The first ever "Mariners Decision Makers Weather Workshop" is underway this week at NHC. More than a dozen key decision makers from the major maritime industries are participating in the four-day gathering to learn about, and provide feedback on, our various forecasting products and services. There will be several hands-on exercises, complete with inclement weather, to challenge the participants.
The annual NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) meeting took place this week at the NHC facility. HFIP was established in 2009 with an ambitious goal of improving hurricane forecasts by reducing the track and intensity forecast errors by 50 percent within 10 years. This 2-day meeting brought together more than 100 scientists mainly from government and academia. Half were on site and the other half joined in via conference call, discussing the accomplishments so far and establishing the goals for 2017.
The National Hurricane Center is saying farewell and happy retirement to Patricia "Trisha" Wallace. She's retiring after 40 years of federal service, 22 of those years here at NHC as an analyst in our Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch. We'll miss her laugh, her dedication and her friendship. Happy retirement!!
Here's a link to our "Q&A with NHC" interview with her in August 2011: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/qa_201108_patricia_wallace.shtml
Here are the preliminary track maps for all of the tropical cyclones that occurred over the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins in 2016. We're working on completing the Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCR) for each of these systems. Once an individual TCR is ready, it will be posted on our website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/
Here's the summary from NOAA regarding the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific 2016 hurricane season. All three regions saw above-normal seasons...http://www.noaa.gov/…/first-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane…
NOAA will issue its outlook for the 2017 hurricane season in late May. The season begins on June 1st.
The 2016 NOAA Hurricane Conference is underway at NHC this week. This annual forum includes presentations, discussions and recommendations to the NOAA Hurricane Program involving National Weather Service regional and field offices, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center and the Storm Prediction Center.
There are no disturbances on this Wednesday morning across the eastern North Pacific or Atlantic basins that have any potential for tropical cyclone development during the next five days.
Today is the last day of the official hurricane season. NOAA will issue a summary of the 2016 season later this morning.
On this Tuesday morning, there are no disturbances across the Atlantic basin or the eastern North Pacific basin that have any potential for tropical cyclone development during the next five days. The hurricane season officially ends tomorrow (November 30th).
Get the latest on the tropics anytime by visiting the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov
Tropical Storm Otto continues to weaken on this Saturday, centered over the eastern North Pacific Ocean about 460 miles (740 km) southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Given the prevailing strong shear and the current trend, additional weakening is forecast, and Otto is anticipated to become a trough or a remnant low in about 48 hours or sooner.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
Tropical Storm Otto continues its westward trek over the eastern Pacific Ocean. A general motion toward the west or west-southwest during the next day or two is expected. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening during the next 48 hours is forecast. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
Tropical Storm Otto is moving westward over the open eastern North Pacific waters today. On the forecast track, the center will continue to move away from Central America.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 48 hours. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Rainfall associated with Otto will diminish today over Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with additional amounts of up to 1 inch possible.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
Otto has weakened to a tropical storm over northwestern Costa Rica. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slow weakening during the next 48 hours is forecast. On the forecast track, the center of Otto should move across northwestern Costa Rica and into the eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next few hours, then move away from the Central American coast on Friday.
Since Otto has maintained itself as a tropical c...yclone all the way
across the land mass of Central America, based on National Weather Service and World Meteorological Organization protocols, it will retain the name Otto when it moves over the eastern Pacific
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Puntarenas, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of Otto. The primary threat from Otto will continue to be torrential rainfall, which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
Hurricane Otto is rapidly weakening over southern Nicaragua. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts - a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm in the next few hours with additional weakening anticipated after Otto moves over the Pacific Ocean.
A Hurricane Warning continues from Limon, Costa Rica to Bluefields, Nicaragua, and a Tropical Storm Warning continues f...rom north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from
Puntarenas, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of Otto.
On the forecast track, the center of Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica through this evening, and emerge off of the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica by early Friday.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring in the
warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by this evening. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through tonight. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Recent reports from amateur radio operators indicate that mudslides are occurring over portions of northern Costa Rica.
Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with total rainfall amounts of up to
10 inches over the higher terrain of far western Panama and southern Costa Rica through Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected tonight over San Andres and Providencia Islands.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
Hurricane Otto, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts, has made landfall on the coast of southern Nicaragua near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.9 West, just to the north of the town of San Juan de Nicaragua. Otto is the southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America on record. On the forecast track, the enter of Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica through this evening, and then is expected to re...ach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight or early Friday. Weakening should begin soon while the hurricane moves farther inland, and Otto is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. Additional weakening is anticipated thereafter.
A Hurricane Warning continues from Limon Costa, Rica to Bluefields, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch continues from north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua, and from south of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border. A Tropical Storm Warning continues from north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from Puntarenas, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of Otto.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by this evening.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
Otto is a dangerous hurricane approaching Nicaragua and Costa Rica. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of Otto around 8 a.m. EST this morning and indicated that the hurricane was intensifying. Maximum sustained winds near 110 mph (175 km/h) and higher gusts- a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Winds Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, and Otto is forecast to bec...ome a tropical storm by tonight.
A Hurricane Warning continues from Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch continues from north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua, and from south of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border. A Tropical Storm Warning continues from north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua and from Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of Otto.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area during the next several hours, while tropical storm conditions are likely to be occurring already. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua and in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by this evening.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane warning area. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with total rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches over the higher terrain of far western Panama and southern Costa Rica through Friday.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
Otto had regained hurricane strength, centered as of 10 p.m. EST about 100 miles (160 km) north-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica. Maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts - a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible before landfall, with weakening expected as the cyclone crosses southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Otto is expected to emerge into the Pacific as a tropical storm... between 24 and 36 hours.
A Hurricane Warning continues from Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch continues from north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua, and from south of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border. A Tropical Storm Warning continues from north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua, San Andres, and from Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin late tonight or Thursday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres tonight, and within the warning area on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by Thursday night.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane warning area. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through Thursday. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western Panama and southern Costa Rica through tonight.
Get the latest on Otto by going directly to the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OTTO
