On these pages you will find information about and access to a suite of climate and other scenarios produced as input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. There are documents, graphics, references to data sets, and other resources that have been prepared to depict a range of plausible future conditions against which risks, vulnerability, and opportunities can be assessed at regional and national scale. In addition to providing input to the National Climate Assessment, these scenarios are designed to be useful to a variety of other users including researchers, technical report teams, and decision makers.

Most of the information currently available served as input to the Third National Climate Assessment (2014). Over the next several years, we expect to evolve the scenarios to keep them up to date and make them as user friendly as possible, in support of the ongoing assessment process. When available, new scenarios information will be posted. See the announcements page for the latest updates.

Please use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate to these documents and resources.

Download summaries of the Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios developed for the Third NCA (2014)

The National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is conducted under the authority of the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. The GCRA requires a report to the President and the Congress every four years that integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The Act requires assessment of the effects of global change (both human-induced and natural) on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity. The time periods for analysis include current conditions as well as projections of major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

National climate assessments provide status reports about climate change science and impacts. They are based on observations collected across the country as well as research that uses projections from climate system and other models. The NCA incorporates advances in the understanding of climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems, and provides integrated analyses of impacts and vulnerability.

The NCA integrates scientific information from multiple sources and highlights key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. It also helps the federal government prioritize climate research investments that will provide science for use by communities around the country to plan more sustainably for our future.