The CES processing system uses the hours conversion factor for both fields, resulting in peaks in the AHE series in short months and reversals in long months.
REGARIMA modeling is used to identify, measure, and remove the length-of-pay-period effect for seasonally adjusted average weekly hours and average hourly earnings series. The length-of-pay-period variable proves significant for explaining AWH movements in all the service-providing industries except Utilities. For AHE, the length-of-pay-period variable is significant for Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Information, Financial activities, Professional and business services, and Other services. All AWH series in the service-providing industries except Utilities have been adjusted from January 1990 forward. The AHE series for Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Information, Financial activities, Professional and business services, and Other services have been adjusted from January 1990 forward as well. For this reason, calculations of over-the-year change in the establishment hours and earnings series should use seasonally adjusted data.
The series to which the length-of-pay-period adjustment is applied are not subject to the 4- versus 5-week adjustment, as the modeling cannot support the number of variables that would be required in the regression equation to make both adjustments.
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Special notice regarding seasonal adjustment for AE hours and earnings
Concurrent with the release of January 2010 data, the CES program began publishing AE hours and earnings as official BLS series. The AE hours and earnings series are published at the same level of industry detail as PE hours and earnings series and are published on both a not seasonally adjusted and a seasonally adjusted basis.
CES has at least five full years of history for the AE hours and earnings series, which allows for incorporating the special model adjustments for variation due to the calendar effects (4- vs. 5-week and 10- vs. 11-day). Also, generally CES uses 10 years of not seasonally adjusted data as an input to seasonal adjustment. This year, CES will replace the entire 82 months of seasonally adjusted AE hours and earnings data, ensuring all data is adjusted using the same methodology.
Seasonal adjustment model specifications
Table 8. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of AE series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
Other Adj(2) |
10-113300 |
Logging |
MULT |
X |
|
10-211000 |
Oil and gas extraction |
MULT |
X |
|
10-212000 |
Mining, except oil and gas |
- |
X |
Indirect |
10-212100 |
Coal mining |
MULT |
X |
|
10-213000 |
Support activities for mining |
MULT |
X |
|
20-236100 |
Residential building |
- |
X |
Indirect |
20-236200 |
Nonresidential building |
- |
X |
Indirect |
20-237000 |
Heavy and civil engineering construction |
ADD |
X |
|
20-238000 |
Specialty trade contractors |
- |
X |
Indirect |
20-238001 |
Residential specialty trade contractors |
MULT |
X |
Raked |
20-238002 |
Nonresidential specialty trade contractors |
ADD |
X |
Raked |
31-321000 |
Wood products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
ADD |
X |
|
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-333000 |
Machinery |
MULT |
X |
|
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
- |
X |
Indirect |
31-334100 |
Computer and peripheral equipment |
MULT |
X |
|
31-334200 |
Communications equipment |
MULT |
X |
|
31-334400 |
Semiconductors and electronic components |
MULT |
X |
|
31-334500 |
Electronic instruments |
MULT |
X |
|
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
MULT |
X |
|
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
ADD |
|
|
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
ADD |
|
|
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-315000 |
Apparel |
MULT |
X |
|
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
MULT |
X |
|
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
MULT |
X |
|
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
MULT |
X |
|
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
ADD |
X |
|
41-423000 |
Durable goods |
MULT |
X |
|
41-424000 |
Nondurable goods |
MULT |
X |
|
41-425000 |
Electronic markets and agents and brokers |
ADD |
X |
|
42-441000 |
Motor vehicle and parts dealers |
- |
X |
Indirect |
42-441100 |
Automobile dealers |
ADD |
X |
|
42-442000 |
Furniture and home furnishings stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-443000 |
Electronics and appliance stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-444000 |
Building material and garden supply stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-445000 |
