Evaluation Products
GSD has more than 15 years of experience in evaluating weather products for transition to operations. Results from the evaluations are represented to oversight transition committees as guidance for whether the new weather product is ready for transition and provides forecast improvement over the operational standard. Publications can be found at the following web site http://esrl.noaa.gov/fiqas/publications.html
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EVENT
Event-based Verification and Evaluation of NWS gridded product Tooluses our foundational principles, which include: forecast quality must be measured relative to how the forecast is used to make decisions, within the same assessment framework so that forecast comparisons are meaningful, and relative to the current operational forecast baselines so that forecast improvements can be measured.
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In-Depth Forecast Evaluations
In-depth forecast evaluations are performed in order to assess the quality and accuracy of an experimental aviation weather product that is expected to transition into NWS or FAA operations. The evaluations are done independently of the product developers and tests are performed that allow a measure of forecast quality as it compares to an operational forecast standard. The evaluations are conducted in the context of the products use in making operational decisions that may be affected by weather.
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Consumer-Specific Evaluation Research
Consumer-Specific Evaluation Research is research into the connection between the forecast weather quality and the application of the weather information to specific operational decisions. The Forecast Verification Section is aggressively developing assessment techniques that provide a measure of forecast quality in the context of operation decisions. These operational measures provide the bridge between the forecast weather and the integration of the weather information into automated operational decisions. Evaluation concepts in the context of aviation strategic planning are the focus for current Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section efforts. These include: incorporating strategic planning decision points for accumulation of the statistical measures; introducing operational spatial domains, such as ARTCC boundaries, high level altitude sectors, and aviation flow control boundaries (e.g. AFP and ground stops) into the assessment mechanics to bring together the forecasts and observations in an operationally meaningful way; and developing metrics that link forecast quality directly to operational constraints such as air space capacity for feeding assessment information directly to automated NextGen decision tools.
