Tweets by @NYFedResearch

Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
Just Released: Regional Business Surveys Point to Growth in Economic Activity
A striking finding in the New York Fed’s regional business surveys for December—Business Leaders Survey and Empire State Manufacturing Survey—is just how much more optimistic firms have become about future conditions. For instance, manufacturers are more optimistic than they’ve been in nearly five years.
By Jason Bram and Richard Deitz
Are All CLOs Equal?
Our bloggers examine whether managers of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) that commingle the lending and collateral management roles are compelled to trade differently as a result of better access to information. They find that CLOs affiliated with banks appear to use informational advantages to lower their exposure to distressed loans.
By Stavros Peristiani and João Santos
At the N.Y. Fed: Convening on the Evolution of Work
The expanding role of technology and the growth of the gig economy are just two factors influencing how the nature of work is changing. In this post, our bloggers highlight key themes from “The Evolution of Work,” a recent conference hosted by the New York Fed in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Board and the Freelancers Union.
By Nora Fitzpatrick, Laura Pilossoph, Anika Pratt, and Aysegul Sahin
At the N.Y. Fed: Second Annual Conference on the Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market
Continuing its exploration of the evolving structure of the Treasury market, the New York Fed recently co-sponsored a second conference on the topic. At the event, participants reviewed developments in the market since the 2015 conference and the Joint Staff Report on the “flash rally” of October 15, 2014.
By Ellen Correia Golay, Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, and Nathaniel Wuerffel
The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2016
Our bloggers present the latest semiannual update to the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Among the changes since May: The GDP growth forecast for 2016 was revised to 1.8 percent, up from 1.6 percent.
By Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Abhi Gupta, Pearl Li, and Erica Moszkowski
Inflation and Japan’s Ever-Tightening Labor Market
The changing demographics of the Japanese workforce may be one reason that inflation in Japan has not picked up in recent years, despite a tight labor market. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might because women and older workers tend to have less bargaining power than prime-age males.
By Bianca De Paoli, Thomas Klitgaard, and Harry Wheeler
Research Topics
Oil Price Dynamics Report
Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?
Nowcasting Report
Weekly report tracks the evolution of the FRBNY Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new macroeconomic data releases on the forecast.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
Business Leaders Survey
Activity in the region’s service sector held steady, according to firms responding to the December Survey.
Supplemental Survey Report
Supplementary questions in the December 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Business Leaders Survey focused on recent and expected changes in the prices paid by firms for several major budget categories.
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Data updated through the second quarter of 2016 show that the unemployment rate for recent college graduates held at 4.2 percent, while the underemployment rate for this group edged down from 44.5 percent to 44.1 percent. However, fewer underemployed recent college graduates are finding good non-college jobs. Postings for both college jobs and non-college jobs declined during the second quarter.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
Recent Publications
Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy
The authors show that a classic Taylor rule exacerbates downside risk of GDP growth relative to an optimal Taylor rule, thus generating welfare losses associated with negative skewness of GDP growth.
By Tobias Adrian and Fernando Duarte, Staff Reports 804, December 2016
Dealer Balance Sheets and Bond Liquidity Provision
Do regulations decrease dealer incentives to intermediate trades? Using a unique data set of bond transactions linked to the balance sheets of individual institutions, the authors study the relationship between corporate bond market liquidity and dealer balance sheets, and track how this relationship changes over time.
By Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, and Or Shachar, Staff Reports 803, December 2016
Credit Spreads, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy
The authors have developed a model with banks that face occasionally binding leverage constraints, and in which bank’s equity interest is endogenous. In the model, they find that macroprudential policy designed to enhance the incentive for banks to issue equity lowers the probability of a financial crisis and increases welfare.
By Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto, Staff Reports 802, November 2016
Cross-Border Prudential Policy Spillovers: How Much? How Important?
In a multi-study initiative of the International Banking Research Network (IBRN), researchers from fifteen central banks and two international organizations use micro-banking data—in conjunction with a novel data set of prudential instruments—to study international spillovers of prudential policy changes for bank lending growth.
By Claudia M. Buch and Linda Goldberg, Staff Reports 801, November 2016
An Overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Consumer expectations about economic outcomes are increasingly useful inputs into forecasting models. The authors present an overview of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which collects timely information on a wide variety of household expectations regarding inflation, the labor market, and U.S. economic conditions overall.
By Olivier Armantier, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar, Staff Reports 800, November 2016
Intraday Market Making with Overnight Inventory Costs
The authors present a model of a market-making high-frequency trading firm that aims to maximize end-of-day profits, but has the additional goal of unwinding its positions before markets close. They find that the rise in price impact due to the end-of-day constraint leads to more volatile price paths intraday.
By Tobias Adrian, Agostino Capponi, Erik Vogt, and Hongzhong Zhang, Staff Reports 799, October 2016
Home Price Expectations and Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment
Household expectations about future home price growth are believed to play an important role in housing market dynamics. In this paper, the authors find that consumers’ home price expectations react to information about past local home price growth in a way that is not fully consistent with actual patterns in home prices.
By Luis Armona, Andreas Fuster, and Basit Zafar, Staff Reports 798, October 2016
Tools
Upcoming Events
Related New York Fed Content
Related External Content