NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe storms are expected to develop by this evening and spread across the lower Mississippi Valley tonight through Saturday morning, with a couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds all possible. Strong thunderstorms with at least some severe-weather potential are also possible near the southern California coast this afternoon.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Fri (01/20)	Sat (01/21)	Sun (01/22)	Mon (01/23)	Tue (01/24)	Wed (01/25)	Thu (01/26)	Fri (01/27)
Severe	Enhanced	Enhanced	Enhanced	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	No Critical	Elevated	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 21 Jan

Tornado Probabilities: 21 Jan

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 21 Jan

Severe Hail Probabilities: 21 Jan

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 21 Jan

Significant Wind Probabilities: 21 Jan

Significant Hail Probabilities: 21 Jan

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


report time

Full-size plot here.

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Page last modified: January 20 2017 12:15 UTC

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Latest SPC Publications

Hart, J.A., and A.E. Cohen, 2016: The Challenge of Forecasting Significant Tornadoes from June to October Using Convective Parameters. Published in Weather and Forecasting.
Hart, J.A., and A.E. Cohen, 2016: The Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model. Published in Weather and Forecasting.
Corfidi, S.F., M.C. Coniglio, A.E. Cohen, C.M. Mead, 2016: A Proposed Revision to the Definition of "Derecho". Published in BAMS June 2016.
Corfidi, S.F., R.H. Johns, M.A. Darrow, 2016: The Great Basin Derecho of 31 May 1994. Published in Weather and Forecasting.
Line, W.E., T.J. Schmit, D.T. Lindsey, and S.J. Goodman, 2016: Use of Geostationary Super Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery by the Storm Prediction Center. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1268K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, and P.T. Marsh, 2015: Diagnosing the Conditional Probability of Tornado Damage Rating Using Environmental and Radar Attributes. Published in Weather and Forecasting.
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jan 19, 2017	Tornado: 5	Wind: 5	Hail: 0

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