Mission

The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program has organized the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force to advance NOAA’s and the Nation’s capability to model and predict sources of S2S predictability. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to help close the gap in prediction skill and products between traditional weather and seasonal lead times.

The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP-supported scientists from universities, research laboratories, and NOAA centers and laboratories funded through the fiscal year 2016 MAPP–National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Technology Integration (STI) grant competition "Research to Advance Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal Phenomena". Members of the Task Force also include MAPP-funded scientists participating in the Subseasonal Experiment, SubX, an interagency research project to test subseasonal prediction models for NWS operations selected via a MAPP-NOAA Climate Test Bed competition, as well as invited scientists from across the community with interest and expertise in the S2S prediction problem.

Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for MAPP-supported PIs to share new datasets, methodologies, and results, as well as to ultimately synthesize their collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. The Task Force collaborates and coordinates with ongoing national and international S2S prediction, research, and applications efforts, such as the NOAA NWS/STI Weeks 3-4: Improving Mid-range Weather Outlooks Initiative, the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface Panel, and World Meteorological Organization Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project.

The S2S Prediction Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2016.