Scenario Planning Workshops

Acadia Scenario Planning Workshop Summary

The Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop Summary [5.3 MB PDF] summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park in October 2015. The primary objective of the workshop was to help Acadia senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios.

The "focal question" for this workshop was stated as follows: How should ACAD plan and prepare for climate change and related effects, especially with respect to issues including:

Apostle Islands Scenario Planning Workshop Summary

The Apostle Islands Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop Summary [1.4 MB PDF] summarizes outcomes from a two‐day scenario workshop in April 2015 for Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, Wisconsin. The primary objective of the session was (i) to help senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up‐to‐date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The session was also designed (ii) to assess the effectiveness of using regional‐ level climate science to craft local scenarios. Finally, it provided an opportunity to (iii) introduce scenarios to participants and further their capabilities in scenario practice.

The Isle Royale climate change scenarios Workshop Report [6.0 MB PDF] summarizes the Isle Royale climate change scenario planning workshop, convened in January 2013 to examine how climate change may affect the park’s resources, with an emphasis on the island’s forests and wolf and moose populations.

Workshop participants developed four divergent scenarios for the period 2013-2050, based on the range of projected climate change. The ‘Least Change’ scenario was the minimum level of expected change, while the other three scenarios incorporated greater climate change and additional associated disturbance events. The ‘Summer Drought, Wind, and Fire’ scenario included punctuated dry summer periods and an increased probability of wind storms. The ‘Warmer than Duluth’ scenario had temperature increases from the high end of projections (+6.5 °F) while the ‘Isle Savanna’ scenario included warm temperatures (+5 °F) and increasingly frequent drought events (i.e., strong precipitation variability). These descriptive narratives present potential futures based on the range of climate projections and scientific understanding of species interactions and ecosystem responses to climate change. Participants then explored several options for resource management within each of the scenarios.