Endnotes for Issues in Focus

50.  Appendix tables in this report also include projections for the average prices of all grades of imported crude oil. 

51.  M.A. Kromer and J.B. Heywood, Electric Powertrains: Opportunities and Challenges in the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet, LFEE 2007-03 RP (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, May 2007), web site http://web.mit.edu/sloan-auto-lab/research/ beforeh2/files/kromer_electric_powertrains.pdf. 

52.  Electric Power Research Institute, Advanced Batteries for Electric-Drive Vehicles, 1009299 (Palo Alto, CA, May 2004), web site www.evworld.com/library/EPRI_ adv_batteries.pdf; and A. Simpson, Cost-Benefit Analysis of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technology, NREL/CP-540-40485 (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 2006), web site www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/vsa/pdfs/40485.pdf. 

53.  U.S. House of Representatives, 110th Congress, “Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008,” H.R. 6049, web site www.govtrack.us/congress/bill. xpd?bill=h110-6049. 

54.  F.R. Kalhammer, B.M. Kopf, D.H. Swan, V.P. Roan, and M.O. Walsh, Status and Prospects for Zero Emissions Vehicle Technology: Report of the ARB Independent Expert Panel 2007 (Sacramento, CA: State of California Air Resources Board, April 13, 2007), web site www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevreview/zev_panel_report.pdf. 

55.  A. Bandivadekar, K. Bodek, L. Cheah, C. Evans, T. Groode, J. Heywood, E. Kasseris, M. Kromer, and M. Weiss, On the Road in 2035: Reducing Transportation’s Petroleum Consumption and GHG Emissions, LFEE 2008-05 RP (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 2008), web site http:// web.mit.edu/sloan-auto-lab/research/beforeh2/ otr2035. 

56.  The Alaska OCS has not been subject to leasing restrictions since 2007. In the North Aleutian Basin of Alaska, the Congressional moratorium was lifted in 2004, and the Presidential withdrawal was lifted in 2007. 

57. See Legislation and Regulations, “Regulations Related to the Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria and Implications of Not Renewing the Moratoria.” 

58.  The ban on areas in the Eastern and Central Gulf of Mexico through 2022 imposed by the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 remains in place. AEO2009 assumes no restrictions on drilling in the Atlantic and Pacific OCS through 2030. 

59.  U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Draft Proposed Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Program 2010-2015 (Washington, DC, January 2009), web site www. mms.gov/5%2Dyear/2010-2015New5-YearHome. htm. 

60.  This discussion is based largely on data from U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves, Strategic Significance of America’s Oil Shale Resource, Volume II, Oil Shale Resources, Technology and Economics (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.fossil.energy.gov/ programs/reserves/npr/publications/npr_strategic_ significancev2.pdf. 

61.  The Fischer assay is a standardized laboratory test for determining oil and natural gas yields from oil shale rock. 

62.  Energy Information Administration, Advance Summary, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, 2007 Annual Report, DOE/EIA-0216(2007) Advance Summary (Washington, DC, October 2008), Table 1, p. 5, web site www.eia.gov/ pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/advanced_ summary/current/adsum.pdf. 

63.  The GTL option is represented in NEMS in the form of facilities with capacities of 34,000 barrel per day that can be added incrementally when oil and petroleum product prices are sufficiently high to make their operation profitable. 

64.  Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Oil and Gas, Alaska Oil and Gas Report 2007 (Anchorage, AK, July 2007), Table III.1, p. 3-2, web site www. dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/products/publications/annual/ report.htm. 

65.  K.W. Sherwood and J.D. Craig, Prospects for Development of Alaska Natural Gas: A Review as of January 2001 (Anchorage, AK: U.S. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service, Resource Evaluation Office), Chapters 4 and 5, web site www.mms.gov/ alaska/re/natgas/akngas2.pdf. Resource recovery costs were updated for this analysis, to reflect the escalation of drilling costs over time. 

66.  All 2007 oil and natural gas supply and consumption figures are taken from Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384 (2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008), web site www. eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/contents.html. 

67.  Crude oil and natural gas resource figures are those represented in NEMS, which are based on the most current U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Minerals Management Service undiscovered resource estimates. They include proven crude oil and natural gas reserves as of January 1, 2007. 

68.  When the entire natural gas resource base in Alaska is included in the U.S. natural gas resource estimate, the total represents more than 75 years of domestic supply at 2007 consumption rates. 

69.  INGAA Foundation, Availability, Economics and Production Potential of North American Unconventional Natural Gas Supplies, F-2008-3, Table 32 (Washington, DC, November 2008). 

70.  Energy Information Administration, 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey data, web site www.eia.gov/emeu/mecs, supplemented with other EIA industrial data. 

