Hurricane Intensification Forecast Tool![]()
The intensification of Hurricane Katrina occurred when the cyclone crossed regions of high oceanic heat content, in regions of high dynamic topography detected by altimetry. Coincident SST data alone does NOT reveal the threat of hurricane intensification due to the presence of the Loop Current and warm-core rings. Satellite altimeter measurements of sea surface height are routinely used by NOAA to estimate tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), essentially a measure of the amount of heat stored in the upper ocean, and its impact on hurricane intensity. The plot on the bottom shows Katrina intensified to a Category 5 hurricane as it passed over a region of high TCHP in the Gulf of Mexico. In contrast, the plot on the top shows uniformly warm sea surface temperatures along Katrina's path. |
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