11.9 Production Risk Reduction Strategies

There are several strategies that PMs can use to reduce transition to production risks. These include:

• Competitive Prototyping,
• Pilot Line Production,
• Low Rate Initial Production, and
• Full Rate Production .

Competitive prototyping occurs when industry teams develop competing prototypes of a required system.  Competitive prototyping is a decision-making strategy for reducing technical and economic risks while preserving the PM's freedom of action.  The goal of competitive prototyping is to mature the design before committing substantial resources to its factors of production.  Prototypes are usually handmade by design engineers and skilled technicians using general purpose machine tools.  Production engineers should be heavily involved in the design of the prototype to ensure that the product can be produced within the cost targets. Then as the design matures and testing validates the engineering approach, the production engineers should prepare for an orderly transition to production by refining their production plans (factory layout, machine tools, production skills, subcontractor relationships, etc.).  The Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) program is a good example of competitive prototyping.  Two contractor teams came up with designs and prototypes for a replacement to the F-15.  The Lockheed Martin team designed and produced the YF-22 while the Northrop team designed and produced the YF-23. The Air Force selected the YF-22 for further development and production. 

When a program moves into Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) the production environment often moves to one of a pilot line.  As the design is being matured and test articles are being produced, there is a continuing inflow of design change which must be fed into the fabrication facility. The goal is to develop affordable and executable manufacturing processes that are becoming increasingly more documented.  The manufacturing processes that were used during Technology Development may evolve to different processes and those processes should be matured on the pilot line.  For example, during TD you may have made a composite part using hand layup, but now in preparation for Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) you may be moving to an automated tape layup machine and are using the pilot line to proof the process.

At the completion of the development process, a review is normally held to determine if the system is ready to enter the production phase of the program. Approval to proceed into the production phase is based upon:

• Assurance that risks have been resolved, including the threat;
• Cost, schedule, and performance estimates/requirements for production phase are credible and acceptable; and
• Determination that: a practical engineering design has been completed, tradeoffs have optimized production, maintenance, and operating costs and contractual aspects are sound.

Evaluating the production readiness of a weapon system prior to a production decision point is an important element of the DOD weapon system acquisition process. Production readiness is assessed by means of a Production Readiness Review (PRR). The objective of a PRR is to verify that the production design, planning and associated preparations for a system have progressed to the point where a production commitment can be made without incurring unacceptable risks of breaching thresholds of schedule, performance, cost, or other established criteria. The Production Readiness Review is discussed in detail in Chapter 12 of this guide.

Low rate Initial production (LRIP) is a term used to describe the initial production effort needed to reduce the government's exposure on transitioning from development to Full Rate Production (FRP).  LRIP is intended to result in the completion of manufacturing development in order to ensure adequate and efficient manufacturing capability exists to produce the minimum quantity necessary to:

• Provide production or production-representative articles for Initial Operational Test and Evaluation (IOT&E);
• Establish an initial production base for the system; and
• Permit an orderly increase in the production rate for the system, sufficient to lead to full-rate production (FRP) upon successful completion of operational testing.

Low rate initial production usually begins at the end of the EMD phase and often transitions from a pilot line to an LRIP production capability.  By this time the new technologies should have been matured and ready to transition into the production units.  Detailed system design should be complete with few engineering changes, and none that impact form, fit or function.  All manufacturing processes should be capable and under statistical control, and there should be no producibility risks.  There needs to be a complete definition of the fabrication and assembly tasks and the transfer of those tasks to the general factory work force.  Work instructions need to be more detailed and a closely controlled system for changes to the documents used in the factory, such as drawings and process specifications.  Extensive documentation required for production planning must be based on a stable design, quantity requirements and delivery schedule. The amount and timing of engineering changes must be controlled to minimize disruption to production documentation and planned manufacturing schedules.

Contractors often need to make basic changes in the manufacturing planning and control systems reflecting a change from small lots of parts with relatively dynamic design, to economical lots with fixed design for quantity production. The measures of effectiveness of the manufacturing function also may change to reflect the efficiencies which would be expected in repetitive production and the balancing of work flow through the facility. The program manager should assure that the contractor has evaluated the planning and control systems used in the factory to determine the need for changes to reflect the difference in the fundamental objectives of development and production. Where change is required, an attainable plan for the system transition should be defined by the contractor.