EarthNow

This animation reveals long-term trends in our oceans via a NOAA dataset depicting January sea surface temperature anomalies over the time period from 1921 through 2020. Anomalies are departures from average, in this case the average is from 1854 to 2016.

Along with considerable variability from year to year, a warming trend is noticeable over time. El Niño and La Niña episodes can also be discerned in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, especially the strong El Niño patterns from 1973, 1983 and 1988.

This 1-minute animation was produced for Science On a Sphere® (SOS) exhibits but is also accessible through YouTube.

You can download the SOS content from this FTP Site.

Content includes:
– Global January Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies

References:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v5

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1225488374015942657

http://www.judytwedt.com/

As a reminder, autumn in the Northern Hemisphere is spring in the Southern Hemisphere. But except for the notable cool temperatures over parts of North America, it was warmer than normal worldwide. In fact, global land and ocean surface temperatures for September-November 2019 was the second warmest in the 140-year record. The ten warmest September–November periods have occurred since 2005, and the five warmest autumns in the last five years. If you separate out land or ocean temperatures only, both categories rank 2nd warmest for 2019.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation patterns are expected for the Northern Hemisphere winter. This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña should influence winter weather patterns.

The 2019 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season ended on November 30th with 18 named storms, including two Category 5 hurricanes: Dorian and Lorenzo. Hurricane Dorian reached Category 5 strength on September 1st as it made landfall on the Bahamas. Dorian later brushed the coasts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina before making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in the Outer Banks of North Carolina on September 6. From there, Dorian traveled north to impact Canada and Nova Scotia. In comparison, Hurricane Lorenzo unleashed most of its fury at sea as the easternmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Lorenzo traveled from the coast of Africa northward over the Atlantic Ocean to eventually impact Ireland as an extratropical storm with gusty winds and heavy rains.

The quarterly climate digest, produced seasonally, consists of a short movie (3:09 minutes) made for Science On a Sphere® (SOS) and an MP4 video accessible through YouTube.

You can download the SOS content from this FTP Site.

Content includes:
– Global 3-month land and ocean temperatures
– 3-month Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies
– Atlantic Basin 2019 Hurricane Season recap
– Satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian U.S.
– Global temperature outlook for Winter

References:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201911
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201909
https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/34315

Credits:
EarthNow Team
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

State of the climate reports are available from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Global Analysis and National Overview at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

Overview

The data for the global temperature and precipitation outlooks are provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The IRI was established as a cooperative agreement between NOAA’s Climate Program Office and Columbia University. It is part of The Earth Institute, Columbia University. These maps are constructed primarily with data from NOAA climate models, with some minor tweaks by climatologists.

Temperature Outlook

• What does RED mean on the map? The red and orange shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “warmer than normal”, than “normal”, or “cooler than normal”.
• What does BLUE mean on the map? The blue shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “cooler than normal”, than “normal”, or “warmer normal”.
• WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “cooler or warmer than normal” and also, areas where the chances for being cooler than normal, warmer than normal, and normal are equal.

It should be noted that areas in the “warmer than normal” region may still have cooler than normal days, and may not be “hot”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “warmer than normal” region are more likely to have experienced warmer than normal average temperatures.

Precipitation Outlook

• What does GREEN mean on the map? The green shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “wetter than normal”, than “normal”, or “drier than normal”.
• What does BROWN mean on the map? The brown shading on the map indicates areas that have a higher probability (greater than 35%) of being “drier than normal”, than “normal”, or “wetter than normal”.
• WHITE indicates areas that have a higher probability of being “normal” than “drier or wetter than normal” and also, areas where the chances for being drier than normal, wetter than normal, and normal are equal.

It should be noted that areas in the “wetter than normal” region may still have drier than normal days, and may not be “flooded”. This outlook only suggests that after the three months are over, those areas in the “wetter than normal” region are more likely to have experienced wetter than normal average rainfall.

High Resolution Global Seasonal Outlook Graphics for Science On a Sphere^®

Background and References:

Starting in April 2017, the IRI probabilistic seasonal climate forecast product is based on a re-calibration of model output from the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble Project (NMME). This includes the ensemble seasonal prediction systems of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NASA, NCAR and COLA/University of Miami. The output from each NMME model is re-calibrated prior to multi-model ensembling to form reliable probability forecasts. The forecasts are now presented on a 1-degree latitude-longitude grid.

IRI Seasonal Forecasts, http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2

Credits:

EarthNow Team
NOAA</h