Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 160058
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
   
   VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS INTO VA...
   
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER
   TONIGHT FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO VA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
   UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH. THIS WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIVER OF WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN
   800-600 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
   INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT.
   HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
   SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/16/2013
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z