NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification

Contents

1. Introduction
2. Forecast verification procedures
3. Annual NHC verification reports
4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
5. Official error trends
6. Model error trends
7. NHC official forecast error database
8. Performance measures and goals
9. References

3. Annual NHC verification reports

Links are given below to the historical annual NHC verification reports from 1968-2011. The statistics contained in these reports were based on forecast and verification procedures in place at the time each report was written, which often differ from current practices (e.g., depressions were not verified in these annual reports until 2001). In addition, there have been changes in the tropical cyclone best track database over the years (e.g., the upgrade of 1992's Hurricane Andrew from category 4 to category 5). Consequently, the verification statistics that appear in these annual reports may differ from those presented elsewhere in these pages based on current practices and datasets.

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Next: Official five-year mean errors and distributions