Katherine O’Brien

Understanding the relation between the MJO and tropical cyclogenesis

• Focus:

  • Atlantic Ocean (August, September, October)

  • Northern Indian Ocean (October, November, and December) 

• Results: Probability of TC Formation, VPI, RMM, Correlation of TC Formation by VPI index

Figure 1: Average number of storms per pentad focusing on August, September, and October.

Figure 2: Average number of TC’s per MJO Index. Here the MJO is divided into 10 phases using Velocity Potential Anomalies in a Wave 1 pattern. 

Figure 3: Average number of TC’s per MJO Phase using Wheeler and Henson’s Real-time MJO Monitor.

Figure 4: Student T-test for significance at the 99th and 90th percentiles, TC formation modulation by the VPI Index.