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Harmful Algal Blooms in Chesapeake Bay

Daily nowcasts illustrating the relative abundance of Karlodinium micrum, a harmful algal bloom (HAB) species, in Chesapeake Bay are currently generated by applying a statistical habitat model for K. micrum to near-real time estimates of salinity and sea-surface temperature in the bay. The preliminary K. micrum habitat model quantitatively relates these ambient conditions, as well as time of year, to the relative abundance of K. micrum. The most current K. micrum nowcast, as well as information describing the procedure used in creating the maps, are staged on a Web site (http://155.206.18.162/cbay_hab/) for dissemination.

The procedure to nowcast the distribution pattern of K. micrum exploits our ability to both estimate the relative abundance of K. micrum from salinity and temperature and acquire these two environmental variables in near-real time using hydrodynamic models and satellite measurements. We plan to develop and implement an operational system that will nowcast and forecast the likelihood of blooms of this and several other HAB species in Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries over the next five years.

Figure (right): Nowcast of the relative abundance of the ichthyotoxic dinoflagellate Karlodinium micrum in Chesapeake Bay on April 20, 2005.

This project represents collaboration between scientists from the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, the University of Evansville, and NOAA. Contributed by Christopher Brown, NESDIS / STAR / CoRP / SCSB.