71.  S.C. Davis, S.W. Diegel, and R.G. Boundy, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 27, ORNL-6981 (Oak Ridge, TN, 2008), Table 2.5, web site http://cta.ornl. gov/data/index.shtml. 

72.  U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center, “Alternative Fueling Station Total Counts by State and Fuel Type,” web site www.afdc.energy. gov/afdc/fuels/stations_counts.html; and U.S. Census Bureau, “Industry Statistics Sampler, NAICS 4471, Gasoline Stations,” web site www.census.gov/econ/ census02/data/industry/E4471.HTM. Census Bureau numbers are based on the firm’s primary business function and do not include general retail establishments, like Walmart and Costco, that sell gasoline and diesel. NPN Magazine (web site www.npnweb.com), reports more than 160,000 U.S. service stations on its NPN MarketFacts 2008 Highlights page. 

73.  Cambridge Energy Research Associates, “Construction Costs for New Power Plants Continue to Escalate: IHS CERA Power Capital Costs Index” (press release, May 27, 2008), web site www.cera.com/aspx/cda/ public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx ?CID=9505. 

74.  Cambridge Energy Research Associates, “IHS CERA Power Capital Costs Index Shows Power Plant Construction Costs Decreasing Slightly” (press release, December 17, 2008), web site http://press.ihs.com/ article_display.cfm?article_id=3953. 

75.  Closed-loop biomass is defined as any organic material from a plant that is cultivated exclusively for use in producing electricity at a qualifying facility. 

76.  Solar installations received the credit for a brief period, from 2004 to 2005. Certain types of coal facilities can claim a tax credit under Section 45 of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, and some qualifying nuclear plants may also claim a production tax credit. 

77.  Geothermal energy is also eligible for a 10-percent Federal ITC, but a facility cannot claim both credits. 

78.  Eligibility is limited to “incremental” generation resulting from capital investments at existing hydroelectric facilities. 

79.  Open-loop biomass includes waste and residue materials from certain agricultural, forestry, and urban or industrial processes. 

80.  Marine resources must be in service by December 31, 2011, to be eligible for the PTC. 

81.  See, for example, J.P. Harper, M.D. Karcher, and M. Bolinger, Wind Project Financing Structures: A Review & Comparative Analysis, LBNL-63434 (Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, September 2007), web site http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP/ reports/63434.pdf. 

82.  C. Carlson and G.E. Metcalf, “Energy Tax Incentives and the Alternative Minimum Tax,” National Tax Journal, Vol. 61, No. 3 (September 2008), web site www.entrepreneur.com/tradejournals/article/ 190149936.html. 

83.  Because the projection does not show any use of closed-loop resources, the open-loop credit value is assumed. EIA currently does not model marine energy technologies. 

84.  Using a real discount rate of 7 percent. PTC costs for 2009, estimated at $3.6 billion, are not included. 

85.  The participating States are New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Maryland. See Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, web site www. rggi.org/states. 

86.  Western Climate Initiative, “Draft Design of the Regional Cap-and-Trade Program” (July 23, 2008), web site www.westernclimateinitiative.org/ ewebeditpro/items/O104F18808.PDF. 

87.  Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord, “Energy Security and Climate Stewardship Platform for the Midwest 2007,” web site www. midwesternaccord.org/Platform.pdf.

88.  State of California, Assembly Bill No. 32, “California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006,” web site www.arb.ca.gov/cc/docs/ab32text.pdf. 

89. D. Samuelsohn, “Senate Emissions Bill Headed for Defeat,” Greenwire (June 5, 2008), web site www. eenews.net/eenewspm/2008/06/05/archive/1?terms= Boxer-Lieberman-Warner+ (subscription site). 

90.  L. Johnston, E. Hausman, A. Sommer, B. Biewald, T. Woolf, D. Schlissel, A. Roschelle, and D. White, Climate Change and Power: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Costs and Electricity Resource Planning (Cambridge, MA: Synapse Energy Economics, March 2, 2007), web site www.synapse-energy.com/Downloads/Synapse Paper.2007-03.0.Climate-Change-and-Power.A0009. pdf. 

91. See Morgan Stanley, “Leading Wall Street Banks Establish The Carbon Principles” (Press Release, February 4, 2008), web site www.morganstanley.com/ about/press/articles/6017.html. 

92. The LW110 case is based on S. 2191, which is the most recent GHG bill analyzed by EIA as of November 2008. The choice is not meant to imply that EIA supports or does not support S. 2191 or any other particular past or future proposal. 

93. Energy Information Administration, Energy and Economic Impacts of S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007, SR/OIAF/2008-01 (Washington, DC, April 2008), web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/s2191/index.html.