The Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) analyzes the effects of the existing tax law and alternative tax programs and prepares a variety of background papers, position papers, policy memoranda, and analytical reports on economic aspects of domestic and international tax policy. OTA is responsible for official Administration estimates of all Federal receipts included in the President's Budget and Mid-Session Review, and revenue estimates for actual and proposed tax legislation, earmarked revenue allocated to various trust funds, Treasury cash management decisions, and the Tax Expenditure Budget. OTA develops and operates several major microsimulation models and maintains large statistical databases to analyze the economic, distributional, and revenue effects of alternative tax proposals and tax systems. Many of the large microdata files used in OTA's models are developed from samples of tax returns prepared by the IRS Statistics of Income Division under the Office's direction. Additional OTA staff publications as of September 2016.
Technical and Working Papers
The OTA Working Papers Series presents original research by the staff of the Office of Tax Analysis. The OTA Technical Papers Series presents documentation of the models, datasets, and methods developed by staff and used for policy analysis and estimates. The papers are intended to generate discussion and critical comment while informing and improving the quality of the analysis conducted by the Office. The papers are works in progress and subject to revision. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official Treasury positions or policy. Comments are welcome, as are suggestions for improvements, and should be directed to the authors. OTA Papers may be quoted without additional permission.
Distributional Analysis of the U.S. Tax System- Summary of Treasury’s Distribution Analysis (November 2015)
- Distribution of Income by Source
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Current Law
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Fully Phased-in Current Law
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Administration Policy
- Distribution of Tax Burden , Fully Phased-in Administration Policy
- Sources of Variation in Average Tax Rates (November 2015)
- Variation in Average Tax Rates at Selected Income Levels, Current Law
- Variation in Average Tax Rates at Selected Income Levels, Administration Policy
- Number and Share of Families Paying Taxes, Current Law
Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures
Selected Credits, Deductions, and Exclusions
Selected Retirement Savings
Average and Marginal Tax Rates
Key Family and Education Tax Policies and Proposals
Benefits by Returns, Earners and Filers
[excel] (March 2016)
Beneficiaries by State
[excel] (March 2016)
Health Tax Provisions and Analysis
Table 1, Types of Coverage, 2018
[excel] (December 2016)
Table 2, Employer-Sponsored Coverage, 2018
[excel] (December 2016)
Table 3, Premium Tax Credit, 2018
[excel] (December 2016)
Special Studies in Tax Analysis