Food and beverage stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-446000 |
Health and personal care stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-447000 |
Gasoline stations |
MULT |
X |
|
42-448000 |
Clothing and clothing accessories stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-451000 |
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-452000 |
General merchandise stores |
- |
X |
Indirect |
42-452100 |
Department stores |
MULT |
X |
|
42-453000 |
Miscellaneous store retailers |
MULT |
X |
|
42-454000 |
Nonstore retailers |
MULT |
X |
|
43-481000 |
Air transportation |
MULT |
X |
|
43-482000 |
Rail transportation |
MULT |
X |
|
43-483000 |
Water transportation |
ADD |
X |
|
43-484000 |
Truck transportation |
ADD |
X |
|
43-485000 |
Transit and ground passenger transportation |
ADD |
|
|
43-486000 |
Pipeline transportation |
MULT |
X |
|
43-487000 |
Scenic and sightseeing transportation |
ADD |
X |
|
43-488000 |
Support activities for transportation |
MULT |
X |
|
43-492000 |
Couriers and messengers |
MULT |
X |
|
43-493000 |
Warehousing and storage |
ADD |
X |
|
44-220000 |
Utilities |
MULT |
X |
|
50-511000 |
Publishing industries, except Internet |
MULT |
X |
|
50-512000 |
Motion picture and sound recording industries |
MULT |
X |
|
50-515000 |
Broadcasting, except Internet |
MULT |
X |
|
50-517000 |
Telecommunications |
MULT |
X |
|
50-518000 |
Data processing, hosting and related services |
MULT |
X |
|
50-519000 |
Other information services |
MULT |
X |
|
55-521000 |
Monetary authorities - central bank |
MULT |
X |
|
55-522000 |
Credit intermediation and related activities |
- |
X |
Indirect |
55-522100 |
Depository credit intermediation |
MULT |
X |
|
55-522110 |
Commercial banking |
MULT |
X |
|
55-523000 |
Securities, commodity contracts, investments |
MULT |
X |
|
55-524000 |
Insurance carriers and related activities |
MULT |
X |
|
55-525000 |
Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles |
ADD |
X |
|
55-531000 |
Real estate |
MULT |
X |
|
55-532000 |
Rental and leasing services |
MULT |
X |
|
55-533000 |
Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets |
MULT |
X |
|
60-540000 |
Professional and technical services |
- |
X |
Indirect |
60-541100 |
Legal services |
MULT |
X |
|
60-541200 |
Accounting and bookkeeping services |
ADD |
X |
|
60-541300 |
Architectural and engineering services |
MULT |
X |
|
60-541500 |
Computer systems design and related services |
ADD |
X |
|
60-541600 |
Management and technical consulting services |
MULT |
X |
|
60-550000 |
Management of companies and enterprises |
MULT |
X |
|
60-561000 |
Administrative and support services |
- |
X |
Indirect |
60-561300 |
Employment services |
ADD |
X |
|
60-561320 |
Temporary help services |
ADD |
X |
|
60-561400 |
Business support services |
ADD |
X |
|
60-561700 |
Services to buildings and dwellings |
ADD |
X |
|
60-562000 |
Waste management and remediation services |
ADD |
X |
|
65-610000 |
Educational services |
ADD |
X |
|
65-621000 |
Ambulatory health care services |
- |
X |
Indirect |
65-621100 |
Offices of physicians |
MULT |
X |
|
65-621400 |
Outpatient care centers |
MULT |
X |
|
65-621600 |
Home health care services |
ADD |
X |
|
65-622000 |
Hospitals |
ADD |
X |
|
65-623000 |
Nursing and residential care facilities |
- |
X |
Indirect |
65-623100 |
Nursing care facilities |
MULT |
X |
|
65-624000 |
Social assistance |
- |
X |
Indirect |
65-624400 |
Child day care services |
MULT |
X |
|
70-711000 |
Performing arts and spectator sports |
MULT |
X |
|
70-712000 |
Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions |
MULT |
X |
|
70-713000 |
Amusements, gambling, and recreation |
ADD |
X |
|
70-721000 |
Accommodation |
ADD |
X |
|
70-722000 |
Food services and drinking places |
ADD |
X |
|
80-811000 |
Repair and maintenance |
MULT |
X |
|
80-812000 |
Personal and laundry services |
MULT |
X |
|
80-813000 |
Membership associations and organizations |
MULT |
|
|
90-911000 |
Federal, except U.S. Postal Service |
ADD |
X |
|
90-919120 |
U.S. Postal Service |
MULT |
X |
|
90-921611 |
State government education |
ADD |
X |
|
90-922000 |
State government, excluding education |
MULT |
X |
|
90-931611 |
Local government education |
ADD |
X |
|
90-932000 |
Local government, excluding education |
MULT |
X |
Election adjustment |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
(2)Indirect indicates seasonal adjustment occurs at the lowest available industry level. Raked indicates residential and nonresidential specialty trade estimates are raked to the specialty trade estimates to ensure consistency. Election adjustment indicates a special adjustment for the presence/absence of poll workers in local government.
