‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: December 6, 2016  |  Next Release Date: January 10, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Glossary › FAQS ›

Natural Gas

  • Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.3 Bcf/d decline from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual production decline since 2005. In 2017, forecast natural gas production increases by an average of 2.5 Bcf/d from the 2016 level.
  • Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports, contribute to the Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an average of $2.49 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 to $3.27/MMBtu in 2017. NYMEX contract values for March 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 1 suggest that a price range from $2.20/MMBtu to $5.04/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices in March 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 4.53 2.72 2.57 3.37
Residential Sector 10.94 10.36 10.24 11.02
Commercial Sector 8.88 7.90 7.34 8.12
Industrial Sector 5.61 3.91 3.56 4.52
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 75.34 78.78 77.48 79.94
Dry Gas Production 70.93 74.14 72.49 74.80
Pipeline Imports 7.22 7.20 7.91 7.60
LNG Imports 0.16 0.25 0.23 0.21
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 13.94 12.63 11.86 12.51
Commercial Sector 9.50 8.76 8.48 8.91
Industrial Sector 20.95 20.64 21.04 21.31
Electric Power Sector 22.32 26.34 27.60 26.75
Total Consumption 72.86 74.65 75.22 75.96
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days 1.9 -10.2 -5.6 6.5
Cooling Degree Days -0.7 14.7 4.4 -8.1
Commercial Employment 2.1 2.5 2.2 1.5
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production -0.8 1.3 0.5 1.8

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Custom Table Builder ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

In beta testing:

STEO Data browser ›

Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices PDF
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices PDF
Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data PDF
Related Figures
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price XLSX PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Prices XLSX PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports XLSX PNG
U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage XLSX PNG
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth XLSX PNG
U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Days XLSX PNG
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days XLSX PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions XLSX PNG
U.S. Total Industrial Production Index XLSX PNG
U.S. Disposable Income XLSX PNG
Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
Natural Gas Weekly Update Weekly
Peak Underground Working Storage Capacity Annual
2016-2017 Winter Fuels Outlook Oct-2016 PDF
2016 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow Apr-2016 PDF
2015-2016 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow Oct-2015 PDF
2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow Apr-2015 PDF
Weather Sensitivity in Natural Gas Markets Oct-2014 PDF
2014-2015 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow Oct-2014 PDF
2014 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages Jun-2014 PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices Mar-2014 PDF
Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter Jan-2013 PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations Sep-2012 PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Jun-2012 PDF
Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook Dec-2010 PDF
Trends in U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption 23-Jun-2010 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF
The Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast May-2009 PDF

About the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Previous STEO Forecasts:

Other EIA Forecasts: