For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Thursday, December 3, 2020		       USDL-20-2183

Technical information:
 Employment:	  sminfo@bls.gov    *  www.bls.gov/sae
 Unemployment:	  lausinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/lau
	
Media contact:    (202) 691-5902    *  PressOffice@bls.gov


      METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -- OCTOBER 2020


Unemployment rates were higher in October than a year earlier in 384 of the
389 metropolitan areas and lower in 5 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. A total of 124 areas had jobless rates of less
than 5.0 percent and 16 areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent. Nonfarm
payroll employment decreased over the year in 234 metropolitan areas and
was essentially unchanged in 155 areas. The national unemployment rate in
October was 6.6 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.3 percent a
year earlier.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly programs. The civilian
labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and
definitions as those used for the national household survey estimates. These
data pertain to individuals by where they reside. The employment data are
from an establishment survey that measures nonfarm employment, hours, and
earnings by industry. These data pertain to jobs on payrolls defined by where
the establishments are located. For more information about the concepts and
statistical methodologies used by these two programs, see the Technical Note.

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI, had the highest unemployment rate in October,
22.5 percent, followed by El Centro, CA, 18.8 percent. Ames, IA, and 
Burlington-South Burlington, VT, had the lowest unemployment rates, 1.9
percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. A total of 275 areas had October 
jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 6.6 percent, 103 areas had rates above
it, and 11 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate increase in October occurred in
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI (+19.8 percentage points). Rates rose over the
year by at least 5.0 percentage points in an additional 14 areas. The
largest over-the-year rate decrease occurred in Yuma, AZ (-1.0 percentage
point).

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or
more, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, had the highest unemployment rate in
October, 13.8 percent. Salt Lake City, UT, had the lowest jobless rate among
the large areas, 4.1 percent. All 51 large areas had over-the-year unemployment
rate increases, the largest of which was in Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
(+10.0 percentage points). The smallest rate increase from a year earlier
occurred in St. Louis, MO-IL (+1.4 percentage points).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 38 metropolitan
divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In
October, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA, had the highest unemployment rate
among the divisions, 12.1 percent. Nashua, NH-MA, had the lowest division rate,
4.1 percent. (See table 2.)

In October, all 38 metropolitan divisions had over-the-year unemployment rate
increases, the largest of which was in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (+7.8
percentage points). The smallest rate increases occurred in Elgin, IL; Lake
County-Kenosha County, IL-WI; and Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI (+1.6
percentage points each).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In October, 234 metropolitan areas had over-the-year decreases in nonfarm payroll
employment and 155 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year
employment decreases occurred in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (-1,017,600),
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (-520,000), and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin,
IL-IN-WI (-343,300). The largest over-the-year percentage losses in employment
occurred in Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI (-27.3 percent), Lake Charles, LA (-17.8
percent), and Flagstaff, AZ (-16.6 percent). (See table 3.)

Over the year, nonfarm employment declined in all of the 51 metropolitan areas
with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more. The largest over-the-year 
percentage decreases in employment in these large metropolitan areas occurred in
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (-10.5 percent), New York-Newark-Jersey City,
NY-NJ-PA (-10.1 percent), and Rochester, NY, and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 
(-9.8 percent each).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In October, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in all of the 38 metropolitan
divisions over the year. The largest over-the-year decrease in employment among
the metropolitan divisions occurred in New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ
(-774,400), followed by Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (-379,100), and
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL (-275,700). (See table 4.)

The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (-10.6 percent), Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley,
CA (-10.5 percent), and Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (-10.2 percent). 

_____________
The State Employment and Unemployment news release for November is scheduled to
be released on Friday, December 18, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. (ET). The Metropolitan
Area Employment and Unemployment news release for November is scheduled to be
released on Tuesday, January 5, 2021, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).


 ______________________________________________________________________________________
|										       |
|              Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on October 2020		       |
|                     Establishment and Household Survey Data			       |
|										       |
| BLS has continued to review all estimation and methodological procedures for the     |
| establishment survey, which included the review of data, estimation processes,       |
| the application of the birth-death model, and seasonal adjustment. Business	       |
| births and deaths cannot be adequately captured by the establishment survey as       |
| they occur. Therefore, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program uses a	       |
| model to account for the relatively stable net employment change generated by	       |
| business births and deaths. Due to the impact of COVID-19, the relationship 	       |
| between business births and deaths is no longer stable. Typically, reports with      |
| zero employment are not included in estimation. For the September final and	       |
| October preliminary estimates, CES included a portion of these reports in the	       |
| estimates and made modifications to the birth-death model. In addition for both      |
| months, the establishment survey included a portion of the reports that returned     |
| to reporting positive employment from reporting zero employment. For more	       |
| information, see www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm.				       |
|										       |
| In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any   |
| part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed,      |
| even if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or	       |
| permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as	       |
| employed, even if they are continuing to receive benefits. The length of the	       |
| reference period does vary across the respondents in the establishment survey;       |
| one-third of businesses have a weekly pay period, slightly over 40 percent a bi-     |
| weekly, about 20 percent semi-monthly, and a small amount monthly.		       |
|										       |
| For the October 2020 estimates of household employment and unemployment from the     |
| Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program, BLS continued to implement	       |
| level-shift outliers in the employment and/or unemployment inputs to the state       |
| models, based on statistical evaluation of movements in each area's inputs. Both     |
| the Current Population Survey inputs, which serve as the primary inputs to the       |
| LAUS models, and the nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment insurance claims    |
| covariates were examined for outliers. The resulting implementation of level	       |
| shifts preserved movements in the published estimates that the models otherwise      |
| would have discounted, without requiring changes to how the models create	       |
| estimates at other points in the time series.					       |
|										       |
| The "Frequently asked questions" document at					       |
| www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-october-2020.htm extensively    |
| discusses the impact of a misclassification in the household survey on the national  |
| estimates for October 2020. Despite the considerable decline in its degree relative  |
| to prior months, this misclassification continued to be widespread geographically,   |
| with BLS analysis indicating that most states again were affected to at least some   |
| extent. However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey     |
| are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken    |
| to reclassify survey responses. Hence, the household survey estimates of employed    |
| and unemployed people that serve as the primary inputs to the state models were      |
| affected to varying degrees by the misclassification, which in turn affected the     |
| official LAUS estimates for October 2020. Similar misclassifications had occurred    |
| in the household survey from March through September (see 			       |
| www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-     |
| situation-news-release.htm#summaries).					       |
|										       |
| Household data for substate areas are controlled to the employment and unemployment  |
| totals for their respective model-based areas. Hence, the preliminary October and    |
| revised September estimates for substate areas reflect the use of level-shift	       |
| outliers, where implemented, in the inputs for their model-based control areas.      |
| The substate area estimates for both months also were impacted by misclassification  |
| in the household survey, in proportion to the impacts of the misclassifications on   |
| the data for their model-based control areas.					       |
|										       |
| Household data for Puerto Rico are not modeled, but rather are derived from a	       |
| monthly household survey similar to the Current Population Survey. The Puerto Rico   |
| Department of Labor has reported a misclassification in its household survey since   |
| May 2020 similar in nature to the misclassification in the Current Population	       |
| Survey, which has affected the local area data proportionally.		       |
|______________________________________________________________________________________|