Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) focus on the factors expected to shape U.S. energy markets through 2040. The projections provide a basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serve as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.

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Key updates made for the AEO2016 Reference case include the following:

The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Reference case included as part of this complete report (released in July 2016) has been updated from the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case (released in April 2015). The updated Reference case reflects new legislation and regulations enacted since April 2015, model changes, and data updates. The key model and data updates include:

Macroeconomic

• Updated historical data on industries and employment
• Updated information on natural gas extraction from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
• Extended dynamic Input-Output framework from 2013 to 2040
• Disaggregation of three pulp and paper subindustries included in the NEMS macroeconomic model: pulp and paper mills, paperboard and containers, and all other pulp and paper
• Disaggregated ethanol, flat glass, and lime and gypsum subindustries in the Industrial Output and Employment Model
• Incremental electricity investment required to meet the standards in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP) [7]
• Re-estimated commercial floorspace model, using data from Dodge Data and Analytics, and transformation of floorspace estimates to projected growth rates rather than levels

Residential, commercial, and industrial

• New buildings equipment standards promulgated since the AEO2015 Reference case was completed, including standards affecting commercial cooling equipment, commercial furnaces, residential boilers, commercial oil-fired water heaters, fluorescent lamps, commercial pumps, and commercial ice makers and beverage vending machines
• Cost and energy impacts of energy efficiency activities in support of the CPP through rebates for energy-efficient buildings enduse equipment, based on EIA analysis and a report by Leidos [8]

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