To Table of Figures
Table 9. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of AE AWH series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
10/11 Day Adj |
Easter/Labor Day Adj |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
20-000000 |
Construction |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-321000 |
Wood products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-333000 |
Machinery |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-315000 |
Apparel |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
MULT |
X |
|
|
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
MULT |
|
X |
|
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
MULT |
X |
|
|
50-000000 |
Information |
MULT |
|
X |
|
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
MULT |
|
X |
|
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
MULT |
|
X |
|
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
MULT |
|
X |
|
80-000000 |
Other services |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
To Table of Figures
Table 10. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of AE AHE series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
10/11 Day Adj |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
ADD |
X |
|
20-000000 |
Construction |
ADD |
X |
|
31-321000 |
Wood products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
ADD |
X |
|
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-333000 |
Machinery |
ADD |
X |
|
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
ADD |
X |
|
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
MULT |
X |
|
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
MULT |
X |
|
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
ADD |
X |
|
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
ADD |
X |
|
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-315000 |
Apparel |
MULT |
X |
|
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
MULT |
X |
|
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
MULT |
X |
|
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
ADD |
X |
|
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
ADD |
|
X |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
MULT |
|
X |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
ADD |
|
X |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
ADD |
X |
|
50-000000 |
Information |
MULT |
|
X |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
ADD |
|
X |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
ADD |
|
X |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
ADD |
X |
|
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
ADD |
X |
|
80-000000 |
Other services |
ADD |
|
X |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
To Table of Figures
Table 11. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of AE AWOH series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
10/11 Day Adj |
Easter/Labor Day Adj |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
To Table of Figures
Table 12. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of PE series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
Other Adj |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
ADD |
X |
|
20-000000 |
Construction |
ADD |
X |
|
31-321000 |
Wood products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
ADD |
X |
|
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-333000 |
Machinery |
MULT |
X |
|
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
MULT |
X |
|
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
MULT |
|
|
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
ADD |
|
|
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-315000 |
Apparel |
MULT |
X |
|
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
MULT |
X |
|
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
MULT |
X |
|
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
MULT |
X |
|
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
MULT |
X |
|
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
MULT |
X |
|
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
ADD |
X |
|
44-220000 |
Utilities |
MULT |
X |
|
50-000000 |
Information |
ADD |
X |
|
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
MULT |
X |
|
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
MULT |
X |
|
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
ADD |
X |
|
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
ADD |
X |
|
80-000000 |
Other services |
MULT |
X |
|
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
To Table of Figures
Table 13. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of PE AWH series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
10/11 Day Adj |
Easter/Labor Day Adj |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
20-000000 |
Construction |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-321000 |
Wood products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-333000 |
Machinery |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-315000 |
Apparel |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
MULT |
X |
|
|
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
X |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
MULT |
|
X |
|
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
MULT |
X |
|
|
50-000000 |
Information |
MULT |
|
X |
|
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
MULT |
|
X |
|
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
MULT |
|
X |
|
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
MULT |
|
X |
|
80-000000 |
Other services |
MULT |
|
X |
X |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
To Table of Figures
Table 14. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of PE AHE series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
10/11 Day Adj |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
