Feb 16, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Sat Feb 16 01:02:31 UTC 2013 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 160058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS INTO VA... FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO VA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIVER OF WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN 800-600 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 02/16/2013 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z