Lake-effect snow occurs every winter downwind of the Great Lakes and several other large bodies of water, as long as the necessary conditions are met: cold air crossing over a relatively warmer lake surface, which picks up moisture to condense into clouds and dumps heavy snow downwind of the lakes. But as the Earth's climate changes, how much longer will these ingredients continue to come together?

The Great Lakes are known for their amazing lake-effect snowfall records, including a 10-day period from Feb. 3-12, 2007, when an incredible 141 inches of snow were measured in the town of Redfield, New York, about 50 miles northeast of Syracuse in the Tug Hill Plateau, east of Lake Ontario.

As a snow-lover, I went to college at SUNY Oswego in central New York on the southeast shore of Lake Ontario because of these epic snowfall totals for which that region is known. During the Blizzard of '66, 102 inches of snow were measured in Oswego in only 34 hours by legendary professor Dr. Bob Sykes, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

During my four years in SUNY Oswego's meteorology program, I saw my fair share of lake-effect snow, but certainly nothing anywhere near that magnitude. But this fascination begs the question: Are lake-effect snowstorms getting weaker as the Earth's climate changes?

(MORE: The Science Behind Lake-Effect Snow)

For the third year in a row, 2016 set a record-warm year for the globe, dating back to 1880. Three separate analyses came to this conclusion, and more importantly, the warming trend in global temperatures continues.

If our planet's temperatures are getting warmer, surely that must mean there will be less lake-effect snow in the future. If the air isn't cold, how are we going to get lake-effect snow to form?

Actually, it's the opposite, according to a recent study by NOAA's Tom Di Liberto. The study suggests there will actually be more lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes snowbelts, at least for a while.

Lake-effect snow is directly related to how warm and ice-free the lakes are, as well as the difference between the lake temperatures and the temperature of the air blowing over them.

Di Liberto said in a world of global warming, not only will lake temperatures increase, but the lakes will also remain ice-free for a longer duration.

"As long as there is enough cold air to blow over the lakes, it could mean an increase in lake-effect snows even in a world where temperatures are increasing, as counter-intuitive as that may sound," he said.

Once a lake freezes over, the moisture and heat source for lake-effect snow is lost, so it's basically shut off for the remainder of the winter season. But as long as we have cold air, warm water and ice-free lakes, we'll continue to get lake-effect snow each year.

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According to Di Liberto, we've likely seen changes in lake-effect snow already, but there is uncertainty in that statement because snowfall is measured by hand with a ruler, which leaves room for user error. If it's not measured properly, inaccurate numbers may be recorded.

Regardless, Di Liberto said recent research has suggested lake-effect snow totals along Lake Superior and Lake Michigan have increased from 1927 to 2007. Previous research found increases for the entire Great Lakes region between 1931 and 2001.

There is one hiccup in the hypothesis of a warmer climate leading to increased lake-effect snow, said Di Liberto: "The cold air that flows over the lakes will also be getting warmer over time, which would favor less lake-effect snow. It’s like an epic game of climate change tug-of-war."

According to a combination of climate models and lake models used in Vavrus et. al 2013 and Notaro et. al 2015, heavy lake-effect snowstorms will become more frequent around Lake Superior by 2050.

A study by Wright in 2013 used higher-resolution computer models to simulate lake effect with warmer lakes and less ice coverage, and the results showed increased snowfall downwind of all the Great Lakes and farther inland.

(MORE: Where Snow This Season Has Already Topped 200 Inches)

Therefore, Di Liberto concludes an increase in lake-effect snow is possible for a while, but eventually the snow will turn to rain as global temperatures continue to rise.

This is good news, at least for the next few decades, for any lake-effect snow fanatics, like me, who may also be fascinated by this study.

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