MULT |
X |
|
20-000000 |
Construction |
MULT |
X |
|
31-321000 |
Wood products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-327000 |
Nonmetallic mineral products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-331000 |
Primary metals |
MULT |
X |
|
31-332000 |
Fabricated metal products |
ADD |
X |
|
31-333000 |
Machinery |
MULT |
X |
|
31-334000 |
Computer and electronic products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-335000 |
Electrical equipment and appliances |
MULT |
X |
|
31-336000 |
Transportation equipment |
ADD |
X |
|
31-336001 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
MULT |
X |
|
31-337000 |
Furniture and related products |
MULT |
X |
|
31-339000 |
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing |
ADD |
X |
|
32-311000 |
Food manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
32-313000 |
Textile mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-314000 |
Textile product mills |
MULT |
X |
|
32-315000 |
Apparel |
MULT |
X |
|
32-322000 |
Paper and paper products |
MULT |
X |
|
32-323000 |
Printing and related support activities |
MULT |
X |
|
32-324000 |
Petroleum and coal products |
ADD |
X |
|
32-325000 |
Chemicals |
MULT |
X |
|
32-326000 |
Plastics and rubber products |
MULT |
X |
|
32-329000 |
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing |
MULT |
X |
|
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
MULT |
|
X |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
MULT |
|
X |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
MULT |
|
X |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
MULT |
X |
|
50-000000 |
Information |
MULT |
|
X |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
MULT |
|
X |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
MULT |
|
X |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
ADD |
X |
|
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
ADD |
X |
|
80-000000 |
Other services |
ADD |
|
X |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
To Table of Figures
Table 15. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of PE AWOH series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
10/11 Day Adj |
Easter/Labor Day Adj |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
ADD |
X |
|
X |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
To Table of Figures
Table 16. Model specifications for seasonal adjustment of WE series(1)
CES Industry Code |
CES Industry Title |
Mode |
4/5 Week Adj |
Other Adj(2) |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
MULT |
X |
|
20-000000 |
Construction |
MULT |
X |
|
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
MULT |
X |
|
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
MULT |
X |
|
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
MULT |
X |
|
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
MULT |
X |
|
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
ADD |
X |
|
44-220000 |
Utilities |
MULT |
X |
|
50-000000 |
Information |
MULT |
X |
|
55-520000 |
Finance and insurance |
MULT |
X |
|
55-530000 |
Real estate and rental and leasing |
MULT |
X |
|
60-540000 |
Professional and technical services |
ADD |
X |
|
60-550000 |
Management of companies and enterprises |
MULT |
X |
|
60-560000 |
Administrative and waste services |
ADD |
X |
|
65-610000 |
Educational services |
ADD |
X |
|
65-620000 |
Health care and social assistance |
MULT |
X |
|
70-710000 |
Arts, entertainment, and recreation |
MULT |
X |
|
70-720000 |
Accommodation and food services |
ADD |
X |
|
80-000000 |
Other services |
MULT |
X |
|
90-910000 |
Federal |
ADD |
X |
|
90-920000 |
State government |
ADD |
X |
|
90-930000 |
Local government |
ADD |
X |
Election adjustment |
(1)Formerly part of Exhibit 14.
(2)Election adjustment indicates a special adjustment for the presence/absence of poll workers in local government.
To Table of Figures
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End Notes
(1)CES estimates data in two ways: directly and indirectly. Directly estimated data types refer to data types for which estimates are calculated directly from the responding sample. Indirectly estimated data types refer to data types for which estimates are calculated from other directly estimated data types. Average weekly earnings of all employees and indexes of aggregate weekly hours of all employees are examples of indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see the CES Technical Notes.
(2)Publication status for first preliminary seasonally adjusted series may also be impacted by the CES series changes noted in Exhibit 1 through Exhibit 7 above.
(3)Counts of additional series are approximate due to how some of the CES industry code changes, noted in Exhibit 1, impact the additional seasonally adjusted published series.
(4)For example, seasonally adjusted data at the 5-digit NAICS are not aggregated to form seasonally adjusted 4-digit NAICS series. Instead the 4-digit NAICS and the 5-digit NAICS level series are independently seasonally adjusted.
(5)Most series are seasonally adjusted by directly applying the seasonal adjustment factors to the series. In some cases, 3-digit NAICS series are indirectly seasonally adjusted by aggregating the seasonally adjusted employment level of their component series. For indirectly seasonally adjusted 3-digit NAICS series, the seasonal adjustment factors are applied to the component series rather than to the 3-digit NAICS series. Indirectly seasonally adjusted series are noted in Table 8.
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Table of figures
For a list of changes to table titles, see www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnewseries.htm#tabtitles.
Tables
Exhibits
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Last Modified Date: February 1, 2013
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